Report
Valens Research

NDAQ - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 02 23

Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) currently trades near corporate but above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 24.1x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 46%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 40% in 2022, albeit with weaker 25% Uniform asset shrinkage.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $14, representing significant potential equity downside for the firm. That said, the firm is unlikely to shrink its balance sheet at this rate going forward.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management is confident about their growth opportunities and product offerings.
Underlying
Nasdaq Inc.

Nasdaq is a holding company. Nasdaq is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company manages, operates and provides its products and services in business segments: Market Services, which includes equity derivative trading and clearing, cash equity trading, fixed income and commodities trading and clearing and trade management services businesses; Corporate Services, which includes listing services and corporate solutions businesses; Information Services, which includes market data, index, and investment data and analytics; and Market Technology, which provides and delivers solutions across the trade lifecycle via the Nasdaq Financial Framework.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

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