Report
Valens Research

NFLX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 02 07

 Netflix, Inc. (NFLX:USA) currently trades at historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 74.6x Uniform P/E, implying bullish expectations for the firm. However, management has concerns about costs, investments, and pricing

 Specifically, management may be concerned about high expected content spend in 2019 and 2020, and may be downplaying concerns about the magnitude of write-downs as a result of the societal reset around sexual harassment. Additionally, they may be exaggerating the success of their investment strategy and its impact on results. Moreover, they may have concerns about their ability to raise prices efficiently going forward, as well as their ability to continue growing globally
Underlying
Netflix Inc.

Netflix is engaged in subscription streaming entertainment service including TV series, documentaries and feature films across a variety of genres and languages. Members can watch as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, on any internet-connected screen. Members can play, pause and resume watching, without commercials. Additionally, several members in the United States subscribe to the company's DVD-by-mail service. The company improves its streaming content with a focus on a programming mix of content. The company's members can download a selection of titles for offline viewing. The company operates its business as a global operating segment.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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Valens Research

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