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Valens Research

UNP - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 18

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) currently trades above historical and near corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 24.5x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to record highs, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth. .

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 13% by 2022, accompanied by 1% Uniform asset shrinkage.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $177, representing approximately 26% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about efficiency, supply chain, and margins.
Underlying
Union Pacific Corporation

Union Pacific, through its operating subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, is a Class I railroad operating in the United States. The company's network included route miles, linking Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and eastern United States. gateways and providing several corridors to key Mexican gateways. The company serves the western two-thirds of the country and maintains coordinated schedules with other rail carriers for the handling of freight to and from the Atlantic Coast, the Pacific Coast, the Southeast, the Southwest, Canada, and Mexico. The company's business mix includes agricultural products, energy, industrial, and premium.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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