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Valens Research

Ticker - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 04 26

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG:USA) currently trades near historical averages relative to
UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.4x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market
has muted expectations for the firm, and management is concerned about organic oil
production growth, drilling operations in South Texas, and their well exploration
program.
Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain organic oil
production growth, lease land at favorable rates, and meet growth forecasts.
Moreover, they may be exaggerating the quality of their inventory, and concerned
about the sustainability of growth in active wells in the Delaware Basin, and
improvements in drilling days said wells. Also, they may be concerned about the
complexity and quality of well drilling in South Texas, and the potential of their well
exploration and drilling capital program. In addition, management may be
exaggerating the consistency of their Eagle Ford oil segment, improvements in well
spacing, and the consistency and productivity of their operating teams.
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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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