Report
Valens Research

PM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 11 12

Phillip Morris International Inc. (PM:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with an 18.2x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in muted expectations for the firm, but management is confident about their IQOS performance, combustible product outlook, and growth in the Philippine market

Specifically, management generated an excitement marker when saying that it's difficult to pick one or two IQOS markets that are particularly interesting since many are doing well. Additionally, they are confident that the robust fundamentals for combustible products support their 2018 business outlook, and that there is a small pricing difference between their Marlboro Heatsticks and Marlboro heated tobacco. Furthermore, they are confident that Marlboro continues to grow its share in the Philippine market, helping lift the overall share
Underlying
Philip Morris International Inc.

Philip Morris International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a tobacco company engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, smoke-free products and associated electronic devices and accessories, and other nicotine-containing products in markets outside the United States. The company's portfolio comprises international and local brands including Marlboro, which is complemented in the premium-price category by Parliament. The company's other international cigarette brands are Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark and Philip Morris. The company also owns various local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch