Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.20 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

EM Equities At New Highs Despite Some Caution Signs

We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips.

· Global Equities Remain Bullish. A weaker US dollar (DXY) has paved the way for new highs in a number of non-US global indexes, including for emerging markets (EEM-US) and developed international (VEA-US). As we like to say, new highs are not a sell signal. We believe that as long as the DXY is below 96, it will be bullish for global risk sentiment and we believe EM/non-US outperformance is likely to continue... see charts below.

· Caution Signs: Global Cyclicals vs. Staples Ratio & Negative Breadth Divergences. While it is not enough to alter our bullish outlook, we are beginning to see some reasons for caution. The MSCI ACWI Consumer Discretionary vs. Staples ratio has been in a steep uptrend off of the March lows, but now this uptrend is being violated. This was inevitable considering the unsustainably steep uptrend; a new trend of lower highs in this ratio would likely be problematic for global equities. Additionally, we are seeing negative breadth divergences in the advance/decline lines for global indexes such as MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EM. The longer this continues the more likely we are to see a pullback... see page 2.

· Actionable Themes: Consumer Staples & Health Care. This week we are focusing on Consumer Staples and Health Care, two Sectors that have been less-loved over the past several months... see page 3 and pages 5-10.

· Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary & Additional One-Off Ideas. The Consumer Discretionary Sector continues to offer many attractive opportunities. We also highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Technology, Financials, Real Estate, Communications, and Utilities. One of these actionable ideas that is breaking out and worth buying at current levels is SoftBank (9984-JP)
Underlyings
Adecoagro S.A.

Ameriprise Financial Inc.

Ameriprise Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of products and services to individual and institutional clients. The company's segments are: Advice and Wealth Management, which provides financial planning and advice, as well as brokerage services, to retail clients through its advisors; Asset Management, which provides investment management, advice and products to clients through the Columbia Threadneedle Investments? brand; Annuities, which provides variable and fixed annuity products to clients; and Protection, which provides products to address the protection and risk management needs of the company's retail clients including life, disability income insurance.

Asian Paints Ltd.

Asian Paints is engaged in manufacturing of a range of decorative paints, varnishes, enamels, and black & synthetic resins. Co., through its subsidiaries, also manufactures specialty industrial chemicals and vinyl pyridine latex products which are used in the manufacture of rubber tires.

Carlsberg A/S Class B

Carlsberg is engaged in the production and sale of beer and other beverages. Co.'s brewing operations are concentrated in Northern and Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia, while markets outside these regions are serviced through exports and production under license. Co.'s other beverages include soft drinks, water and cider. In addition to beverage activities, Co. is also engaged in real estate.

Central Pacific Financial Corp.

Central Pacific Financial is a bank holding company. Through its bank and its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of banking services and products to businesses, personnel and individuals. The company's business activities are focused primarily in Hawaii. The company provides its customers with a range of loan products, including residential mortgage loans, commercial and consumer loans and lines of credit, commercial real estate loans and construction loans. Additionally, the company provides wealth management products and services, such as non-deposit investment products, annuities, insurance, investment management, asset custody and general consultation and planning services.

Chibougamau Independent Mines Inc

China Mengniu Dairy Co. Ltd.

China Mengniu Dairy is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of dairy products including liquid milk products (such as ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk, milk beverages and yogurt), ice cream, milk formula and other products (such as cheese) in China. Co.'s core brand is MENGNIU. Co.'s segments include liquid milk products, which manufactures and distributes UHT milk, milk beverages and yogurt; ice cream products, which manufactures and distributes ice cream; milk powder, which manufactures and distributes milk powder; and other products, which includes Co.'s cheese, plant-based nutrition product and trading business.

Cosmo Pharmaceuticals NV

Cosmo Pharmaceuticals N.V. is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company develops therapies for gastrointestinal disorders. The Company's clinical development pipeline specifically addresses treatments for inflammatory bowel diseases, colorectal cancer diagnosis and colonoscopy. It has developed a medical device for polyp excision and is developing a product for the detection of colon cancer. Its pipeline includes Lialda/Mezavant/Mesavancol, which is indicated for mild to moderate ulcerative colitis; Uceris/Cortiment, which is indicated for mild to moderate ulcerative colitis; Zacol NMX, which is indicated for intestinal disorders; Rifamycin SV MMX, which is indicated for Travelers' Diarrhea and uncomplicated diverticulitis, among others; CB-17-01, which is indicated for chromoendoscopy for colorectal cancer prevention in surveillance patients; CB-17-04, which is a sub mucosal injectable composition, and CB-01-12, which is an antibody anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha drug.

Five Below Inc.

Five Below is a retailer providing a range of merchandise targeted at the tween and teen demographic. The company provides an assortment of products, all priced at $5 and below, including select brands and licensed merchandise across eight worlds: Style, Room, Sports, Tech, Create, Party, Candy and Now. The company operates in states that include Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, West Virginia, North Carolina, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Maine, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Minnesota, California and Arkansas.

Ipsen SA

Ipsen is global biotechnology specialty care company. Co. engages in research, development, manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical products for human healthcare. Co.'s product portfolio includes pharmaceutical products marketed around the world to specialists working in its targeted therapeutic areas (oncology, endocrinology, neurology and haematology). These products are specialist care drugs. Co. also markets products in other therapeutic areas including gastroenterology, cardiovascular and cognitive disorders. These products are primary care drugs. Co.'s brand names include Decapeptyl®, Somatuline®, Dysport®, Nutropin Aq®, Smecta®, Forlax®, Nisis®,Adrovance®, Exforge® and Adenuric®.

Keywords Studios plc

Keywords Studios is a technical services provider to the video games industry. Co.'s segments include: Localization Services, which relate to translation and cultural adaptation of in-game text and audio scripts; Localization Testing, which includes testing of linguistic correctness and cultural acceptability of computer games; Audio/Voiceover Services, which relate to audio production process for computer games; Functional Testing, which relates to quality assurance services provided to game producers; Art Creation Services, which relate to the production of graphical art assets for inclusion in the video game; and Customer Support, which relates to the live operations support services.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize is an international group of supermarket and foodservice operators based in Europe and the U.S. Co. operates supermarkets and convenience stores. In addition, Co. provides online food retailing services. Co. also finances, develops and manages store sites and shopping centers. Ahold Europe comprises Albert Heijn in the Netherlands and Belgium; Etos, Gall & Gall, and albert.nl in the Netherlands; and Albert / Hypernova in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Ahold USA is organized into four retail divisions: Giant Carlisle, Giant Landover, Stop & Shop New England, and Stop & Shop New York Metro. The Peapod online business is also part of Ahold USA.

Koninklijke Philips N.V.

Koninklijke Philips Electronics is active in the markets of healthcare, consumer lifestyle and lighting. Co.'s activities can be divided into three segments: Healthcare (Co. provides Imaging Systems, Patient Care and Clinical Informatics, Home Healthcare Solutions and Customer Services), Consumer Lifestyle (Co.'s products are divided into the following: Health and Wellness; Domestic Appliances; and Lifestyle Entertainment), Lighting (Co. provides lighting solutions for homes, shops, offices, schools, hotels, factories and hospitals; Co. also offers solutions for roads (street lighting and car lights) and for public spaces, residential areas and sports arenas).

L'Oreal SA

L'Oreal acts as a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. plays a strategic coordination role and scientific, industrial and marketing coordination role on a global basis. Co. develops, manufactures and commercializes products for Skin care, Hair care, Make-up, Perfumes, Toiletries and deodorants, and Oral cosmetics. Co. has three branches: Cosmetics, Body shop and Dermatology. Co.'s principal activities comprise four divisions: Professional Products, Consumer Products, L'Oreal Luxe and Active Cosmetics. The Body Shop branch offers various cosmetics and toiletry products. The Dermatology branch offers topical dermatology prescription, and corrective and aesthetic dermatology.

Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi S.A.

Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi is engaged in the sale of its own pharmaceutical products and the distribution of other products for which it holds licenses granted by other laboratories for specific periods, in accordance with the terms and conditions contained in the agreements entered into with said laboratories.

Lion Corporation

Lion is engaged in the manufacture and sale of health care and household products, and chemicals. Consumer Products segment manufactures and sells domestic commodities, over-the-counter drugs and functional food products in Japan. Industrial Products segment manufactures and sells chemical raw materials, industrial products and other items in Japan and overseas. Overseas segment manufactures and sells commodities and chemical raw materials in overseas. In addition, Co. is engaged in the transportation and storage of merchandise and finished products; the design, construction, and maintenance of storage facilities; the real estate management; and the provision of human resources services.

Royal Unibrew A/S

Royal Unibrew is a holding company based in Denmark. Co. is engaged in the production, marketing, sale and distribution of beverages. Co.'s main focus is on branded products, such as beer, malt, and soft drinks, including carbonated soft drinks, mineral water and fruit juices. Co.'s portfolio comprises both its own international brands, such as Royal, Ceres, Faxe, and national brands, such as Lomza in Poland, Lacplesa Alus in Latvia. Co. also offers license-based brands, such Heineken and the Pepsi Group's products, which are distributed in Denmark on the basis of license agreements. Co. is primarily active in Western and Eastern Europe and in the international malt drinks markets. .

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited

Sino Biopharmaceutical is an investment holding company and an integrated pharmaceutical enterprise. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the research and development, production and sale of a range of Chinese medicines and chemical medicines. Co.'s segments include: the Chinese medicines and chemical medicines, which comprises the manufacture, sale and distribution of Chinese medicine products and western medicine products; the investment, which is engaged in long term investments; and the others, which comprises of Co.'s research and development sector that provides services to third parties related healthcare and hospital business.

Wilmar International Limited

Wilmar International is an investment holding company. Co.'s segments include: merchandising and processing, which include palm and laurics, engaged in merchandising and processing of palm oil and laurics related products and oilseeds and grains, engaged in merchandising and processing of a range of edible oils, oilseeds and grains; consumer products engaged in packaging and sales of consumer pack edible oils, rice, flour and grains; plantation and palm oil mills, engaged in oil palm cultivation and milling; sugar, which includes milling engaged in milling of sugarcane; and others engaged in manufacturing and distribution of fertilizer products and ship-chartering services.

Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. Class A

Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is a China-based company principally engaged in the research, development, production and sale of bio-pharmaceutical products. The Company's main products include Dermatophagoides Farinae Drops and Dermatophagoides Farinae Skin Prick Diagnostic Kits. The Company's products are primarily used for the treatment of allergic rhinitis caused by dust mite allergy, the desensitization of allergic asthma and the in-vivo diagnosis of dust mite drops. The Company distributes its products in domestic market.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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