MSCI - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 09 28
MSCI Inc. (MSCI:USA) currently trades at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings with a 38.0x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about their investments, growth opportunities, and wealth management subscription salesSpecifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to meet cash flow guidance, sustain their collections and working capital, and maintain new wealth management subscription sales. Additionally, they may have concerns about their planned $140mn in investments and the different kinds of processes and models clients are bringing to the index. Management may also lack confidence in their ability to continue successfully launching their fixed income models, sustain long-term growth opportunities on futures and options, and create a larger variety of products through expanding client segments. Moreover, they may have concerns about the repercussions of restructuring their client business, and their ability to continuously improve technology in future years and sustain the performance of climate products. They may also have concerns about the challenges around their insurance business, the continued market volatility, and their ability to work remotely with their clients
MSCI is a provider of decision support tools and services for the global investment community. The company's segments are: Index, in which Clients use the company's indexes in various areas of the investment process, including index-linked product creation; Analytics, which provides risk management, performance attribution and portfolio management content, applications and services; Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG), which helps institutional investors understand how ESG considerations can impact the long-term risk and reward of their portfolio and individual security-level investments; and Real Estate, which includes research, reporting, market data and benchmarking offerings.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
- GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
- Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
- Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
- Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
- Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
- Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
- Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
- The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
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