UBER - Valens Credit Report - 2024 03 06
Cash bond markets are overstating credit risk with a YTW of 5.931% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.724%, while CDS markets are slightly overstating risk with a CDS of 89bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 38bps. In addition, Moody's is overstating UBER's fundamental credit risk with its Ba3 credit rating, four notches below Valens' IG4 (Baa2) credit rating.Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As a positive, all members of management are material owners of UBER's equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they are aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company. In addition, management has low change-in-control compensation relative to their average annual compensation indicating they are not sufficiently incentivized to pursue a takeover or sale of the company
Uber Technologies provides ride hailing services. The company develops application for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. The company serves customers in the United States and Canada, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pacific markets, excluding its discontinued China operations.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
- GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
- Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
- Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
- Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
- Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
- Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
- Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
- The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming
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