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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 01 31

WING currently trades at historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 50.3x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to increase from 249% in 2016 to record-high 815% levels in 2021, accompanied by 10% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have less bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to only improve to 320% levels by 2018, accompanied by 19% Uniform Asset growth. Moreover, Valens' qualitative analysis of the firm's Q3 2017 earnings call highlights that management has concerns about initiatives and their growth outlook. At current valuations, markets are pricing in a best-case scenario for WING's franchising strategy, and considering management concerns about their cost and growth outlook, any negative surprise could lead to material equity downside.

ARMK Q4 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA declines, but management is confident in their growth, margins, and technology

MTD Q3 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record high Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about revenue, costs, and acquisitions

SBAC Q3 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record high Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about revenues, their cash flow, and international markets

ARMK, MTD, SBAC
Underlyings
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company serving patients and families affected by rare diseases through the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies. The company has developed and commercialized two complement inhibitors to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome, as well as the complement inhibitor to treat anti-acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive generalized myasthenia gravis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder in patients who are anti-aquaporin-4 antibody positive. In addition, the company has two enzyme replacement therapies for metabolic disorders, hypophosphatasia and lysosomal acid lipase deficiency.

AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HLDGS

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings is a supplier to the automotive industry. The company designs, engineers and manufactures driveline and metal forming products. The company's business is organized into Driveline and Metal Forming segments. Driveline products consist primarily of front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems. Metal Forming products consist primarily of axle and transmission shafts, ring and pinion gears, differential gears and assemblies, connecting rods and variable valve timing products.

Aramark

Aramark is a provider of food, facilities and uniform services. The company manages its Food and Support Services (FSS) business in segments split between its United States and International operations. The company's FSS segments manage a number of interrelated services-including food, hospitality, procurement and facility services-for school districts, colleges and universities, healthcare facilities, businesses, sports, entertainment and recreational venues, conference and convention centers, national and state parks and correctional institutions. The company's Uniform and Career Apparel segment provides employee uniform solution, including design, sourcing and manufacturing, delivery, cleaning and maintenance.

Autoliv Inc.

Delphi Technologies Plc

Eaton Corp. Plc

Hitachi Ltd.

Hitachi and its subsidiaries are engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of diversified product mix ranging from electricity generation systems to consumer products and electronic devices. Co.'s businesses are diverse, and include information and telecommunication systems, social infrastructure and industrial systems, electronic systems and equipment, construction machinery, high functional materials and components, automotive systems, life & eco systems, financial services, and others including logistics services, optical disk drive, as well as real estate business.

Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.

Huntington Ingalls Industries is a military shipbuilding company and a provider of services to partners in government and industry. The company's segments include: Ingalls Shipbuilding, which designs and constructs non-nuclear ships for the United States Navy and United States Coast Guard, including amphibious assault ships, expeditionary warfare ships, surface combatants, and national security cutters; Newport News Shipbuilding, which is designing and constructing nuclear-powered ships, such as aircraft carriers and submarines, and the refueling and overhaul and the inactivation of such ships; and Technical Solutions, which includes businesses that are focused on life-cycle sustainment services.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum is an independent petroleum refining and marketing, retail and midstream company. The company's segments include: Refining and Marketing, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products; Retail, which sells transportation fuels and convenience products in the retail market across the U.S.; and Midstream, which transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats and barges, gathers, processes and transports natural gas, and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores and markets natural gas liquids.

Mettler-Toledo International Inc.

Mettler-Toledo International is a supplier of precision instruments and services. The company manufactures weighing instruments for use in laboratory, industrial, packaging, logistics, and food retailing applications. The company also manufactures several related analytical instruments and provides automated chemistry solutions used in drug and chemical compound discovery and development. In addition, the company manufactures metal detection and other end-of-line inspection systems used in production and packaging and provides solutions for use in certain process analytics applications. The company has five segments: United States Operations, Swiss Operations, Western European Operations, Chinese Operations, and Other.

Norfolk Southern Corporation

Norfolk Southern is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods primarily in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, via interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. The company also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. The company provides intermodal network in the eastern half of the United States. The company's railroad operates in several states and the District of Columbia. The company's system reaches manufacturing plants, electric generating facilities, mines, distribution centers, transload facilities, and other businesses in its service area.

Old COPPER Company. Inc.

J. C. Penney Company is a holding company whose principal operating subsidiary is J. C. Penney Corporation, Inc. The company's business consists of selling merchandise and services to consumers through its department stores and its website at jcpenney.com. The company's department stores and website serve the same type of customers, its website provides the same mix of merchandise as its store assortment along with other extended categories that are not provided in store, and its department stores accept returns from sales made in stores and via its website. The company sells family apparel and footwear, accessories, jewelry, beauty products through Sephora inside JCPenney, and home furnishings.

OSHKOSH CORP

Oshkosh is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of access equipment, specialty vehicles and truck bodies for the primary markets of access equipment, defense, fire and emergency and municipal, refuse hauling, concrete placement as well as airport services. The company's segments are: access equipment, which designs and manufactures aerial work platforms and telehandlers; defense, which designs and manufactures tactical wheeled vehicles and related service; fire and emergency, which designs and manufactures fire apparatus assembled on custom chassis; and commercial, which designs and manufactures front- and rear-discharge concrete mixers and portable and stationary concrete batch plants.

RPM INTERNATIONAL INC

RPM International manufactures, markets and sells various chemical product lines, including paints, infrastructure rehab and repair products, protective coatings, roofing systems, sealants and adhesives. The company's segments include: industrial, which includes maintenance and protection products and services for roofing and waterproofing systems; specialty, which includes industrial cleaners, restoration services equipment, colorants, exterior finishes, edible coatings and other coatings; and consumer, which includes rust-preventative, special purpose and decorative paints, caulks, sealants, primers, nail enamels, cement cleaners, floor sealers and woodcare coatings and other consumer products.

SBA Communications Corp. Class A

SBA Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure, including tower structures, rooftops, and other structures that support antennas used for wireless communications. The company's operations are in the U.S. and its territories. In its site leasing business, the company leases antenna space to wireless service providers on towers that the company owns or operates and manages rooftop and tower sites for property owners under various contractual arrangements. In its site development business, the company assists wireless service providers in developing and maintaining their own wireless service networks.

Weyerhaeuser Company

Weyerhaeuser is a real estate investment trust. The company's business segments are: Timberlands, which provides delivered logs (grade logs and fiber logs), timber, recreational leases and other products; Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources (ENR), in which Real Estate sells timberland tracts for recreational, conservation, commercial or residential purposes, whereas ENR sells rights to explore, extract and sell construction aggregates (rock, sand and gravel), industrial materials and oil and natural gas; and Wood Products, which provides structural lumber, oriented strand board, wood products, other products, and complementary building products.

Wingstop Inc.

Wingstop is a franchisor and operator of restaurants that focuses on cooked-to-order, hand-sauced and tossed chicken wings. The company provides its guests several flavors on its bone-in and boneless chicken wings and tenders paired with seasoned fries, Ranch, and Bleu Cheese dips. The company's proprietary flavors, which range from extremely hot to mild includes Atomic, Mango Habanero, Cajun, Original Hot, Spicy Korean Q, Louisiana Rub, Mild, Hickory Smoked BBQ, Lemon Pepper, Garlic Parmesan, and Hawaiian. To complement its wings, the company serves seasoned fries, as well as carrots and celery and Ranch and Bleu Cheese Dips made with buttermilk.

Zoetis Inc. Class A

Zoetis is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and commercialization of animal health medicines, vaccines, and diagnostic products with a focus on both livestock and companion animals. The company operates in two segments: the United States and International. The company's main product categories are vaccines, anti-infectives, parasiticides, other pharmaceutical products, dermatology products, medicated feed additives, and animal health diagnostics. The company's other non-pharmaceutical product categories include nutritionals and agribusiness, as well as products and services including biodevices, genetic tests and precision livestock farming.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

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