Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Small-caps, biotech, Discretionary hitting new highs

We remain bullish on the market, but to be clear, this is not a blanket endorsement. As we outline below, the “market” has pockets of strength and pockets of weakness. Our aim as always, is to highlight each and guide our clients to areas of outperformance. With that said, let's consider the weight of the evidence for the current state of our market and our bullish recommendation.

• Positives. Helping support the bull case are a number of things we would not expect to see if there was trouble ahead for the market: (1) the Russell 2000 small-cap index is breaking out to new highs and continues to outperform large-caps, (2) biotechs (XBI) and small-cap Health Care (PSCH) are also outperforming and breaking out to new highs, (3) Discretionary (XLY) strength is indicating the consumer remains resilient, (4) the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials remain in short-term uptrends, and (5) growth continues to outperform value. All five of these points suggest risk-on sentiment and a healthy market. Although as always, we believe it's important to overweight the right Sectors... see below and inside.

• Concerns. While this market has many positives going for it, concerns exist. While we noted a short-term uptrend for the S&P 500, it remains within the confines of a larger YTD sideways consolidation. There is also the threat of rising interest rates, which we believe have the potential to derail the market's advance. Additionally, and while we do not need Emerging Markets to show strong performance, weakness puts a damper on risk sentiment, an overall negative for the market. Last but not least, large-cap Financials are currently at a critical support level and a breakdown in the Sector could pull equities down with it... see pages 3-4.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings. For the fourth week in a row, equal-weighted Health Care is at the top of our rankings, followed closely by Technology and Consumer Discretionary... see page 5.

• In today's report we highlight attractive and actionable Groups within Health Care: HC-11 Cardiovascular Products, HC-14 Diagnostic & Test Products, and HC-28 Home Health Care Services... see pages 10-23.
Underlyings
ABIOMED Inc.

ABIOMED is a provider of temporary mechanical circulatory support devices, and it provides a continuum of care to heart failure patients. The company's products include: Impella 2.5?, which is a percutaneous micro heart pump with an integrated motor and sensors; which is primarily used by either interventional cardiologists to support patients in the cath lab or by cardiac surgeons in the heart surgery suite; Impella 5.0 and Impella LD, which are percutaneous micro heart pumps with integrated motors and sensors for use primarily in the heart surgery suite; and Impella RP, which is a percutaneous catheter-based axial flow pump that is designed to allow more than four liters of flow per minute.

Amedisys Inc.

Amedisys is a healthcare services company focused on providing care in the home. The company's operations involve servicing patients across the United States through its operating divisions: home health, hospice and personal care. The company's Home Health segment provides healthcare to help its patients recover from surgery or illness, live with chronic diseases, and prevent avoidable hospital readmissions. Hospice care is designed to provide comfort and support for those who are dealing with a terminal illness such as heart disease, pulmonary disease, Alzheimer's or cancer. Personal care provides assistance with the activities of daily living.

BELLEROPHON THERAPEUTICS

Bellerophon Therapeutics is a clinical-stage therapeutics company focused on developing products for the treatment of cardiopulmonary diseases. The company's focus is on the development of its nitric oxide therapy for patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) using its proprietary pulsatile nitric oxide delivery platform, INOpulse. The company is developing INOpulse for the treatment of pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease, which includes PH associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis as well as other pulmonary fibrosing diseases. The company also initiated development of INOpulse for the treatment of PH associated with Sarcoidosis.

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION

Boston Scientific develops, manufactures and markets medical devices. The company's Medical Surgical segment consist of: Endoscopy, which develops and manufactures devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal and pulmonary conditions; and Urology and Pelvic Health, which develops and manufactures devices to treat various urological and pelvic conditions. The company's Rhythm and Neuro segment includes: Cardiac Rhythm Management, which develops and manufactures implantable devices to treat cardiac abnormalities; and Electrophysiology, which develops and manufactures medical technologies used in the diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart.

Cardiovascular Systems Inc.

Cardiovascular Systems is a medical technology company. The company has developed an orbital atherectomy systems (OAS) for both peripheral and coronary commercial applications. The primary base of the company's business is catheter-based platforms capable of treating a range of vessel sizes and plaque types, including calcified plaque. The company's products include its coronary arterial disease (CAD) product, the Diamondback 360 Coronary OAS, which is a catheter-based platform designed to facilitate stent delivery in patients with CAD who are acceptable candidates for percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or stenting due to de novo, severely calcified coronary artery lesions.

Chemed Corporation

Chemed purchases, operates and divests subsidiaries engaged in business activities. The company conducts its business operations in two segments: the VITAS segment (VITAS) and the Roto-Rooter segment (Roto-Rooter). The VITAS segment provides hospice and palliative care services to its patients through a network of physicians, registered nurses, home health aides, social workers, clergy and volunteers. The Roto-Rooter segment provides plumbing, drain cleaning, water restoration and other related services to residential and commercial customers.

CryoLife Inc.

CryoLife is engaged in the manufacturing, processing, and distribution of medical devices and implantable human tissues used in cardiac and vascular surgical procedures for patients with aortic disease. The company has the following product families: BioGlue? Surgical Adhesive products, JOTEC stent grafts and surgical products, On-X mechanical heart valves and surgical products, and implantable cardiac and vascular human tissues. The company's medical devices and preservation services are primarily used by cardiac and vascular surgeons to treat patients with aortic disease, including heart valve disease, and to a lesser extent, other conditions in cardiac and vascular surgery.

EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP

Edwards Lifesciences is engaged in patient-focused medical for structural heart disease, as well as critical care and surgical monitoring. The company is a manufacturer of heart valve systems and repair products used to replace or repair a patient's diseased or defective heart valve. The company is also engaged in hemodynamic and noninvasive brain and tissue oxygenation monitoring systems used to measure a patient's cardiovascular function in the hospital setting. The company's products and technologies are categorized into four main areas: Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement, Transcatheter Mitral and Tricuspid Therapies, Surgical Structural Heart, and Critical Care.

IDEXX Laboratories Inc.

IDEXX Laboratories develops, manufactures, and distributes products and provides services primarily for the companion animal veterinary, livestock and poultry, dairy and water testing markets. The company operates primarily through three business segments: Companion Animal Group, which provides diagnostic and information management-based products and services for the veterinary market; Water Quality Products, which designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes products used in the detection of various microbiological parameters in water; and Livestock, Poultry and Dairy, which provides diagnostic products and services for livestock and poultry health.

LHC Group Inc.

LHC Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides post-acute health care services to its patients. The company's segments include: home health services, which include nursing, medically-oriented social services and physical, occupational, and speech therapy; hospice services, which include pain and symptom management, emotional and spiritual support, inpatient and respite care, homemaker services, dietary counseling, and family bereavement counseling; and home and community-based services, which include assistance with grooming, medication reminders, meal preparation, assistance with feeding, light housekeeping, respite care, transportation, and errand services.

LivaNova Plc

LivaNova is a medical device company focused on the development and delivery of therapeutic solutions. Co. has three product franchises: Neuromodulation, which engaged in the design, development and marketing of neuromodulation therapy for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy and treatment resistant depression; Cardiac Surgery, which engaged in the development, production and sale of cardiovascular surgery products; and Cardiac Rhythm Management, which engaged in the development, manufacturing and marketing of products for the diagnosis, treatment, and management of heart rhythm disorders and heart failure.

Luminex Corp

Luminex develops, manufactures and sells biological testing technologies and products with applications in the life sciences industries, including diagnostics, pharmaceutical and research. The company delivers its products to various market segments, including multiplexing, reduction of labor and ability to test for proteins and nucleic acids. The company's products include: instruments, which include Luminex? 100/200?, FLEXMAP? 3D, MAGPIX?, ARIES?, and ARIES? M1; consumables, which include MicroPlex? Microspheres, MagPlex? Microspheres, and xTAG? Microspheres; software, which includes xPONENT?, TDAS?, SYNCT?, and IDEAS?; and clinical diagnostic assay product families, which include ARIES? Cassettes.

Medtronic Plc

Meridian Bioscience Inc.

Meridian Bioscience is a life science company with principal businesses in the development, manufacture, sale and distribution of diagnostic test kits, primarily for certain gastrointestinal and respiratory infectious diseases, and elevated blood lead levels, and the manufacture and distribution of bulk antigens, antibodies, PCR/qPCR reagents, nucleotides, and bioresearch reagents used by IVD manufacturers and researchers in immunological and molecular tests for human, animal, plant and environmental applications. The company's reportable segments are: Diagnostics, which products span a menu of testing platforms and technologies; and Life Science.

Merit Medical Systems Inc.

Merit Medical Systems manufactures and markets proprietary disposable medical devices used in interventional, diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, particularly in cardiology, radiology, oncology, critical care and endoscopy. The company conducts its business through two segments: Cardiovascular, which includes its Peripheral Intervention, Cardiac Intervention, Cardiovascular and Critical Care, Interventional Oncology and Spine and Breast Cancer Localization and Guidance product groups; and Endoscopy, which provides non-vascular stents to treat gastrointestinal and pulmonary disease including AERO?, AEROmini? and AERO DV? Fully Covered Tracheobronchial Stents and Alimaxx-B? Biliary Stent Systems.

Neogen Corporation

Neogen develops, manufactures, and markets a line of products for food and animal safety. The company's segments are: Food Safety, which is engaged in the development, production and marketing of diagnostic test kits and related products used by food producers and processors to detect harmful natural toxins, foodborne bacteria, allergens and levels of general sanitation; and Animal Safety, which is engaged in the development, production and marketing of products dedicated to animal safety, including a range of consumable products marketed to veterinarians and animal health product distributors, and provides genomic identification and related interpretive bioinformatic services.

Oxford Immunotec Global

Penumbra Inc.

Penumbra is a healthcare company. The company designs, develops, manufactures and markets medical devices. The company's Neuro products include Penumbra System brand of products that provides a form of mechanical thrombectomy used by specialist physicians to revascularize blood vessels that are blocked by clots in the intracranial vasculature. The company's Vascular products include the Ruby Coil System that consists of detachable coils and is used in clinical applications auch as active extravasations, or the escape of blood into surrounding tissue, selective embolization in patients with visceral aneurysms, embolization in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding, and high flow arterial venous malformations.

Quidel Corporation

Quidel is engaged in the development, manufacturing and marketing of diagnostic testing solutions. The company provides diagnostic testing solutions under various brand names, including, among others, the following: Quidel?, QuickVue?, QuickVue+?, Sofia?, Triage?, AmpliVue?, Solana?, Virena?, MicroVue?, Lyra?, FreshCells?, D3?, FastPoint?, ReadyCells?, Super E-Mix?, InflammaDry?, AdenoPlus?, ELVIRA?, ELVIS? and Thyretain?. The company's diagnostic testing solutions are separated into its four product categories: rapid immunoassay, cardiac immunoassay, specialized diagnostic solutions and molecular diagnostic solutions.

T2 BIOSYSTEMS INC

T2 Biosystems is an in vitro diagnostics company that has developed a proprietary technology platform that provides an alternative to existing diagnostic methodologies. The company is using its T2 Magnetic Resonance platform (T2MR?) to develop a set of applications aimed at helping medical personnel make targeted treatment decisions earlier. T2MR enables detection of pathogens, biomarkers and other abnormalities directly from unpurified patient sample types, including whole blood, plasma, serum, saliva, sputum, cerebral spinal fluid and urine, and can detect cellular targets at limits of detection. The company has received market clearance for its two products: T2Dx? Instrument and T2Candida? Panel.

Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.

Veracyte Inc

Veracyte is a genomic diagnostics company. The company's products include the following: Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Xpression Atlas, which includes the Afirma GSC and Xpression Atlas; Percepta Bronchial Genomic Classifier, which improves lung cancer diagnosis by improving the performance of diagnostic bronchoscopies; Envisia Genomic Classifier, which improves diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; and Prosigna Breast Cancer Prognostic Gene Signature Assay, which uses genomic technology to inform next steps for patients with early-stage breast cancer, based on the genomic make-up of their disease.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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