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Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 48.00 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase

In last week's Compass (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing major multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY) testing resistance. The bounce has begun with the S&P 500 ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback. For now, we see a low probability of a meaningful correction if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600. 4460 remains short-term resistance to watch. 4200 is major support below 4300.

Key Supports Holding. Several other indexes/Sectors are holding above major 1-2-year supports, in addition to 4325 on the S&P 500. This includes 34,280 on the Dow, $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI), $28 on equal-weighted Technology (RSPT), $163 on cap-weighted Technology (XLK), $155-157 on Dow Jones Internet (FDN), and $105-$106 on Industrials (XLI), just to name a few. We have likely seen the lows for this pullback if these supports hold, but breaks would likely mean a test of SPX 4200... see below & 3-4.
Treasury Yields and the U.S. Dollar (DXY). Rising Treasury yields appear to be the biggest threat to the equity market, but as long as the 10-year yield is below resistance from the October 2022 highs at 4.3%-4.35%, the pullback is likely to be minor. Similarly, the 2-year and 30-year yields remain below resistance at 5.1% and 4.4%. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is reversing topside its 9-month downtrend at $103.70, a concerning development. Clearly, it has not been a problem yet for stocks, so we would be on the lookout for a false breakout or for the DXY to find resistance at $104.70 or $105.70... see page 5.
Risk-On Signals. High yield spreads remain near 1+ year narrows, and RS for defensive Sectors including Utilities (XLU) and Staples (XLP) is hitting 1+ year lows; these continue to be clear risk-on signals that suggest a minor pullback... see page 6.
Underlyings
Accenture Plc Class A

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation Class A

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding is a holding company. The company provides management and technology consulting, analytics, engineering, digital solutions, mission operations, and cyber knowledge to U.S. and international governments, corporations, and non-profit organizations. The company's services are: Consulting, which focuses on solving client problems and developing mission-oriented solutions; Analytics, which includes decision analytics, automation, and data science solutions; Digital Solutions, which develops, designs, and implements solutions; Engineering, which delivers engineering services and solutions; and Cyber, which focuses on active prevention, detection, and cost effectiveness.

Cameco Corporation

Cameco and its subsidiaries are engaged in the exploration for and the development, mining, refining, conversion and fabrication of uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors in Canada and other countries. Co. has three reportable segments: uranium, which explores for, mines, mills, purchases, and sells uranium concentrate; fuel services, which refines, converts and fabricates uranium concentrate, and purchases and sells conversion services; and electricity, which generates and sells electricity through its 31.6% interest in the Bruce Power Limited Partnership, which operates four nuclear reactors and manages the overall site in southern Ontario.

Centrus Energy Corporation

Centrus Energy is a supplier of nuclear fuel and services for the nuclear power industry. The company operates two business segments: low-enriched uranium (LEU), which supplies various components of nuclear fuel to utilities; and contract services, which provides engineering, design, and manufacturing services to government and private sector customers. The company's LEU business involves the sale of low-enriched uranium, its components, and natural uranium to utilities operating commercial nuclear power plants. LEU is a component in the production of nuclear fuel for reactors that produce electricity. The company supplies LEU to both domestic and international utilities for use in nuclear reactors.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation Class A

Cognizant Technology Solutions is a services company, transforming customers' business, operating and technology models for the digital era. The company's services include digital services and solutions, consulting, application development, systems integration, application testing, application maintenance, infrastructure services and business process services. Additionally, the company develops, licenses, implements and supports proprietary and third-party software products and platforms. The company has organized its services and solutions into four practice areas: Digital Business, Digital Operations, Digital Systems and Technology and Consulting.

Denison Mines Corp.

Denison Mines is engaged in uranium mining and related activities, including the acquisition, exporation and development of uranium bearing properties and the extraction, processing and selling of uranium. The environmental services division of Co. provides mine decommissioning and decommissioned site monitoring services for third parties. Co. is also in the business of recycling uranium-bearing waste materials, referred to as "alternate feed materials", for the recovery of uranium, alone or in combination with other metals.

Equinix Inc.

Equinix provides colocation space and related offerings. The company operates International Business Exchange? (IBX?) data centers across the Americas; Europe, Middle East and Africa and Asia-Pacific geographic regions where customers directly interconnect with a network ecosystem of partners and customers. The company's data center solutions include IBX Data Centers and xScale Data Centers. The company's Interconnection Solution connect businesses within and between its data centers across its global platform. The company's edge services help businesses deploy as-a-service networking, security and hardware across its data center footprint, as an alternative to buying, owning and managing the physical infrastructure.

Fabrinet

Globant SA

INFOSYS LTD

Jabil Inc.

Jabil is a provider of manufacturing services and solutions. The company provides electronics design, production and product management services to companies in various industries and end markets. The company's manufacturing and supply chain management services and solutions include design, planning, fabrication and assembly, delivery and managing the flow of resources and products. The company's segments include: Electronics Manufacturing Services, which utilizes information technology, supply chain design and engineering, technologies centered on primary electronics; and Diversified Manufacturing Services, which provides engineering solutions, with a focus on material sciences, technologies and healthcare.

Leidos Holdings Inc.

Leidos Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in a science, engineering and information technology that provides services and solutions in the defense, intelligence, civil and health markets. The company's defense solutions segment deploys solutions in the areas of intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, enterprise information technology, integrated systems, cybersecurity and global services. The company's civil segment integrates and protects physical, digital and data domains. The company's health segment delivers solutions to federal and commercial customers that are responsible for the health and well-being of people including service members and veterans.

LiveRamp Holdings Inc.

LiveRamp Holdings is a global technology company. The company provides enterprise customer management platform that help organizations utilize customer data to deliver products and experiences. A main component of the company's platform is the omnichannel, deterministic identity graph. Utilizing the company's identity graph, the LiveRamp platform resolves a customer's data (first-, second-, or third-party) to consumer identifiers that represent real people in a way that protects consumer privacy.

RCM Technologies

RCM Technologies is a provider of business and technology solutions. Additionally, the company provides health care staffing services through its Specialty Health Care Services group. The company consists of three operating segments: Engineering, which consists of Energy Services and Aerospace Services business units; Specialty Health Care, which focuses on long-term and short-term staffing as well as executive search and placement; and Information Technology Services, which provides staff supplementation services and project solutions with physical locations in the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico primarily supporting financial, technical, manufacturing, life sciences and distribution applications.

Science Applications International Corp.

Science Applications International provides technical, engineering and enterprise information technology (IT) services. The company provides engineering, systems integration and information technology offerings for government projects and provides a range of services with an emphasis on differentiated technology services. The company's offerings include: engineering; technology and equipment platform integration; maintenance of ground and maritime systems; logistics; training and simulation; operation and program support services; and end-to-end services spanning the design, development, integration, deployment, management and operations, sustainment and security of its customers' entire IT infrastructure.

Universal Security Instruments Inc.

Universal Security Instruments designs and markets a variety of safety products consisting primarily of smoke alarms, carbon monoxide alarms and related products. The company also markets products to the electrical distribution trade through its wholly-owned subsidiary, USI Electric, Inc. The electrical distribution trade includes electrical and lighting distributors as well as manufactured housing companies. The company's line of safety alarms consists of units powered by replaceable batteries, 10 year sealed batteries, or are 120 volt with battery backup. The company also markets door chimes, ventilation products, ground fault circuit interrupters, and other electrical devices.

Uranium Energy Corp

Uranium Energy is engaged in uranium mining and related activities, including exploration, pre-extraction, extraction and processing, on uranium projects located in the United States and Paraguay. The company utilizes in-situ recovery (ISR) mining, which involves circulating oxidized water through an underground uranium deposit, dissolving the uranium and then pumping the uranium-rich solution to the surface for processing. The company has one uranium mine located in the State of Texas, the Palangana Mine, which utilizes ISR mining and has commenced extraction of uranium oxide, or yellowcake. The company has one uranium processing facility located in the State of Texas, the Hobson Processing Facility.

Vectrus

Vectrus provides facility and logistics services and information technology and network communications services in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the U.S. The company's facility and logistics services consist of airfield management, ammunition management, civil engineering, communications, emergency services, equipment maintenance, repair and services, life support activities, public works, security, transportation operations, and warehouse management and distribution. The company's information technology and network communications services consist of communications, management and service support, network and cyber security, systems installation and activation and mission support.

WIPRO LTD

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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