Report
Joel Litman ...
  • Rob Spivey

Valens Research US Market Phase Cycle - Macro and Equity Ideas - March 2019

Profits and profitability continue to rise to all-time highs across US corporations (UAFRS-adjusted, accurate calculations)

US firms likely to use profits to increase capital investments in 2019

Business credit, the “canary in the coal mine” for stock market disasters is flashing early warning signs for 2020 or 2021 – however, all clear for 2019

The combination of profitability and growth, with low-to-no credit risk, suggests strong US equity upside in 2019

Specific stock ideas that play into the current market dynamics are:

First Solar (FSLR)
eBay (EBAY)
Winnebago (WGO)
Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Joel Litman

Rob Spivey

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