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Valens Research

VRSK - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 01 11

Verisk Analytics (VRSK) currently trades above corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 36.5x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to improve to 120%, accompanied by 9% Uniform asset growth.

However, analysts expect Uniform ROA to compress to 78% in 2022, accompanied by 20% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $196, representing approximately 8% equity downside for the firm.

That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management is confident about their analytics capabilities, ACTINEO acquisition, and product.
Underlying
Verisk Analytics Inc

Verisk Analytics is a data analytics provider serving customers in insurance, energy and specialized markets, and financial services. The company has three segments: Insurance, which provides underwriting and ratings and claims insurance data for the United States property and casualty insurance industry; Energy and Specialized Markets, which provides research and consulting data analytics for the global energy, chemicals, and metals and mining industries; and Financial Services, which provides benchmarking, decisioning algorithms, business intelligence, and customized analytic services to financial institutions, payment networks and processors, alternative lenders, regulators and merchants.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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