Report
Valens Research

UPS - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 05 03

United Parcel Service (UPS) currently trades below corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 19.6x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to remain stable at 10%-11% levels, accompanied by 7% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 13% by 2023, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $215, representing approximately 14% equity upside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management sentiment was positive about capital expenditures, profitability, and revenues.
Underlying
United Parcel Service Inc. Class B

United Parcel Service provides transportation services, primarily domestic and international letter and package delivery. The company reports its operations in three segments: United States Domestic Package, which includes the time-definite delivery of letters, documents and packages throughout the United States; International Package, which includes delivery to several countries and territories worldwide, including shipments wholly outside the United States, as well as shipments with either origin or destination outside the United States; and Supply Chain & Freight, which includes the company's Forwarding, Logistics, Coyote, Marken, UPS Mail Innovations, UPS Freight and other aggregated business units.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

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  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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