Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.56 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Bulls Remain In Control

It is hard to believe the market is within reach of its prior highs considering everything that has transpired this year: rioting/looting, a global pandemic, historic unemployment levels, and rising US-China tensions. The market is looking past these concerns in favor of the positives, namely: historic fiscal and monetary support, reopening the economy/flattening the curve, COVID-19 vaccine/treatment hopes, and low rates. As long as the breakouts that we highlighted last week (and again below) continue to hold, a bullish stance is appropriate. Below we highlight reasons for our bullish outlook, and also what we are watching that will give us clues that things could be going sour. We remain vigilant as market dynamics can change rapidly.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are watching the traditionally defensive areas of the market, including Staples (XLP, RHS), Utilities (XLU), real estate (VNQ, SCHH, XLRE), and telecommunications (IYZ). These areas have been laggards since March but are showing some early signs of RS improvement. Could it be a signal that investors are gearing-up for declines?... see pages 2-3.

· Breakouts Holding, Nasdaq 100 Uptrend Intact. The S&P 500 is holding above 3000 and the 200-day MA breakout level. As long as the S&P 500 is above this support level it tells us the bulls are in control. If there is a break below 3000, the next support levels to watch would be 2980 followed by the much bigger 2934.49 (the 61.8% Fib retracement) support level. Similarly, breakouts in the Dow Jones Industrials, small-caps (Russell 2000), mid-caps (Russell Mid Cap, S&P 400), and the MSCI ACWI have held strong and all of these indexes show RS improvement. This is bullish as it indicates improving breadth... see chart below and page 4.

· US Dollar, EM Equities. The US dollar (DXY) is breaking below key 98.50 support as EM equities (EEM) break above key resistance at $37.50-38. These developments suggest improving risk appetites and help add to our constructive outlook... see page 5.

· What About Valuations? Forward-looking valuation metrics suggest the market is just as expensive, or more expensive, than it was in February. This is on our list of potential concerns, however valuation metrics historically are a poor market timing tool.
Underlyings
Acushnet Holdings Corp.

Acushnet Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes golf products. The company's products include golf balls, golf clubs, wedges and putters, golf shoes, golf gloves, golf gear and golf and ski outerwear and apparel. The company is also engaged in custom imprinted golf balls. This includes printing corporate logos, tournament logos, country club or resort logos, and personalization on Titleist and Pinnacle golf balls. The company designs, assembles and sells golf clubs (drivers, fairways, hybrids and irons) under the Titleist brand, wedges under the Vokey Design brand and putters under the Scotty Cameron brand.

Big Lots Inc.

Big Lots is a discount retailer. The company's primary merchandising categories include Furniture (upholstery, mattress, and case goods departments), Seasonal (Christmas trim, lawn and garden, and summer departments), Soft Home (fashion bedding, utility bedding, bath, window, decorative textile, home organization, and frames departments), Food (beverage and grocery, candy and snacks departments), Consumables (health, beauty and cosmetics, plastics, paper, chemical, and pet departments), Hard Home (small appliances, table top, food preparation, stationery, greeting cards, and home maintenance departments), and Electronics, Toys, and Accessories (electronics, toys, jewelry, and hosiery departments).

Boliden AB

Boliden AB produces base metals such as zinc, copper and lead for industrial customers throughout Europe. Co.'s operations are conducted within two business areas, namely Mines and Smelters. Co.'s mining operations comprise eight mines located in four areas: Aitik, the Boliden Area and Garpenberg in Sweden, and Tara in Ireland. Co.'s exploration focuses on deposits that contain zinc, copper and precious metals. Co.'s smelters comprise the Kokkola and Odda zinc smelters, the Ronnskar and Harjavalta copper smelters, and the Bergsoe lead smelter. Co.'s smelters, Ronnskar, Harjavalta, Kokkola, Odda and Bergsoe, produce pure metals, customized alloys, and by-products such as sulphuric acid.

Boyd Gaming Corporation

Boyd Gaming is a multi-jurisdictional gaming company. The company operates owned gaming entertainment properties in Nevada, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The company has three reportable business segments: Las Vegas Locals, which includes casinos that primarily serve the resident population of the Las Vegas metropolitan area; Downtown Las Vegas, focuses on gaming enthusiasts from Hawaii and tour and travel agents in Hawaii; and Midwest and South, which includes land-based casinos, dockside riverboat casinos, racinos and barge-based casinos. The company also operates a travel agency and a captive insurance company that underwrites travel-related insurance.

Brunswick Corporation

Brunswick is a global designer, manufacturer, and marketer of recreation marine products including marine engines, boats, and parts and accessories for those products. The company operates in the following segments: Marine Engine, which manufactures and markets a range of outboard, sterndrive, and inboard engine and propulsion systems under, among other brand names, Mercury, Mercury MerCruiser, Mercury Racing, and MotorGuide brands; and Boat, which manufactures and markets the following types of boats: fiberglass sport boats, cruisers, sport fishing and center-console, offshore fishing, aluminum and fiberglass fishing, pontoon, utility, deck, inflatable, tow/wake, and heavy-gauge aluminum.

Caesars Entertainment Inc

Eldorado Resorts is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a gaming and hospitality company that owns and operates gaming facilities. The company's properties, which are located in Ohio, Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana and Missouri, feature slot machines and video lottery terminals, table games and hotel rooms. The company's gaming operations include hotels, restaurants, bars, entertainment, racing, retail shops and other services. The company also operates Racelinebet.com, a national account wagering service that provides online and telephone wagering on horse races.

Century Casinos Inc.

Century Casinos is an international casino entertainment company that develops and operates gaming establishments as well as related lodging, restaurant, horse racing and entertainment facilities. The company owns casino operations in North America and England; develops a racetrack and entertainment center (REC) in Edmonton, Canada; holds interest in casino licenses throughout Poland; holds interest in a REC in Calgary, Canada, and the pari-mutuel off-track betting network in southern Alberta, Canada; manages cruise ship-based casinos on international waters; manages a hotel, entertainment and gaming club in Vietnam through a majority-owned subsidiary, and provides gaming services in Argentina.

Churchill Downs Incorporated

Churchill Downs is a racing, online wagering and gaming entertainment company. The company manages its operations through three reportable segments: Churchill Downs, Online Wagering, and Gaming. Churchill Downs includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing at Churchill Downs Racetrack and Derby City Gaming. Online Wagering includes the company's TwinSpires business and its online sports betting and iGaming business. Gaming includes casino properties and associated racetrack or jai alai facilities which support the casino license as applicable.

Dick's Sporting Goods Inc.

Dick's Sporting Goods is an omni-channel sporting goods retailer offering sports equipment, apparel, footwear and accessories. The company also owns and operates Golf Galaxy, Field & Stream and other specialty concept stores, and Dick's Team Sports HQ, an all-in-one youth sports digital platform offering scheduling, communications and live scorekeeping through its GameChanger mobile apps, free league management services, custom uniforms and fan wear, and access to donations and sponsorships. The company provides products to its customers through its retail stores and online. The company is also involved in local communities, sponsoring teams in various sports.

Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General is a discount retailer. The company's consumables products includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. The company's seasonal products include decorations, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. The company's home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The company's apparel includes casual everyday apparel, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.

Five Below Inc.

Five Below is a retailer providing a range of merchandise targeted at the tween and teen demographic. The company provides an assortment of products, all priced at $5 and below, including select brands and licensed merchandise across eight worlds: Style, Room, Sports, Tech, Create, Party, Candy and Now. The company operates in states that include Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, West Virginia, North Carolina, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Maine, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Minnesota, California and Arkansas.

Hibbett Sports Inc.

Hibbett Sports is an athletic-inspired fashion retailer primarily located in small and mid-sized communities across the country primarily in the South, Southwest, Mid-Atlantic and the Midwest regions. The company's merchandise assortment features a primary selection of brand name merchandise focusing on athletic footwear, athletic and fashion apparel, team sports equipment and related accessories. The company's Hibbett Sports stores includes free-standing stores, and stores in enclosed malls. The company's City Gear stores are located primarily in strip centers. The company's Sports Additions stores provides athletic footwear with the remainder consisting of headwear and apparel.

Johnson Outdoors Inc. Class A

Johnson Outdoors manufactures and markets seasonal outdoor recreation products used primarily for fishing from a boat, diving, paddling, hiking and camping. The company has four business segments: Fishing, which includes the Minn Kota electric motors for quiet trolling, the Humminbird sonar and GPS equipment for fishfinding, navigation and marine cartography, and Cannon downriggers for controlled-depth fishing; Camping, which includes consumer, commercial and military tents and accessories, sleeping bags, camping furniture and stoves; Watercraft Recreation, which designs and markets canoes and kayaks; and Diving, which manufactures and markets underwater diving products for recreational divers.

Malibu Boats Inc. Class A

Malibu Boats is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, Malibu Boats Holdings, LLC, the company is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of recreational powerboats, including performance sport boats, sterndrive and outboard boats under four brands: Malibu, Axis, Cobalt, and Pursuit. The company's product portfolio is used for a range of recreational boating activities including, among others, water sports such as water skiing, wakeboarding and wake surfing, as well as recreational boating. The company also provides various accessories and aftermarket parts. The company's boats are constructed of fiberglass, available in a range of sizes, hull designs and propulsion systems (i.e., inboard, sterndrive and outboard).

MarineMax Inc.

MarineMax is a recreational boat and yacht retailer. Through its retail locations, the company sells new and used recreational boats, including pleasure and fishing boats. The company also sells related marine products, including engines, trailers, parts, and accessories. In addition, the company provides repair, maintenance, and slip and storage services; arranges related boat financing, insurance, and extended service contracts; provides boat and yacht brokerage sales; yacht charter services; and operates a yacht charter business in the British Virgin Islands. The company also owns Fraser Yachts Group S.R.L., a yacht brokerage and yacht services company with operations in various countries.

MasterCraft Boat Holdings

MasterCraft Boat Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of recreational powerboats sold under MasterCraft, NauticStar, Crest, and Aviara brands. The company's segments include: MasterCraft, which produces MasterCraft and Aviara boats for water skiing, wakeboarding, wake surfing, and general recreational boating; NauticStar, which produces boats for saltwater fishing and general recreational boating; and Crest, which produces pontoon boats which are primarily used for general recreational boating. In addition, the company provides various accessories, including trailers and aftermarket parts.

Michaels Companies Inc

Michaels Companies is an arts and crafts retailer in North America, providing materials, project ideas and education for creative activities. The company also operates a wholesale business under the Darice brand name and a custom framing business under the Artistree brand name. The Michaels store provides general crafts, home decor and seasonal, framing and papercrafting products. The company's Darice business provides a range of craft and hobby items. The company also has online platforms including Michaels.com, ConsumerCrafts.com, Darice.com, AaronBrothers.com (its online framing solution) and its Michaels app, which connects its store and online experiences.

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.

Monarch Casino & Resort, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Golden Road Motor Inn, Inc., owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel/casino facility in Reno, NV (the Atlantis). The company's wholly owned subsidiaries, High Desert Sunshine, Inc., Golden East, Inc. and Golden North, Inc., each owns separate parcels of land located proximate to the Atlantis. The Atlantis includes casino space, guest rooms and suites, food outlets, espresso and pastry bars, a health spa and salon with an enclosed pool, retail outlets providing clothing and gift shop merchandise, a family entertainment center, and banquet, convention and meeting room space.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is a holding company. The company and its subsidiaries buys overproduced, overstocked, and closeout merchandise from manufacturers, wholesalers, and other retailers. The company's product offerings include: cooking utensils, dishes, appliances, plastic containers, cutlery, storage and garbage bags, detergents and cleaning supplies; packaged food including coffee, bottled non-carbonated beverages and salty snacks; household goods including bedding and towels; books and stationery; floor coverings including laminate flooring, commercial and residential carpeting, area rugs and floor mats; and electronics, including air conditioners, home electronics and cellular accessories.

Palestine Industrial Investment Co.

Penn National Gaming Inc.

Penn National Gaming is an owner and manager of gaming and racing facilities and video gaming terminal operations with a focus on slot machine entertainment. In addition, the company operates an interactive gaming division through its subsidiary, Penn Interactive Ventures, LLC. The company's segment's properties include Ameristar East Chicago, Hollywood Casino Bangor, 1st Jackpot Casino, Ameristar Vicksburg, Boomtown Biloxi, Boomtown Bossier City, Ameristar Black Hawk, Cactus Petes and Horseshu, Ameristar Council Bluffs, Argosy Casino Alton, Argosy Casino Riverside, Freehold Raceway, Retama Park Racetrack, Sam Houston Race Park and Valley Race Park, and Sanford-Orlando Kennel Club, among others.

Pool Corporation

Pool is a wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment and related leisure products and a distributor of irrigation and related products. The company's products include: maintenance products; repair and replacement parts for pool equipment; packaged pool kits including walls, liners, braces and coping for in-ground and above-ground pools; pool equipment and components for new pool construction and the remodeling of existing pools; irrigation and related products; building materials; commercial products; and other pool construction and recreational products, which consist of a number of product categories and include discretionary recreational and related outdoor lifestyle products.

Red Rock Resorts Inc. Class A

Red Rock Resorts is a holding company that manages and owns an indirect equity interest in Station Casinos LLC (Station LLC), through which it conducts all of its operations. Station LLC is a gaming, development and management company that develops and operates casino and entertainment properties. Station LLC owns and operates gaming and entertainment facilities and casinos, providing slot machines, table games and hotel rooms in the Las Vegas regional market. Station LLC also manages Graton Resort & Casino in Sonoma County, California on behalf of a Native American tribe. The company holds an indirect equity interest in Station LLC through its ownership interest in Station Holdco LLC.

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.

Sportmans Warehouse Holdings

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an outdoor sporting goods retailer that carries merchandise from manufacturers such as Browning, Carhartt and Coleman. The company also carries private label and make-up offerings under the Rustic Ridge?, Killik?, Lost Creek and Sportsman's Warehouse brands as well as make-up items through vendors such as Tikka, and Camp Chef. Further, the company provides its customers with various in-store, technical support services such as gunsmithing and firearm service plans. The company's stores are organized into six departments: Camping; Clothing; Fishing; Footwear; Hunting and Shooting; and Optics, Electronics, Accessories and Other.

Sturm Ruger & Company Inc.

Sturm, Ruger & Company is primarily engaged in the design, manufacture, and sale of firearms to domestic customers. The company has two reportable operating segments, which are firearms and castings. The firearms segment manufactures and sells rifles, pistols, and revolvers under the Ruger name and trademark. Most firearms are available in several models based upon caliber, finish, barrel length, and other features. The castings segment manufactures and sells investment castings made from steel alloys and metal injection molding (MIM) parts for internal use in the firearms segment. The castings and MIM parts sold to outside customers, either directly or through manufacturers' representatives.

YETI Holdings

Yeti is a designer, marketer, and distributor of products for the outdoor and recreation market which are sold under the YETI brand. The company's product portfolio is comprised of three categories: Coolers and Equipment; Drinkware; and Other. The company's Coolers and Equipment category includes hard coolers, soft coolers, outdoor equipment and other products, as well as accessories and replacement parts for these products. The company's Drinkware category includes its stainless-steel drinkware products and related accessories. In addition, the company's Other category is primarily comprised of ice substitutes, and YETI-branded gear, such as shirts, hats, and other miscellaneous products.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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