PFE - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 12 17
Pfizer Inc. (PFE:USA) currently trades above recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 17.4x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has muted expectations for the firm, and management has concerns about Eliquis' positioning, their Innovative Health business, and new drug approvals through 2022Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to maintain Eliquis' strong positioning in the NOAC class, and may be concerned about the review process for their lorlatinib and glasdegib oncology candidates. Moreover, they may have concerns about their ability to meet expectations for number of approvals over the next several years, and may have concerns about changing of rebate structure and pricing throughout the year. Additionally, they may lack confidence in their assertion that the biosimilar market will see similar margin trajectory as sterile injectables, and in the potential of their growth prospects in their innovative medicines segment. Furthermore, they may be concerned about their established medicines business, and may lack confidence in their ability to execute on the pipeline and launch of their Essential Health business. Also, they may lack confidence in their ability to maintain higher levels of R&D productivity, and strong revenue growth in their Innovative Health business. They may also be concerned about their ability to expand margins after the Lyrica LOE, and about their 2019 guidance
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