Report
Valens Research

LUV - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 05 13

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV:USA) currently trades at a premium relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) assets, with a 1.4x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about pent-up travel demand, flight planning initiatives, and the MAX aircraft's performance

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain fuel efficiency gains, capitalize on pent-up leisure travel demand, and further execute their flight planning and fleet modernization initiatives. Additionally, they may have concerns about the implementation of the Sabre GDS platform and its impact on customer relationships. Management may also lack confidence in their ability to open more destination stations, fill Boeing MAX seats to full capacity, and execute an all-new maintenance recordkeeping system for their Boeing 737-700s. Furthermore, they may have concerns about the sustainability of MAX's performance and inconsistencies in MAX's electrical systems
Underlying
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO.

Southwest Airlines operates Southwest Airlines, a passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and near-international markets. The company has Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet and serves destinations in various states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and other near-international countries such as Mexico, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Aruba, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. The company principally provides point-to-point service, which allows for direct nonstop routing. The company also provides a suite of digital platforms to support Customers' needs prior to and during the course of their travel.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch