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Valens Research

NRG - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 04 27

NRG Energy (NRG) currently trades below corporate yet near historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 14.1x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to compress to 11%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

However, analysts expect Uniform ROA to contract to 19% by 2023, accompanied by 17% Uniform asset shrinkage.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $15, representing significant potential equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about the Direct Energy integration and pricing.
Underlying
NRG Energy Inc.

NRG Energy is an energy company. The company produces and sells electricity and related products and services in primary power markets in the United States and Canada. The company sells energy, services, and sustainable products and services directly to retail customers under the names NRG, Reliant, Green Mountain Energy, Stream and XOOM Energy, as well as other brand names owned by the company The company's segments are: Retail, which includes retail energy, portable solar and battery products home services, and a variety of bundled products; and Generation, which includes plant operations, commercial operations, development, engineering and construction, asset management, energy services and other related functions.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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