Report
Valens Research

WPC - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 04 14

W. P. Carey (WPC) currently trades near corporate yet above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 24.7x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to remain stable at 11% through 2026, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

However, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 11% by 2023, accompanied by 4% Uniform asset shrinkage.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $69, representing approximately 16% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about cap rates, profitability, and competition.
Underlying
W. P. Carey Inc.

W. P. Carey is an internally-managed diversified real estate investment trust (REIT). The company's business operates in two segments: Real Estate, in which the company invests in commercial real estate properties that are net-leased to tenants, primarily located in the U.S. and Northern and Western Europe; and Investment Management, in which the company manages tjhe portfolios of certain non-traded investment programs through its investment management business, non-traded REITs that have invested in lodging and lodging-related properties, and a private limited partnership formed for the purpose of developing, owning, and operating student housing properties and similar investments in Europe.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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