Report
Valens Research

TRU - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 12 21

TransUnion (TRU) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 33.3x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, accompanied by 7% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 36% in 2022, accompanied by 6% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $76, representing approximately 34% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about growth and their recent acquisitions.
Underlying
TransUnion

TransUnion is an information and insights company. The company provides consumer reports, actionable insights and analytics such as credit and other scores, and decisioning capabilities to businesses. The company has the following reportable segments: United States Markets, which provides consumer reports, actionable insights and analytics such as credit and other scores, and decisioning capabilities to businesses; International, which provides services similar to its United States Markets segment to businesses in select regions outside the United States; and Consumer Interactive, which provides solutions that help consumers manage their personal finances and take precautions against identity theft.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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