Report
Valens Research

PH - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 03 02

Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH) currently trades below corporate, but above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with an 18.7x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to remain flat through 2026, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to expand to a new peak of 29% by 2023, accompanied by immaterial Uniform asset shrinkage.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $323, representing approximately 9% equity upside for the firm.

However, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about demand, growth acquisitions, and profitability.
Underlying
Parker-Hannifin Corporation

Parker Hannifin is a manufacturer of motion and control technologies and systems, providing engineered solutions for a variety of mobile, industrial and aerospace markets. The company has two reporting segments: Diversified Industrial and Aerospace Systems. The company's Diversified Industrial segment products consist of a range of motion-control and fluid systems and components, which are categorized into the following groups: Engineered Materials, Filtration, Fluid Connectors, Instrumentation, and Motion Systems. The company's Aerospace Systems Segment products are used in commercial and military airframe and engine programs and include control actuation systems and components and pneumatic control components.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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