Report
Valens Research

PII - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 06 05

Polaris, Inc. (PII:USA) currently trades near corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 18.6x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, but management is confident about their market share gains, retail momentum, and liquidity

Specifically, management is confident that Indian Motorcycles delivered strong market share gains and positive retail, that Pontoon delivered market share gains and positive retail even though Q1 is generally weak for Boats, and that they had strong liquidity despite a somewhat lenient capital management process
Underlying
Polaris Inc.

Polaris designs, engineers and manufactures powersports vehicles which include, off-road vehicles, including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles for recreational and utility use, snowmobiles, motorcycles, global adjacent markets vehicles, including commercial, government and defense vehicles, and boats. The company's products, together with related Parts, Garments and Accessories, as well as aftermarket accessories and apparel, are sold through dealers, distributors and retail stores principally located in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, Australia and Mexico.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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