Report
Valens Research

NWL - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 04 21

Newell Brands (NWL) currently trades near corporate, but above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 24.5x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to compress to 13% in 2026, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Similarly, analysts expect Uniform ROA to contract to 12% by 2023, accompanied by 2% Uniform asset contraction.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $13, representing approximately 40% equity downside for the firm.

However, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management is confident about competition, productivity, and growth.
Underlying
Newell Brands Inc

Newell Brands is a global marketer of consumer and commercial products. The company's segments include: Appliances and Cookware, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes a various line of household products; Food and Commercial, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes a various line of household products; Home and Outdoor Living, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes home fragrance and home security products; and Learning and Development, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes writing instruments, including markers and highlighters, pens and pencils.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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