Report
Joel Litman ...
  • Rob Spivey

Valens Research US Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View - March 2018

Over the last several months, there has been increased volatility in the market. The volatility has been driven by headlines about inflation, trade, and the management at the Fed, to name a few examples. While the market has been reacting to this news, it has missed some important signals. In Q4 2017, 75% of the S&P 500 beat earnings estimates. S&P earnings in aggregate rose 16%. S&P earnings are forecast to grow 15% in 2018 on a Uniform Accounting basis. Analysis of management sentiment shows they are growing more bullish, and are seeking to invest in growth. This is likely to support and lead to even greater earnings and top-line growth. Credit standards continue to ease, and corporate credit risk remains muted with strong cash flows, strong cash balances, and strong balance sheets. Investors currently have very neutral sentiment, because of excessive focus on headline risk. Much more positive sentiment is likely warranted, due to strong corporate fundamental momentum. Investors' focus on headline risk is likely to lead to continued volatility in the near-term. However, considering the strong and improving fundamentals of the market as we look forward into 2018, investors who use these corrections as buying opportunities will benefit.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Joel Litman

Rob Spivey

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