Report
Valens Research

UPWK - Valens Credit Report - 2023 02 14

Credit markets are grossly overstating credit risk, with a cash bond YTW of 7.560%
relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.976% and an Intrinsic CDS of 131bps.

That said, Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals
for credit holders. Management's compensation framework does not drive management to improve Uniform ROA and they may be encouraged to overinvest in working capital and capex or overleveraged the balance sheet to finance growth, potentially leading to reduced cash flows to service debt obligations.
Underlying
Upwork

UPWORK operates an online talent marketplace, which enables businesses to find and work with independent personnel. Freelancers on the company's platform include independent personnel and agencies of varying sizes. The company's marketplace offerings include Upwork Basic, Upwork Plus, Upwork Business, Upwork Enterprise, and Upwork Payroll. The company,'s Upwork Basic offering provides clients with access to freelance talent with verified work history on its platform and client feedback, the ability to match with the freelancers, and built-in collaboration features. The company's Upwork Plus provides all the product features of Upwork Basic, as well as access to personalized assistance, whether strategic or job-specific.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

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