Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 220.60 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Caution warranted; Downgrading Materials

We continue to believe that caution is warranted and we are concerned that key support levels we have been monitoring may not hold -- notably 2,800 and the 200-day MA on the S&P 500 and 4,125 and the 200-day MA on the equal-weighted S&P 500. Below we highlight several negative developments which increase the likelihood of a breakdown below these key S&P 500 support levels.

• Cyclicals are deteriorating. We are downgrading Materials (XLB, RTM) to underweight -- reduce exposure and raise cash where possible. The Sector is succumbing to price and RS deterioration, much like fellow late-cyclical Sector Energy (RYE) which we downgraded to underweight last week. Additionally, cap-weighted Industrials (XLI) and equal-weight Discretionary (RCD) are showing signs of breaking below their all important 200-day MAs... see charts below and pages 2-3.

• Crude oil prices breaking down. As highlighted in our 5/23/19 Insights report, WTI crude oil is breaking below its 200-day MA. While this is certainly negative for the Energy Sector, it also has negative implications on global risk assets considering heightened correlations between the stock market and crude prices... see page 4.

• High yield spreads widening, 10's to 2's Treasury spread narrowing. Both of these indicators are moving in the wrong direction as it relates to the health of the economy, signaling an increasing concern that the economic picture may be poised to deteriorate... see page 4.

• The search for silver linings. On the positive side, the Shanghai Composite remains above its 200-day MA and 2,840-2,850 short-term support. The EEM vs. ACWI ratio is testing an important support level going back to the major bottom in January 2016 (China growth scare). RS for cap-weighted Technology (XLK) remains above a key support level we are watching. FAANG stocks as a whole are hanging in there... see page 5.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Communications, Services, and Transportation: CD-59 Manufactured Housing, CO-19 Cellular Towers, SV-04 IT Consulting, Gov./Global, Large-Cap, and TR-11 Railroads, Small-Cap... see pages 11-20.
Underlyings
Accenture Plc Class A

American Tower Corporation

American Tower is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a real estate investment trusts and an independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate. The company's primary business is the leasing of space on communications sites to wireless service providers, radio and television broadcast companies, wireless data providers, government agencies and municipalities and tenants in a number of other industries. The company also provides tower-related services, including site acquisition, zoning and permitting and structural analysis, which primarily support the company's site leasing business, including the addition of new tenants and equipment on its sites.

Cavco Industries Inc.

Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through a network of independent and the company-owned retailers, planned community operators and residential developers, marketed under a variety of brand names including Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor, Fairmont, Friendship, Chariot Eagle and Lexington. The company is also a producer of park model RVs, vacation cabins and systems-built commercial structures, as well as modular homes built under the Nationwide Homes brand. Each home contains a living room, dining area, kitchen, one to five bedrooms and one or more bathrooms, is equipped with central heat and hot water systems, kitchen appliances, floor coverings and window treatments.

CGI Inc. Class A

CGI Group is engaged in managing information technology services, including outsourcing, systems integration and consulting, software licenses and maintenance, as well as business process services to help clients realize their strategies and create added value.

Crown Castle International Corp

Crown Castle International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns, operates and leases shared communications infrastructure that is geographically dispersed throughout the U.S., including towers and other structures, such as rooftops (collectively, towers), and fiber primarily supporting small cell networks (small cells) and fiber solutions. The company's towers, fiber and small cells assets are collectively referred to herein as communications infrastructure. The company's core business is providing access, including space or capacity, to its shared communications infrastructure via long-term contracts in various forms, including lease, license, sublease and service agreements.

Equinix Inc.

Equinix provides colocation space and related offerings. The company operates International Business Exchange? (IBX?) data centers across the Americas; Europe, Middle East and Africa and Asia-Pacific geographic regions where customers directly interconnect with a network ecosystem of partners and customers. The company's data center solutions include IBX Data Centers and xScale Data Centers. The company's Interconnection Solution connect businesses within and between its data centers across its global platform. The company's edge services help businesses deploy as-a-service networking, security and hardware across its data center footprint, as an alternative to buying, owning and managing the physical infrastructure.

Facebook Inc. Class A

Facebook is building and engaging products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality headsets, and in-home devices. The company's products include: Facebook, which enables people to connect, share, discover, and communicate with each other on mobile devices and personal computers; Instagram, which is a place where people can express themselves through photos, videos, and private messaging, and explore their interests in businesses, creators and communities; Messenger and WhatsApp, which are messaging applications; and Oculus, which connects people through its Oculus virtual reality products.

Gartner Inc.

Gartner is a research and advisory company. The company's principal products and services are delivered through its three business segments: Research, which provides insights and advice across various functional areas of the enterprise through research, briefings, proprietary tools, access to the company's research personnel, peer networking services and membership programs; Conferences, which provides business personnel across an organization the opportunity to learn, share and network; and Consulting, which helps chief information officers and other senior executives driving technology-related strategic initiatives move from insight to action.

Genesee & Wyoming Inc. Class A

Genesee & Wyoming owns or leases freight railroads worldwide. The company has three segments: North American Operations, which includes several regions that serve U.S. states and Canadian provinces and includes short line and regional freight railroads; Australian Operations, which serves New South Wales, the Northern Territory and South Australia and operates the Tarcoola-to-Darwin rail line; and U.K./European Operations, which is led by Freightliner Group Limited, a rail maritime intermodal operator and rail freight provider, as well as regional rail services in Continental Europe.

Infosys Limited ADS

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Materials ETF

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

Kansas City Southern

Kansas City Southern is a transportation holding company with domestic and international rail operations in North America. The company's subsidiary, The Kansas City Southern Railway Company, is a United States Class I railroad that serves a several region in the midwest and southeast regions of United States and has north/south rail route between Kansas City, MO and several main ports along the Gulf of Mexico in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. The company's subsidiary, Kansas City Southern de Mexico, S.A. de C.V. operates a main commercial corridor of the Mexican railroad system and has as its main route a direct rail passageway between Mexico City and Laredo, TX.

Legacy Housing Corp

Legacy Housing builds, sells and finances homes and tiny houses that are distributed through a network of independent retailers and the company-owned stores and also sold directly to manufactured home communities. The company's operations are focused in the southern United States. The company provides floor plan financing for its independent retailers, which takes the form of a consignment arrangement between the retailer and the company The company also provides consumer financing for its products which are sold to end-users through both independent and the company-owned retail locations, and the company provides financing solutions to manufactured housing community owners that buy the company's products for use in their housing communities.

Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund

SBA Communications Corp. Class A

SBA Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure, including tower structures, rooftops, and other structures that support antennas used for wireless communications. The company's operations are in the U.S. and its territories. In its site leasing business, the company leases antenna space to wireless service providers on towers that the company owns or operates and manages rooftop and tower sites for property owners under various contractual arrangements. In its site development business, the company assists wireless service providers in developing and maintaining their own wireless service networks.

Select Sector SPDR-Industrial

Select Sector SPDR-Technology

Skyline Champion Corporation

Skyline Champion is a producer of factory-built housing in the United States and Canada. The company serves as a solution provider across complementary and vertically integrated businesses including manufactured construction, company-owned retail locations, and transportation logistics services. The company produces a range of manufactured and modular homes under a variety of brand names and in a variety of floor plans and price ranges. While most of the homes the company builds are single-family, multi-section, ranch-style homes, it also builds two-story, single-section, and Cape Cod style homes as well as multi-family units such as town homes, apartments, duplexes, and triplexes.

WIPRO LTD

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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