Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 234.63 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 Getting Long-Term Oversold
Note: We have suspended the Russell grids and Sector comments this week due to heightened volatility.
Major indexes broke below the key support levels we were watching on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&P 500 (2,855), DJI (24,681) and Russell 2000 (1,448), ushering-in additional downside. We view these levels as logical areas of potential short-term resistance moving forward. Clues that a breakdown was increasingly likely started coming as early as Thursday, when the KBW Bank index broke below key $89 support we outlined last week. Friday's widening move in high yield spreads above the December 2018 highs only added to these concerns, and has left the equity market still searching for a bottom. Below we offer our perspective and potential areas that might offer support.
• Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are upgrading Health Care from market weight to overweight with RS breaking topside resistance for both the cap- and equal-weighted S&P 500 Sectors (XLV, RYH). Additionally, with RS breaking down to new lows we are downgrading Financials and Manufacturing to underweight from market weight..

• % of S&P 500 Stocks Above Their 200-Day MAs. We have recently noted several short-term oversold indicators, however the S&P 500 is now reaching long-term oversold levels as measured by the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day MAs. This reading dipped to 15.2% as of yesterday's close, a rare level that has historically been consistent with an impending bullish reversal in the S&P 500.

• S&P 500 Potential Support Levels. There are several potential support areas on the S&P 500 worth noting. 2722-2734 is immediate support to watch; the March and June 2019 lows. If that fails to hold, the next potential downside levels (in descending order) include the 200-week MA, 2600-2630, and the December 2018 low of 2346.
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• EM Equities, Commodities, High Yield Spreads. We examine the MSCI EM index and copper prices, which tell a much different story than WTI crude and high yield spreads. We also give our view on gold and gold miners (GDX, GDXJ)...
Underlyings
AbbVie Inc.

AbbVie is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company's products are focused on treating conditions such as chronic autoimmune diseases in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus; neurological disorders, such as Parkinson's disease; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis; pain associated with endometriosis; as well as other serious health conditions. The company also has medicines in clinical development across immunology, oncology and neuroscience, with additional targeted investment in cystic fibrosis and women's health.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Acadia Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of medicines focusing on central nervous system disorders. The company has a portfolio of product including its drug, NUPLAZID (pimavanserin), which has been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis (PD Psychosis). NUPLAZID is a selective serotonin inverse agonist preferentially targeting 5-HT2A receptors with no appreciable affinity for dopaminergic, histaminergic, or muscarinic receptors.

Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Agios Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company focused on areas of hematologic malignancies, solid tumors and rare genetic diseases. The company's product, TIBSOVO? (ivosidenib) is for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (R/R AML) with a susceptible isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) 1 mutation. The company's other product is IDHIFA? (enasidenib) for patients with R/R AML and an IDH2 mutation. The company's pre-commercial clinical cancer product candidates include: vorasidenib, a brain-penetrant pan-IDH mutant inhibitor; and AG-270, an orally available selective inhibitor of methionine adenosyltransferase 2a.

Eli Lilly and Company

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets products in a single business segment: human pharmaceutical products. The company's human pharmaceutical products include: diabetes and other endocrinology products, immunology products, neuroscience products, oncology products, and other products. The company's diabetes and other endocrinology products include: Baqsimi? and Basaglar?. The company's immunology products include: Olumiant? and Taltz?. The company's neuroscience products include: Cymbalta? and Emgality?. The company's oncology products include: Alimta?, Cyramza?, Erbitux? and Verzenio?. The company's other products include: Cialis?.

Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA ADS

FULGENT GENETICS

Fulgent Genetics is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a technology company providing genetic testing and providing physicians with diagnostic information they can use to improve the quality of patient care. The company has developed a proprietary technology platform that allows it to provide test menu. The company performs full-gene sequencing with deletion/duplication analysis in single-gene tests; pre-established, multi-gene, disease-specific panels; and customized panels to meet customer needs. The company's test menu includes single-gene tests and panels that test for genetic conditions, including various cancers, cardiovascular diseases, neurological disorders and pediatric conditions.

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings is a life sciences company that is focused on guiding patient care. The company reports its business in the following segments: LabCorp Diagnostics (LCD) and Covance Drug Development (CDD). LCD is an independent clinical laboratory business. LCD provides a menu of requested and specialty testing through a network of primary and specialty laboratories across the United States. CDD provides drug development, medical device and diagnostic development solutions from early-stage research to clinical development and commercial market access. CDD engages in early development and clinical trials in each therapeutic category.

Luminex Corp

Luminex develops, manufactures and sells biological testing technologies and products with applications in the life sciences industries, including diagnostics, pharmaceutical and research. The company delivers its products to various market segments, including multiplexing, reduction of labor and ability to test for proteins and nucleic acids. The company's products include: instruments, which include Luminex? 100/200?, FLEXMAP? 3D, MAGPIX?, ARIES?, and ARIES? M1; consumables, which include MicroPlex? Microspheres, MagPlex? Microspheres, and xTAG? Microspheres; software, which includes xPONENT?, TDAS?, SYNCT?, and IDEAS?; and clinical diagnostic assay product families, which include ARIES? Cassettes.

Novo Nordisk A/S ADS

PTC Therapeutics Inc.

PTC Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of clinically-differentiated medicines that provide benefits to patients with rare disorders. The company has the following products, Translarna? (ataluren) and Emflaza? (deflazacort), for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy, a rare, life threatening disorder. The company's gene therapy product candidates for rare monogenic diseases that affect the central nervous system (CNS) include PTC-AADC for the treatment of Aromatic L-Amino Acid Decarboxylase (AADC) deficiency, a rare CNS disorder arising from reductions in the enzyme AADC that results from mutations in the dopa decarboxylase gene.

Quidel Corporation

Quidel is engaged in the development, manufacturing and marketing of diagnostic testing solutions. The company provides diagnostic testing solutions under various brand names, including, among others, the following: Quidel?, QuickVue?, QuickVue+?, Sofia?, Triage?, AmpliVue?, Solana?, Virena?, MicroVue?, Lyra?, FreshCells?, D3?, FastPoint?, ReadyCells?, Super E-Mix?, InflammaDry?, AdenoPlus?, ELVIRA?, ELVIS? and Thyretain?. The company's diagnostic testing solutions are separated into its four product categories: rapid immunoassay, cardiac immunoassay, specialized diagnostic solutions and molecular diagnostic solutions.

Repligen Corporation

Repligen is a life sciences company that develops and commercializes bioprocessing technologies and systems used in the process of manufacturing biological drugs. The company's bioprocessing business is comprised of: Chromatography, which includes products used in downstream purification, development, manufacturing and quality control of biological drugs; Filtration, which includes XCell Alternating Tangential Flow systems that are used in upstream perfusion cell culture processing; Process Analytics, which complements and supports its Filtration, Chromatography and Proteins franchises; and OEM products, which are represented by its Protein A affinity ligands and cell culture growth factor products

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is focused on developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) and developing research and development programs in other indications. The company's marketed products are TRIKAFTA (elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor and ivacaftor), SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI (tezacaftor in combination with ivacaftor), ORKAMBI (lumacaftor in combination with ivacaftor) and KALYDECO (ivacaftor), which are approved to treat patients with CF who have specific mutations in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene. The company is evaluating CTX001, a genetic therapy as a potential treatment for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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