Report
Valens Research

TJX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 01 27

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) currently trades near corporate and above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 23.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to rebound to a new high of 25% in 2026, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 21% by 2023, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset shrinkage.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $45, representing approximately 37% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about inventory, profitability, and sustainability.
Underlying
TJX Companies Inc

TJX Companies is an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. The company's segments comprised of: Marmaxx, which sells family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise; HomeGoods, which provides a range of home fashions, including home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop and cookware as well as pet, kids and gourmet food departments; TJX Canada, which operates the Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls chains in Canada; and TJX International, which operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe and the T.K. Maxx chain in Australia.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
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  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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