Report
Valens Research

STOR - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 05 02

STORE Capital Corporation (STOR) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 26.4x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to remain stable at 5%-6% levels, accompanied by 7% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 7% in 2023, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset shrinkage.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $15, representing approximately 48% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about growth opportunities, financing activities, and portfolio initiatives.
Underlying
STORE Capital Corporation

Store Capital is an internally managed net-lease real estate investment trust, that is engaged in the acquisition, investment and management of Single Tenant Operational Real Estate properties. The company's customers operate across a variety of industries within the service, retail and manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy, with restaurants, early childhood education centers, furniture stores, health clubs and movie theaters representing the main industries in the company's portfolio. From time to time, the company also provides mortgage financing to its customers.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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