Report
Valens Research

PAYC - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 03 17

Paycom Software (PAYC) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 48.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 40%, accompanied by 12% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to slightly improve to 26% in 2023, accompanied by 17% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $236, representing approximately 22% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about growth opportunities, client retention, and productivity.
Underlying
Paycom Software Inc.

Paycom Software is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as Software-as- a-Service. The company provides functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the complete employment lifecycle, from recruitment to retirement. The company's solution requires virtually no customization and is based on a core system of record maintained in a single database for various HCM functions, including talent acquisition, time and labor management, payroll, talent management and human resources management applications. The company's solution was developed in-house and is based on a single platform, there is no need to integrate, update or access various databases.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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Valens Research

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