Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 227.65 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Deterioration beneath the surface

In last week's Compass we highlighted several cyclical areas of the market that were at or near support - areas we often look to in order to gauge risk sentiment. We posited that if support levels hold we could be looking at a pullback similar to that of May, but that breakdowns would likely lead to a deeper correction similar to October and/or December of 2018. Support levels held for the majority of these cyclical areas of the market, but not all. Below we highlight these and other concerning developments which show that there is some deterioration beneath the surface, leading us to believe the potential for a deeper correction has increased.

• 10Y/2Y Treasury yield spread. This closely followed recession indicator has dropped to 7 bps -- new YTD lows and levels not seen since 2007... see chart below.

• Breadth. The advance/decline (A/D) line on the S&P 500 exhibits signs of waning upside momentum, however the general pattern of higher lows remains intact... see page 3.

• Cyclicals vs. Staples. Important support levels have been violated in both the cap- and equal-weighted consumer discretionary vs. staples ratios... see page 4.

• Crude oil. Brent crude oil prices have broken below the $59.45 support level, and it may only be a matter of time before WTI breaks below $50.50 support... see page 5.

• High yield spreads. High yield spreads remain elevated and are above the highs set in early June following the market pullback in May... see page 5.

• Foreign equities. As noted last week, EM (EEM) and EAFE (EFA) both broke below important support areas -- levels that held as support in early June.
In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Utilities, Health Care, Services, and Financials: UT-19 Water Utilities, HC-28 Home Health Care Services, SV-24 Transactions Systems, and FN-51 REITs, Healthcare... see pages 12-26.
Underlyings
Addus HomeCare

Addus HomeCare is a home care services provider operating in three segments: personal care; hospice; and home health. The company's personal care segment provides non-medical assistance with activities of daily living, primarily to persons who are at increased risk of hospitalization or institutionalization. The company's hospice segment provides physical, emotional and spiritual care including palliative nursing care, social work, spiritual counseling, homemaker services and bereavement counseling. The company's home health segment provides home health services on a short-term, intermittent or episodic basis to individuals, typically to assist patients recovering from an illness or injury.

Amedisys Inc.

Amedisys is a healthcare services company focused on providing care in the home. The company's operations involve servicing patients across the United States through its operating divisions: home health, hospice and personal care. The company's Home Health segment provides healthcare to help its patients recover from surgery or illness, live with chronic diseases, and prevent avoidable hospital readmissions. Hospice care is designed to provide comfort and support for those who are dealing with a terminal illness such as heart disease, pulmonary disease, Alzheimer's or cancer. Personal care provides assistance with the activities of daily living.

American Water Works Company Inc.

American Water Works is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a publicly-traded water and wastewater utility company. The company provides drinking water, wastewater and other related services to people in various states. The company's Regulated Businesses provide water and wastewater services to residential, commercial, industrial, public authority, fire service and sale for resale customers. The company's Market-Based Businesses provide complementary home services primarily to residential and smaller commercial customers and water and wastewater services to the United States government on military installations, as well as municipalities, utilities and industrial customers.

Cadiz Inc.

Cadiz is a natural resources development company. The company's business is to acquire and develop land with water resources for various uses, including groundwater supply, groundwater storage and agriculture. The company's portfolio of land and water resource assets is located in proximity to the Colorado River and the Colorado River Aqueduct, the principal source of imported water for Southern California, and provides the company with the opportunity to participate in a variety of water supply, water storage, and conservation programs with public water agencies and other partners. The company's contiguous land in the Cadiz and Fenner valleys of eastern San Bernardino County, CA is zoned for agricultural development.

California Water Service Group

California Water Service Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the production, purchase, storage, treatment, testing, distribution and sale of water for domestic, industrial, public and irrigation uses, and for fire protection. The company also provides non-regulated water-related services under agreements with municipalities and other private companies. The non-regulated services include full water system operation, billing and meter reading services. Non-regulated operations also include the lease of communication antenna sites, lab services, and promotion of other non-regulated services.

Chemed Corporation

Chemed purchases, operates and divests subsidiaries engaged in business activities. The company conducts its business operations in two segments: the VITAS segment (VITAS) and the Roto-Rooter segment (Roto-Rooter). The VITAS segment provides hospice and palliative care services to its patients through a network of physicians, registered nurses, home health aides, social workers, clergy and volunteers. The Roto-Rooter segment provides plumbing, drain cleaning, water restoration and other related services to residential and commercial customers.

Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated

Community Healthcare Trust is a healthcare real estate company. The company owns and acquires real estate properties that are leased to hospitals, doctors, healthcare systems or other healthcare service providers in its target submarkets. The company's investment portfolio is diversified among healthcare facility type and segments such as medical office buildings, physician clinics, ambulatory surgery centers, behavioral facilities, dialysis clinics, oncology centers, acute care hospitals, assisted living facilities, post-acute care hospitals, skilled nursing facilities, and specialty hospitals.

Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sau Paulo ADR

Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated

Diebold Nixdorf is engaged in enabling Connected Commerce?. The company automates, digitizes and transforms the way people bank and shop. The company's integrated solutions connect digital and physical channels for consumers. The company's operating structure is focused on its two customer segments consisting of Banking and Retail. The products for banking customers consist of cash recyclers and dispensers, deposit terminals, teller automation and kiosk technologies, as well as physical security solutions. The retail product portfolio includes modular, integrated and mobile point of sale and self-checkout terminals that meet automation and omnichannel requirements of consumers.

Essential Utilities Inc.

Aqua America is the holding company for regulated utilities providing water or wastewater services in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Illinois, North Carolina, New Jersey, Indiana, and Virginia. The company's operating subsidiary, Aqua Pennsylvania, Inc., provides water or wastewater services and its service territory is located in the suburban areas in counties north and west of the City of Philadelphia as well as in other counties in Pennsylvania. The company's other regulated utility subsidiaries provide similar services in other states. In addition, the company's market-based activities are conducted through Aqua Infrastructure, LLC and Aqua Resources Inc.

Healthpeak Properties Inc.

HCP is a real estate investment trust which invests in real estate serving the healthcare industry. The company acquires, develops, leases, and manages and disposes of healthcare real estate. The company's segments are: senior housing triple-net and senior housing operating portfolio, which include independent living facilities, assisted living facilities, memory care facilities, and continuing care retirement communities; life science, which contains laboratory and office space for biotechnology, medical device and pharmaceutical companies, scientific research institutions, government agencies and other organizations; and medical office, which contains physicians' offices and examination rooms.

LHC Group Inc.

LHC Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides post-acute health care services to its patients. The company's segments include: home health services, which include nursing, medically-oriented social services and physical, occupational, and speech therapy; hospice services, which include pain and symptom management, emotional and spiritual support, inpatient and respite care, homemaker services, dietary counseling, and family bereavement counseling; and home and community-based services, which include assistance with grooming, medication reminders, meal preparation, assistance with feeding, light housekeeping, respite care, transportation, and errand services.

LTC Properties Inc.

LTC Properties is a health care real estate investment trust. The company invests in seniors housing and health care properties. The company primarily invest in: Skilled nursing centers, which provide restorative, rehabilitative and nursing care for people not requiring the treatment available at acute care hospitals; Assisted living communities, which serves people who require assistance with activities of daily living, but do not require the constant supervision that skilled nursing facilities provide; Independent living communities, known as retirement communities or senior apartments; and Memory care communities, which provide options for people with Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia.

Middlesex Water Co.

Middlesex Water is a water utility company. The company owns and operates regulated water utility and wastewater systems in New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania. The company also operates water and wastewater systems under contract on behalf of municipal and private clients in New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland.

National Health Investors Inc.

National Health Investors is a self-managed real estate investment trust, which focuses on sale-leaseback, joint-venture, mortgage and mezzanine financing of senior housing and medical facility investments. The company's portfolio consists of real estate investments in independent living facilities, assisted living facilities, entrance-fee communities, senior living campuses, nursing facilities, hospitals and medical office buildings. The company's investments are structured as acquisitions of properties through purchase-leaseback transactions, acquisitions of properties from other real estate investors, loans or operations.

NCR Corporation

NCR is a software- and services-led enterprise provider in the financial, retail, hospitality and telecommunications and technology industries. The company is an enterprise provider selling a portfolio of digital first software, services, hardware and payments. The company's segments include: Banking, which includes automated teller machines and payment processing hardware and software; Retail, which provides solutions that primarily include retail-oriented technologies, such as point of sale (POS) terminals and POS software; Hospitality, which provides solutions that include POS hardware and software solutions; and Other, which includes telecommunications and technology solutions.

Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.

Omega Healthcare Investors is a real estate investment trust. The company has one reportable segment consisting of investments in healthcare-related real estate properties located in the United States and the United Kingdom. The company's main business is to provide financing and capital to the long-term healthcare industry with a particular focus on skilled nursing facilities, and assisted living facilities, and to a lesser extent, independent living facilities, and rehabilitation and acute care facilities and medical office buildings. The company's main portfolio consists of long-term leases and mortgage agreements.

Sabra Health Care REIT Inc.

Sabra Health Care REIT operates as a real estate investment trust that, via its subsidiaries, owns and invests in real estate serving the healthcare industry. The company's business consists of acquiring, financing and owning real estate property to be leased to third party tenants in the healthcare sector. The company has healthcare investments that provide services including skilled nursing/transitional care, assisted and independent living, mental health and acute care. The company's investment portfolio consists of real estate properties held for investment, investment in a direct financing lease, investments in loans receivable, preferred equity investments and investment in an unconsolidated joint venture.

SJW Group

SJW is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, San Jose Water Company, the company is a public utility in the business of providing water service in the metropolitan San Jose, CA area. SJWTX, Inc., a subsidiary of the company, is doing business as Canyon Lake Water Service Company, which is a public utility in the business of providing water service in southern region of the Texas Hill Country in Blanco, Comal, Hays and Travis counties. SJW Land Company, another subsidiary of the company, owns undeveloped land and operates commercial buildings in Tennessee. San Jose Water Company also provides non-tariffed services including water system operations, maintenance agreements and antenna site leases.

Universal Health Realty Income Trust

Universal Health Realty Income Trust is real estate investment trust. The company invests in health care and human service related facilities including acute care hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, sub-acute facilities, medical office buildings, free-standing emergency departments and childcare centers.

Ventas Inc.

Ventas is a real estate investment trust with a portfolio of seniors housing, research and innovation, and healthcare properties located throughout the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. The company has three segments: triple-net leased properties, which invests in and owns seniors housing and healthcare properties and leases those properties to healthcare operating companies under triple-net or absolute-net leases; senior living operations, which invests in seniors housing communities and engages independent operators to manage those communities; and office operations, which acquires, owns, develops, leases and manages medical office buildings and research and innovation centers.

Welltower Inc.

Welltower is a real estate investment trust. The company's segments are: Seniors Housing Operating, which includes seniors apartments, independent living and independent supportive living, continuing care retirement communities, Alzheimer's/dementia care, and care homes with or without nursing; Triple-net, which includes independent living and independent supportive living, continuing care retirement communities, Alzheimer's/dementia care and care homes with or without nursing, as well as long-term/post-acute care; and Outpatient Medical, which consists of outpatient medical buildings including physician offices, ambulatory surgery centers, diagnostic facilities, outpatient services and/or labs.

York Water Co.

York Water is an investor-owned water utility that impounds, purifies and distributes water. The company also owns and operates wastewater collection systems and wastewater treatment systems. The company operates within its franchised territory in Pennsylvania. Water service is supplied through the company's own distribution system. The company obtains the bulk of its water supply from both the South Branch and East Branch of the Codorus Creek. The company supplements its reservoirs with a pipeline from the Susquehanna River to Lake Redman which provides access to an additional supply of untreated water. The company also owns wells to supply water to its customers in Carroll Valley Borough and Cumberland Township, Adams County.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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