Report
Valens Research

VRX - Valens Credit Report - 2017 09 19

- Credit markets are materially overstating VRX's credit risk with a CDS of 568bps and YTW of 8.235% relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 414bps and an Intrinsic YTW of 5.935%. Furthermore, Moody's is materially overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk with their highly speculative, high-yield Caa1 credit rating, five notches lower than Valens' HY1 (Ba2) rating - Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights management has low change-in-control compensation, indicating that they are less likely to accept a buyout or pursue a sale, reducing event risk for creditors. Furthermore, compensation based on EBITDA, revenue, and ROTC should lead to improved growth, asset utilization, and margins, a positive for creditors

- Equity markets are pricing in expectations for a material Uniform ROA compression, with valuations relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings at their lowest point since 2009. VRX shares have fallen materially amid concerns about the accuracy of VRX's financial statements and concerns about the pharmaceutical industry as a whole. As such, the firm is likely undervalued if they can just maintain profitability going forward

Underlying
Bausch Health Companies

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International is a pharmaceutical and medical device company that develops, manufactures, and markets a range of branded, generic and branded generic pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter (OTC) products, and medical devices (contact lenses, intraocular lenses, ophthalmic surgical equipment, and aesthetics devices). Co. has two operating and reportable segments: Developed Markets, which focuses in dermatology, neurology, gastrointestinal disorders, and eye health therapeutic; and Emerging Markets, which focuses primarily on branded generics, OTC products, and medical devices.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

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