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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 02 07

LRCX currently trades near historical averages relative to UAFRS-based Earnings, with a 10.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 32% in 2017 to 15% in 2022, accompanied by 12% Uniform Asset growth. However, analysts have more bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to remain at current
32%-33% levels through 2019, accompanied by 20% Uniform Asset growth. Moreover, analyst projections, which are already bullish, have grown significantly over the past year, which is a positive indicator of the company's ability to outperform muted market expectations, even if management has concerns about near-term operational headwinds.


DNR Q3 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a recovery in Uniform ROA, and management is confident about growth, cash flows, and debt

DOOR Q3 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for sustained, record-high Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about productivity, costs, and pricing

WGO Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Markets have less bullish expectations for WGO than analysts project, and management's confidence in their product development and initiatives imply this is likely unwarranted

DNR, DOOR, WGO
Underlyings
Air Lease Corporation Class A

Air Lease is an aircraft leasing company. The company is engaged in purchasing new commercial jet transport aircraft directly from aircraft manufacturers, such as The Boeing Company and Airbus S.A.S., and leasing those aircraft to airlines. In addition to its leasing activities, the company sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to third parties, including other leasing companies, financial services companies, airlines and other investors. The company also provides fleet management services to investors and owners of aircraft portfolios. The company provides aircraft to airline customers in Asia, the Pacific Rim, Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and North America.

AvalonBay Communities Inc.

AvalonBay Communities is a real estate investment trust. The company develops, redevelops, acquires, owns and operates multifamily communities primarily in New England, the New York/New Jersey metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California. The company owns or holds a direct or indirect ownership interest in: operating apartment communities containing apartment homes in various states and the District of Columbia; communities under development; and rights to develop an additional communities.

Builders FirstSource Inc.

Builders FirstSource, through its subsidiaries is a supplier and manufacturer of building materials, manufactured components and construction services to homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers and consumers. The company provides a solution to its customers providing manufacturing, supply and installation of structural and related building products. The company's manufactured products include factory-built roof and floor trusses, and wall panels and stairs. The company also assembles interior and exterior doors into pre-hung units. Additionally, the company supplies its customers with building products not manufactured by the company, such as dimensional lumber and lumber sheet goods and various window, door and millwork lines.

Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings

Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides clients with advertising opportunities through billboards, street furniture displays, transit displays and other out-of-home advertising displays, such as wallscapes, and spectaculars, which the company owns or operates in key markets worldwide. The company's business consists of two reportable operating segments: Americas outdoor advertising (Americas) and International outdoor advertising (International). The Americas segment consists of operations primarily in the U.S. and Latin America. The International segment includes the company's operations in Europe and Asia.

Denbury Resources Inc.

Denbury Resources is an independent oil and natural gas company. The company's operations are focused in two main operating areas: the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain regions. The company's properties with proved and producing reserves in the Gulf Coast region are situated in Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana and Alabama, and in the Rocky Mountain region are situated in Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming.

Electronic Arts Inc.

Electronic Arts develops, markets, publishes and distributes games, content and services that can be played and watched on a variety of platforms, including game consoles, personal computers, and mobile phones. The company markets and sells its games and services through digital distribution channels and through retail channels. Digitally, the company's console games and services can be purchased through third-party storefronts. In its games and services, the company utilizes brands that it either wholly own or license from others. The company develops and publishes games and services across genres. Within and alongside its games, the company provides live services, including in-game purchases, downloadable content, and esports.

Flowserve Corporation

Flowserve is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The company develops and manufactures flow control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials in its customers' processes. The company's segments are: Flowserve Pump Division, which are for custom, pumps, pre-configured industrial pumps, pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems and replacement parts and related services; and Flow Control Division, which are for engineered and industrial valves, control valves, actuators and controls and related services.

Fluor Corporation

Fluor is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, operations, maintenance and asset integrity, as well as project management services. The company serves a set of industries including oil and gas, chemicals and petrochemicals, mining and metals, transportation, power, life sciences and manufacturing. The company is also a service provider to the U.S. federal government and governments abroad; and it performs operations, maintenance and asset integrity activities for industrial clients. The company has four segments: Energy & Chemicals; Mining, Industrial, Infrastructure & Power; Diversified Services; and Government.

GameStop Corp. Class A

GameStop is a multichannel video game and licensed consumer products retailer. The company's products and services includes: New Video Game Hardware, which provides video game platforms from manufacturers; New Video Game Software, which provides new video game software for existing and certain prior generation consoles from manufacturers, including Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft; Video Game Accessories, which consist primarily of controllers, gaming headsets, virtual reality products, and memory cards; and Digital, which sells a variety of digital currency and has developed technology to sell downloadable content and full-game downloads in its stores and on its U.S. website.

Gogo Inc.

Gogo is a holding company. Through its operating subsidiaries, the company is a provider of in-flight broadband connectivity and wireless entertainment services. The company's segments are: Commercial Aviation North America, which provides air-to-ground and satellite connectivity and entertainment services to commercial aircraft flying routes within North America; Commercial Aviation Rest of World, which provides satellite connectivity and entertainment services to commercial aircraft flying routes outside of North America; and Business Aviation, which provides integrated equipment, network and Internet connectivity products and services to the business aviation market.

Hecla Mining Company

Hecla Mining and its subsidiaries discover, acquire and develop mines and other mineral interests and produce and market concentrates, carbon material and dore containing silver, gold, lead and zinc. The company has five units: the Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, Casa Berardi, San Sebastian and Nevada Operations units. The company produces zinc, lead and bulk flotation concentrates at its Greens Creek unit and lead and zinc flotation concentrates at its Lucky Friday unit, each of which the company sells to custom smelters and metal traders on contract. The company also produces unrefined gold and silver bullion bars (dore), loaded carbon and precipitates at its Casa Berardi, San Sebastian and Nevada Operations units.

Lam Research Corporation

Lam Research is a supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. The company designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. The company's customer base includes semiconductor memory, foundry, and integrated device manufacturers that make products such as non-volatile memory, dynamic random-access memory, and logic devices. The company's services include customer service, spares, improvement, and refurbishment of its deposition, etch, and clean products. The company sells its products and services to companies in the United States, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan.

Manitowoc Company Inc.

Manitowoc is a provider of engineered lifting solutions. The company designs, manufactures and distributes a line of crawler-mounted lattice-boom cranes, which it sells under the Manitowoc brand name. The company also designs and manufactures top-slewing and self-erecting tower cranes, which it sells under the Potain brand name. The company designs and manufactures mobile telescopic cranes, which it sells under the Grove, Shuttlelift and National Crane brand names. The company provides crane product parts and services and crane rebuilding, remanufacturing and training services, which are delivered under the Manitowoc Crane Care brand name. The company's segments are: Americas, Europe and Africa, and Middle East and Asia Pacific.

Masonite International Corp.

Masonite International designs, manufactures and distributes interior and exterior doors for the new construction and repair, renovation and remodeling sectors of the residential and non-residential building construction markets. Co. manufactures a line of interior doors, including residential molded, flush, stile and rail, louver and commercial and architectural doors; door components for internal use and sale to other door manufacturers; and exterior residential steel, fiberglass and wood doors and entry systems. Co.'s portfolio of brands include Masonite®, Marshfield®, Premdor®, Mohawk®, Megantic®, Algoma®, Birchwood Best®, Lemieux®, Door-Stop™, Harring Doors™ and National Hickman™ .

Molson Coors Beverage Company Class B

Molson Coors Brewing is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a brewer and has a portfolio of brands, including Blue Moon, Coors Banquet, Coors Light, Miller Lite, Staropramen, Carling, Molson Canadian and other brands, as well as craft and specialty beers such as Creemore Springs, Cobra, Doom Bar, Henry's Hard and Leinenkugel's. The company's segments include: MillerCoors LLC operating in the U.S.; Molson Coors Canada operating in Canada; Molson Coors Europe operating in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Montenegro, the Republic of Ireland, Romania, Serbia, the U.K. and various other European countries; and Molson Coors International operating in various other countries.

Netflix Inc.

Netflix is engaged in subscription streaming entertainment service including TV series, documentaries and feature films across a variety of genres and languages. Members can watch as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, on any internet-connected screen. Members can play, pause and resume watching, without commercials. Additionally, several members in the United States subscribe to the company's DVD-by-mail service. The company improves its streaming content with a focus on a programming mix of content. The company's members can download a selection of titles for offline viewing. The company operates its business as a global operating segment.

Nike, Inc.

Western Union Company

Western Union is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in money movement and payment services, providing people and businesses with ways to send money and make payments around the world. The company's segments are: Consumer-to-Consumer, which is focused on individual money transfers from one consumer to another; and Business Solutions, in which the company facilitates payment and foreign exchange solutions, primarily cross-border, cross-currency transactions, for small and medium size enterprises and other organizations and individuals. The company's remaining businesses and services include its electronic-based and cash-based bill payment services.

Winnebago Industries Inc.

Winnebago Industries is a manufacturer with a portfolio of recreation vehicles and marine products used primarily in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. The company's reportable segments include: Towable, which is comprised of products which are not motorized and are generally towed by another vehicle as well as other related manufactured products and services; and Motorhome, which is comprised of products that include a motorized chassis as well as other related manufactured products and services. The company's subsidiary, Chris-Craft USA, Inc., manufactures and sells boats in the recreational powerboat industry through a network of independent authorized dealers.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

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