Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 234.63 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Dramatic improvement

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements below, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.

• 10-year Treasury yield. We continue to believe that a bottom in Treasury yields is necessary before we see a decisive breakout for the broad equity market. We are seeing signs of this bottom happening -- not only in the absolute chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, but also in several clues from the equity market (e.g., homebuilders exhibiting signs of deterioration after getting extended, banks are outperforming insurance stocks, and price and RS deterioration from defensive bond proxy Sectors)... see charts below.

• Technology hitting all-time highs, Financials hitting 52-week highs. Technology (XLK) and Financials (XLF) are hitting new highs for the first time in months. If other cyclical Sectors/areas of the market can follow suit, we are likely setting the stage for a broad market advance... see page 3.

• More indexes hitting 52+ week highs. As if the bullish price and RS reversals in emerging markets (EEM) was not enough to show that risk appetites are improving, we are now seeing new 52+ week highs in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, MSCI ACWI, PHLX Semiconductor, STOXX Europe 600, and German DAX indexes. All of this bodes well for the prospects of a broad-based advance... see page 4.

• High yield spreads narrowing; 10-year German Bund bottoming. High yield spreads exhibit signs of breaking down from the symmetrical triangle pattern, which would be the bond market's way of telling us to believe in this rally... see page 5.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: EN-20 Refining, FN-15 Banks, Super-Regional, MF-01 Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and TE-08 Data Storage Solutions & Devices, Large-Cap... see pages 13-30.
Underlyings
ABB Ltd. ADS

BANK OF AMERICA CORP

Bank of America is a bank and a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. The company's segments include: Consumer Banking, which provides credit, banking and investment products and services; Global Wealth & Investment Management, which provides investment management, brokerage, banking and retirement products; Global Banking, which provides lending-related products and services, integrated working capital management and treasury solutions, and underwriting and advisory services; and Global Markets, which provides sales and trading services and research services.

Carlisle Companies Incorporated

Carlisle Companies designs, manufactures and markets commercial roofing, energy, agriculture, mining, construction, aerospace and defense electronics, medical technology, transportation, among others. The company's segments are: Carlisle Construction Material, which provides ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber, thermoplastic polyolefin and polyvinyl chloride membrane and metal roofing systems; Carlisle Interconnect Technologies, which provides wire, cable, connectors, contacts and cable assemblies, and satellite communication equipment; Carlisle Fluid Technologies, which provides liquid, powder, sealants and adhesives finishing equipment and system components; and Carlisle Brake and Friction.

CVR Energy Inc.

CVR Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP (CVR Refining) and CVR Partners, LP (CVR Partners). CVR Refining is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. CVR Partners produces and markets nitrogen fertilizers in the form of urea ammonium nitrate and ammonia. The company's segments include: Petroleum, which includes refineries located in Coffeyville, KS and Wynnewood, OK and supporting logistics assets in the region; and Nitrogen Fertilizer, which includes nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facilities located in Coffeyville, KS and East Dubuque, IL.

Delek US Holdings Inc

Delek US Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the downstream energy business focused on petroleum refining, the transportation, storage and wholesale distribution of crude oil, intermediate and refined products and convenience store retailing. The company's segments are: refining, which processes crude oil and other feedstocks for the manufacture of transportation motor fuels; logistics, which gathers, transports and stores crude oil and markets, distributes, transports and stores refined products; and retail, which includes the operations of Alon USA Energy, Inc.'s convenience store sites located primarily in central and West Texas and New Mexico.

Dover Corporation

Dover is a manufacturer and solutions provider. The company provides services through five segments: Engineered Products, which provides a range of products, software and services; Fueling Solutions, which provides components, equipment and software and service solutions enabling transport of fuels and other hazardous fluids; Imaging and Identification, which includes supplying precision marking and coding; Pumps and Process Solutions, which includes manufacturing of pumps; and Refrigeration and Food Equipment, which provides equipment and systems that serve the commercial refrigeration, heating and cooling and food equipment markets.

Emerson Electric Co.

Emerson Electric is a company that brings technology and engineering together to provide solutions for customers in a range of industrial, commercial and consumer markets around the world. The company 's segments are: Automation Solutions, which provides measurement and analytical instrumentation, valves, actuators and regulators, industrial solutions, and process control systems and solutions; Climate Technologies, which provides products and services for residential heating and cooling, commercial air conditioning, commercial and industrial refrigeration, and cold chain management; and Tools and Home Products, which provides tools for personnel and homeowners and appliance solutions.

Fifth Third Bancorp

Fifth Third Bancorp is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides financial products and services to the commercial, financial, retail, governmental, educational, energy and healthcare sectors. The company's segments are: Commercial Banking, which provides credit intermediation, cash management and financial services; Branch Banking, which provides a range of deposit and loan products to individuals and small businesses; Consumer Lending, which includes the company's residential mortgage, automobile and other indirect lending activities; and Wealth and Asset Management, which provides a range of investment alternatives for individuals, companies and not-for-profit organizations.

HollyFrontier Corporation

HollyFrontier is a petroleum refiner that produces products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, other lubricant products, and specialty and modified asphalt. The company's segments are: Refining, which involves the purchase and refining of crude oil and wholesale and marketing of refined products; Lubricants and Specialty Products, which includes the production of lubricant products such as base oils, white oils, other products and finished lubricants; and the company's subsidiary, Holly Energy Partners, L.P., which owns and operates logistics and refinery assets consisting of petroleum product and crude oil pipelines, terminals, tankage, loading rack facilities and processing units.

Honeywell International Inc.

Honeywell International is a technology and manufacturing company. The company has four segments: Aerospace, which supplies products, software and services for aircrafts; Honeywell Building Technologies, which provides products, software, solutions and technologies including building control and optimization, energy management, access control, video surveillance, fire products, and remote patient monitoring systems; Performance Materials and Technologies, which develops and manufactures chemicals and materials, process technologies and automation solutions; and Safety and Productivity Solutions, which provides products and software that improve productivity, workplace safety and asset performance.

Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Illinois Tool Works manufactures a range of industrial products and equipment. Automotive OEM segment produces components and fasteners for automotive-related applications. Food Equipment segment is engaged in commercial food equipment. Test and Measurement and Electronics segment produces equipment for testing and measuring of materials and structures. Welding segment produces arc welding equipment, consumables and accessories. Polymers and Fluids segment produces adhesives, sealants, lubrication and cutting fluids for auto aftermarket maintenance. Construction Products segment supplies fastening systems and solutions. Specialty Products segment is focused on patent protection.

KeyCorp

KeyCorp is a bank holding company. Through its principal subsidiary, KeyBank National Association and certain other subsidiaries, the company has the following main business segments: Consumer Bank, which serves individuals and small businesses by providing a variety of deposit and investment products, personal finance and financial wellness services, lending, mortgage and home equity, student loan refinancing, credit card, treasury services, and business advisory services; and Commercial Bank, which is focused principally on serving the needs of middle market clients in the following industry sectors, including consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum is an independent petroleum refining and marketing, retail and midstream company. The company's segments include: Refining and Marketing, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products; Retail, which sells transportation fuels and convenience products in the retail market across the U.S.; and Midstream, which transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats and barges, gathers, processes and transports natural gas, and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores and markets natural gas liquids.

Murphy USA Inc.

Murphy USA is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company's business consists primarily of the marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise through its retail stores. The company's retail stores are located in the Southeast, Southwest and Midwest United States. The company's business also includes certain product supply and wholesale assets, including product distribution terminals and pipeline positions. The company purchases fuel from oil companies, independent refiners, and other marketers, and it sells fuel to its customers. In addition to the motor fuel sold at the company's stores, its stores carry a selection of snacks, beverages, tobacco products and non-food merchandise.

Phillips 66

Phillips 66 is an energy manufacturing and logistics company with midstream, chemicals, refining, and marketing and specialties businesses. The company's segments include: Midstream, which provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling and processing services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids transportation, storage, processing and marketing services; Chemicals, which manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis; Refining, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products; and Marketing and Specialties, which purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products, mainly in the United States and Europe.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc.

PNC Financial Services Group is a bank holding company. The company has businesses engaged in retail banking, including residential mortgage, corporate and institutional banking and asset management, providing its products and services nationally. The company's segments are: Retail Banking, which provides deposit, lending, brokerage, insurance services, investment management and cash management products and services; Corporate and Institutional Banking, which provides lending, treasury management, and capital markets-related products and services; Asset Management Group, which provides personal wealth management; and BlackRock, which provides a range of investment and technology services.

Raytheon Technologies Corporation

United Technologies provides technology products and services to the building systems and aerospace industries. The company has four segments: Otis, which designs, manufactures, sells and installs passenger and freight elevators; Carrier, which provides heating, ventilating, air conditioning refrigeration, fire, security and building automation products; Pratt & Whitney, which supplies aircraft engines for the commercial, military, business jet and general aviation market; and Collins Aerospace Systems, which provides aerospace products and aftermarket service solutions for aircraft manufacturers, airlines, regional, business and general aviation markets, military, space and undersea operations.

Regions Financial Corporation

Regions Financial is a banking holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company has the following segments: Corporate Bank, which represents its commercial banking functions including commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and investor real estate lending; Consumer Bank, which represents its branch network, including consumer banking products and services related to residential first mortgages, home equity lines and loans, branch small business loans, indirect loans, consumer credit cards and other consumer loans; and Wealth Management, which provides credit related products, trust and investment management, asset management, retirement and savings solutions and estate planning.

Seagate Technology PLC

Siemens AG ADS

SunTrust Banks Inc.

SunTrust Banks is a financial services holding company. Through its subsidiary, SunTrust Bank (the Bank), the company provides a line of financial services for consumers, businesses, corporations, institutions, and not-for-profit entities, both through branches (located primarily in Florida, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Maryland, South Carolina, and the District of Columbia) and through other digital and national delivery channels. The Bank provides deposit, credit, mortgage banking, and trust and investment services to its clients through a selection of channels, including branch, call center, Teller Connect? machines, automated teller machines, online, mobile, and tablet.

Trane Technologies plc

Ingersoll-Rand provides products, services and solutions to enhance air in homes and buildings, transport and protect food. Co.'s segments are: Climate. which includes Trane® and American Standard® Heating & Air Conditioning, providing heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, and commercial and residential building services, parts, support and controls, energy services and building automation as well as transport temperature control solutions; and Industrial, which includes compressed air and gas systems and services, power tools, material handling systems, ARO® fluid management equipment, as well as Club Car ® golf, utility and rough terrain vehicles.

Truist Financial Corporation

BB&T is a financial holding company. Through its bank subsidiary, Branch Banking and Trust Company, the company provides banking services to individuals, businesses and municipalities. The company provides loans and lease financing, including commercial and residential mortgages; permanent commercial real estate financing arrangements; loan servicing for third-party investors; direct consumer finance loans to individuals; credit card lending; automobile financing; and equipment financing. The company also provides other services, including deposits; discount and brokerage, annuities and mutual funds; life insurance, property and casualty insurance, health insurance and commercial general liability insurance.

U.S. Bancorp

U.S. Bancorp is a multi-state financial services holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services. The company also engages in credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing. The company's subsidiary, U.S. Bank National Association, is engaged in the general banking business, principally in domestic markets. The company's bank and trust subsidiaries provide a range of asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations and charitable organizations.

Wells Fargo & Company

Wells Fargo & Company is a financial and a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides banking, investment and mortgage products and services, as well as consumer and commercial finance. The company provides consumer financial products and services including checking and savings accounts, credit and debit cards, and automobile, student, mortgage and home equity and small business lending, as well as financial planning, private banking, investment management, and fiduciary services. The company also provides financial solutions including commercial loans and lines of credit, letters of credit, asset-based lending, trade financing, treasury management, and investment banking services.

Western Digital Corporation

Western Digital is a developer, manufacturer, and provider of data storage devices and solutions. The company's portfolio of technology and products address the following markets: Client Devices, which consist of hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid state drives (SSDs) for computing devices, flash-based embedded storage products, and flash-based memory wafers and components; Data Center Devices and Solutions, which consist of enterprise HDDs and enterprise SSDs, data center software and system solutions; and Client Solutions, which consist of HDDs and SSDs embedded into external storage products and removable flash-based products, such as cards, universal serial bus flash drives and wireless drives.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Vermilion Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch