Report
Valens Research

PM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 01 11

Philip Morris (PM) currently trades below corporate but near historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with an 18.4x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade to 56%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 67% in 2022, accompanied by 1% Uniform asset shrinkage.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $102, representing approximately 5% equity upside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about growth, supply chain constraints, and cost savings.
Underlying
Philip Morris International Inc.

Philip Morris International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a tobacco company engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, smoke-free products and associated electronic devices and accessories, and other nicotine-containing products in markets outside the United States. The company's portfolio comprises international and local brands including Marlboro, which is complemented in the premium-price category by Parliament. The company's other international cigarette brands are Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark and Philip Morris. The company also owns various local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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