MTN - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 06 10
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 44.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about macro headwinds, their season pass program, and fixed costsSpecifically, management may have concerns about sluggish growth in their Vail and Breckenridge resorts, coronavirus-related macroeconomic headwinds, and the potential of the Whistler Blackcomb Day Pass. In addition, they may be exaggerating the strength of their season pass program, their ability to offer value across-the-board, and the speed at which demand recovers when skiing conditions improve. Moreover, they may lack confidence in their ability to sustain Resort EBITDA improvements and convert lift ticket purchasers and new prospective guests to their advanced products. Furthermore, they may be downplaying concerns about their inability to reduce fixed costs in their Mountain segment, and they may be overstating the progress of their automated digital market platform implementation
Vail Resorts is a holding company and operates through various subsidiaries. The company's business segments include: Mountain, which operates various mountain resort properties and three urban ski areas, as well as ancillary services; Lodging, which provides a range of services to guests, including owned and managed lodging properties, managed condominium units, National Park Service concessionaire properties, a resort ground transportation company, and the company-owned mountain resort golf courses; and Real Estate, which includes the sale of land parcels to third-party developers and planning for future real estate development projects, including zoning and acquisition of applicable permits.
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