Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Watching For The Initial LowThe trend remains down on the S&P 500 as we wait for the elusive “initial low.†We also continue to acknowledge that the major averages remain deeply oversold and there is potential for a snap-back rally considering how far the rubber band is stretched to the downside. Put bluntly, the S&P 500 could make its initial low at any time. One important hurdle that will help give us confidence that an initial low has been made is when the S&P 500 is able to break above the steep downtrend which began on March 4th... see the hourly chart below.
· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are upgrading Communications to overweight due to RS breaking above resistance for the cap-weighted Sector (XLC). Additionally, the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOXX) is making a bullish RS reversal while it holds above key support... see pages 2-3.
· High Yield Spreads, WTI Crude Oil. In order to give us confidence that the equity market is making a bottom, we are watching for high yield spreads to narrow and for WTI crude oil to find a bottom. These two things are not unrelated considering the significant energy representation within high yield... see page 4.
· S&P 500 Levels. The S&P 500 has currently made a peak to trough decline of 35.4% as it approaches the 2,100-2,200 support zone we have highlighted previously. We compare the current decline with eight prior recessions/bear markets since 1970, and we find that current declines are about average... see page 5.
· Small-Caps, Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500. While long-term price and RS trends remain bearish, the Russell 2000 is showing very early signs of potential price and RS bottoms. Considering small-caps helped lead us into this mess, it would make sense for them to help lead us out of it as well. We need to see this continue... see page 5.
· % of S&P 500 Stocks Above Their 200-Day and 50-day MAs. Signaling a continuation of oversold conditions, the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day and 50-day MAs sits at 3% and 1%, respectively. We continue to monitor for breadth thrusts above 15-20% or bullish divergences, both of which would help give us confidence the market is bottoming.
Activision Blizzard is a global developer and publisher of interactive entertainment content and services. The company's segments are: Activision Publishing, Inc., which is a global developer and publisher of interactive software products and entertainment content, particularly for the console platform; Blizzard Entertainment, Inc., which is a global developer and publisher of interactive software products and entertainment content, particularly for the personal computers platform; and King Digital Entertainment, which is a global developer and publisher of interactive entertainment content and services, particularly for the mobile platform, including for Google Inc.'s Android and Apple Inc.'s iOS.
Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company. The company primarily provides x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated into an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and personnel GPUs, and development services; server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company also licenses portions of its intellectual property portfolio. The company's segments are: Computing and Graphics, which consists of desktop, notebooks, commercial, and chipsets products; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom, which includes server processors, and embedded P\processors products.
Air Products and Chemicals serves customers globally with a portfolio of products, services, and solutions that include atmospheric gases, process and other gases, equipment, and services. The company is a supplier of hydrogen and is engaged in helium and liquefied natural gas (LNG) process technology and equipment. The company also develops, engineers, builds, owns and operates industrial gas projects, including gasification projects that convert abundant natural resources into syngas for the production of power, fuels and chemicals. The company designs and manufactures equipment for air separation, hydrocarbon recovery and purification, LNG, and liquid helium and liquid hydrogen transport and storage.
Electronic Arts develops, markets, publishes and distributes games, content and services that can be played and watched on a variety of platforms, including game consoles, personal computers, and mobile phones. The company markets and sells its games and services through digital distribution channels and through retail channels. Digitally, the company's console games and services can be purchased through third-party storefronts. In its games and services, the company utilizes brands that it either wholly own or license from others. The company develops and publishes games and services across genres. Within and alongside its games, the company provides live services, including in-game purchases, downloadable content, and esports.
Fortinet provides cybersecurity solutions. The company's product offerings consist of its FortiGate product family and its non-FortiGate products. The company's FortiGate hardware and software licenses are sold with a set of security services. These security services are enabled by FortiGuard, which provides threat research and artificial intelligence capabilities from a global cloud network to deliver protection services to each FortiGate appliance. The company's non-FortiGate products include the Fortinet Security Fabric (such as FortiAP, FortiAnalyzer, FortiSwitch and FortiManager), certain cloud security products (such as virtual machines and cloud services) and other products.
Intel is a data-centric company. The company's operating segments are: Data Center Group, which develops platforms for compute, storage, and network functions; Internet of Things Group, which facilitates its customers creating, storing, and processing data; Mobileye, which provides assistance and automation solutions; Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group, which provides memory and storage products based on Intel? Optane? technology and Intel? 3D NAND technology; Programmable Solutions Group, which provides programmable semiconductors; and Client Computing Group, which connects people to data, allowing each person to focus, create, and engage in ways that unlock their individual potential.
Mellanox Technologies is a fabless semiconductor company that designs, manufactures and sells interconnect products and solutions primarily based on the InfiniBand and Ethernet standards. Co.'s products facilitate data transmission between servers, storage systems, communications infrastructure equipment and other embedded systems. Co.'s products include integrated circuits, adapter cards, switch systems, multi-core and network processors, cables, modules, software, services and accessories as an integral part of a total end-to-end networking solution used in multiple markets, including high-performance computing, cloud, Web 2.0, storage, financial services, and enterprise data center.
Nova Measuring Instruments is engaged in the design, development, production of integrated process control systems for use in the manufacture of semiconductors, also known as integrated circuits or chips. Co.'s product portfolio includes a complete set of, integrated and stand-alone metrology platforms suited for dimensional, films and material metrology measurements for process control across multiple semiconductor manufacturing process steps including lithography, Etch, CMP and deposition. Co.'s solutions utilize optical spectral reflectometry and X-ray technologies combined with advanced software modeling and unique algorithmic capabilities.
NVIDIA engages in graphics processing unit (GPU)-based visual computing and accelerated computing platforms. The company has two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor, which are based on a single underlying architecture. The company's GPU product brands are aimed at markets including GeForce for gamers; Quadro for designers; Tesla and DGX for artificial intelligence data scientists and big data researchers; and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users. The company's Tegra brand integrates an entire computer onto a single chip, and incorporates GPUs and multi-core CPUs to drive supercomputing for autonomous robots, drones, and cars, as well as for game consoles and mobile gaming and entertainment devices.
Silgan Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company manufactures rigid packaging for consumer goods products. The company operates three businesses; its metal container business, which used primarily by processors and packagers for food products, such as vegetables, soup, proteins, tomato based products, adult nutritional drinks and fruit ; its closures business, which manufactures metal and plastic closures and dispensing systems for food and beverage and health care products; and its plastic container business, which manufactures custom designed and stock plastic containers for personal care and health care products, including containers for mouthwash, shampoos, and conditioners.
Sturm, Ruger & Company is primarily engaged in the design, manufacture, and sale of firearms to domestic customers. The company has two reportable operating segments, which are firearms and castings. The firearms segment manufactures and sells rifles, pistols, and revolvers under the Ruger name and trademark. Most firearms are available in several models based upon caliber, finish, barrel length, and other features. The castings segment manufactures and sells investment castings made from steel alloys and metal injection molding (MIM) parts for internal use in the firearms segment. The castings and MIM parts sold to outside customers, either directly or through manufacturers' representatives.
Texas Instruments designs and makes semiconductors that it sells to electronics designers and manufacturers. The company has two reportable segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The company's analog semiconductors change signals, such as sound, temperature, pressure or images to a stream of digital data. The company's analog segment primary product lines includes: power, signal chain, and high volume. The company's embedded processors are designed to handle specific tasks and can be optimized for various combinations of performance, power and cost, depending on the application. The company's embedded processing segment primary product lines includes: connected microcontrollers and processors.
WD-40 is engaged in developing and selling products that solve problems in workshops, factories and homes. The company markets its maintenance products and its homecare and cleaning products under the following brands: WD-40?, 3-IN-ONE?, GT85?, X-14?, 2000 Flushes?, Carpet Fresh?, no vac?, Spot Shot?, 1001?, Lava? and Solvol?. The WD-40 brand includes the WD-40 Multi-Use Product and the WD-40 Specialist? and WD-40 BIKE? product lines. The company's brands are sold in various locations. Maintenance products are sold in markets in North, Central and South America, Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Homecare and cleaning products are sold in North America, the United Kingdom and Australia.
Wheaton Precious Metals is engaged in the silver mining business.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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