Report
Valens Research

PSN:GBR - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 04 23

Persimmon Plc (PSN:GBR) is currently trading below recent average valuations relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 9.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is expecting Uniform ROA to decline from 34% in 2017 to 16% through 2022, representing levels not seen since 2014

Specifically, the market appears to expect the firm to struggle to improve volumes going forward as a result of Brexit negotiations, and also appears to lack confidence in the firm's ability to sustain improvements in their gross margin through supply chain investments
Underlying
Persimmon Plc

Persimmon is a holding company, engaged in house building, constructing a range of homes across England, Scotland and Wales. Co. trades under the brand names of: Persimmon Homes, which delivers a range of new homes from apartments to large family homes throughout the U.K.; Charles Church, which complements Persimmon by delivering executive housing in premium locations across the U.K.; Westbury Partnerships, which focuses on affordable social housing. Co. sells these homes to housing associations across the U.K.; and Space4, which operates an offsite manufacturing plant producing insulated wall panels and roof cassettes as a fabric first solution to the construction of new homes.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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Valens Research

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