Report
Valens Research

UBER - Valens Credit Report - 2020 06 24

Credit markets are grossly overstating credit risk with a cash bond YTW of 6.904% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 0.984% and an Intrinsic CDS of 64bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is materially overstating UBER's fundamental credit risk with its highly speculative B2 credit rating five notches below Valens' XO (Baa3) credit rating

Incentives Dictate Behaviorâ„¢ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for investors. UBER's compensation framework should drive management to focus largely on margin expansion and top-line growth, which should lead to Uniform ROA improvement. Meanwhile, management members hold material amounts of UBER equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating that they are likely well-aligned with shareholders for long-term value creation

Earnings Call Forensicsâ„¢ analysis of the firm's Q1 2020 earnings call (5/7) highlights
that management is confident their actions have resulted in a $1bn+ reduction in annualized fixed costs, that their Eats business should continue to grow due to the coronavirus pandemic, and that they put transit options on their app
Underlying
Uber Technologies Inc.

Uber Technologies provides ride hailing services. The company develops application for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. The company serves customers in the United States and Canada, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pacific markets, excluding its discontinued China operations.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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