Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.93 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Risk-On Rotations vs. Weaker Seasonality

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish and is in an uptrend, though continues to be extended in the short-term as it hovers near potential resistance at the megaphone pattern. This leaves markets vulnerable heading into the seasonally weaker period that comes with the “Sell in May and go away” adage. Still, as we have said before, these alone are not reasons to be bearish and we believe pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities. We are constructive as long as the S&P 500 is above major 4000-4030 support.
Risk-On Rotations. Bullish price bases are building and we are getting bullish price and RS inflections in many risk-on areas of the market, including biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This is bullish for the broad market and these types of rotations are exactly what will keep this bull market alive -- add exposure... see chart below and page 2.
Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Cyclical Sectors continue to lead while defensives lag. We are seeing meaningful RS deterioration for cap- and equal-weighted Consumer Staples; decisive new RS lows would warrant a downgrade to underweight..
Underlyings
Adient plc

Allianz SE

Allianz is engaged in the provision of a range of insurance and asset management products and services. Co. has three business segments: Property-Casualty, which provides insurance products to both private and corporate customers, including motor liability and own damage, accident, general liability, fire and property, legal expense, credit and travel insurance; Life/Health, which provides life and health insurance products including annuities, endowment and term insurance, unit-linked and investment-oriented products and private health and supplemental health and long-term care insurance; and Asset Management, which provides institutional and retail asset management products and services.

BorgWarner Inc.

BorgWarner is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global product provider in technology solutions for combustion, hybrid and electric vehicles. The company manufactures and sells these products worldwide, primarily to original equipment manufacturers of light vehicles (passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, vans and light trucks). The company's segments are: Engine, which provides turbochargers, eBoosters, timing systems, emissions systems, thermal systems, gasoline ignition technology, cabin heaters, battery heaters and battery charging; and Drivetrain, which provides rotating electrical components, power electronics, clutching systems, control modules and all-wheel drive systems.

Canada Goose Holdings Inc.

Canada Goose is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. designs, manufactures, and sells outdoor apparel for men, women, youth, children, and babies in Canada, the United States, and internationally. Co.'s apparel collections include various styles of parkas, jackets, shells, vests, and accessories for fall, winter, and spring seasons. Co. sells its products through online retailers and distributors; and its e-commerce sites and retail stores.

Columbia Sportswear Company

Columbia Sportswear is engaged in designing, sourcing, marketing, and distributing outdoor, active and everyday lifestyle apparel, footwear, accessories, and equipment products. The company's brands and products include: Columbia?, which is known for outdoor apparel, footwear, accessories and equipment products designed with function suited for all seasons, activities and locations; SOREL?, which provides footwear and accessories primarily to women, as well as to men and youth consumers; Mountain Hard Wear?, which provides apparel, accessories and equipment designed to meet the needs of climbing and climbers' everyday lifestyle; and prAna?, which focuses on clothing.

Delta Apparel Co.

Delta Apparel is an international apparel company. The company has two segments: Delta Group, which is comprised of its business units focused on activewear styles including its Delta Activewear (encompassing its Delta Catalog business and FunTees private label business), Soffe, and DTG2Go business units, and markets, distributes and manufactures knit apparel under the brands of Soffe?, Delta Platinum, Delta Pro Weight? and Delta Magnum Weight? for sale to various audiences; and Salt Life Group, which is comprised of its lifestyle brands focused on apparel garments, headwear and related accessories to meet consumer preferences and fashion trends, and includes its Salt Life and Coast business units.

Eaton Corp. Plc

G-III Apparel Group Ltd.

G-III Apparel Group designs, sources and markets a range of apparel, including outerwear, dresses, sportswear, swimwear, women's suits and women's performance wear, women's handbags, footwear, small leather goods, cold weather accessories and luggage. The company has two segments: wholesale operations, which includes sales of products under brands licensed by the company from third parties and sales of products under its own brands and private label brands, and sales related to the Vilebrequin business; and retail operations, which consists of the company's Wilsons Leather, G.H. Bass and DKNY stores operated as outlet stores, and a limited number of Calvin Klein Performance and Karl Lagerfeld Paris stores.

Gildan Activewear Inc.

Gildan Activewear is engaged in the manufacturing and selling of activewear, socks and underwear. Co. sells activewear products to screenprint markets in North America, Europe and other international markets. Co. is the supplier of activewear for the screenprint channel in the United States, Canada, Europe and Mexico. Co. sells socks and underwear, in addition to its activewear products, to mass market and regional retailers in North America.

Hanesbrands Inc.

Hanesbrands is a marketer of basic innerwear and activewear apparel in the Americas, Europe, Australia and Asia/Pacific under some apparel brands, including Hanes, Champion, Bonds, DIM, Maidenform, Bali, Playtex, Lovable, Bras N Things, Nur Die/Nur Der, Alternative, L'eggs, JMS/Just My Size, Wonderbra, and Gear for Sports. The company's segments are: Innerwear, which includes apparel products, such as men's underwear, women's panties, children's underwear, socks and intimate apparel; Activewear, which includes T-shirts, fleece, performance apparel, sport shirts and thermals; and International, which includes innerwear, activewear, hosiery and home goods products, sold outside of the United States.

Johnson Controls International plc

Lear Corporation

Lear is a supplier to the automotive industry. The company supplies seating, electrical distribution systems and electronic modules, as well as related sub-systems, components and software, to automotive manufacturers. The company has two segments: Seating, which consists of the design, development, engineering, just-in-time assembly and delivery of seat systems, and the design, development, engineering and manufacture of seat components; and E-Systems, which consists of the design, development, engineering and manufacture of electrical distribution systems, and electronic control modules, electrification products, connectivity products and software solutions for the cloud, vehicles and mobile devices.

Lululemon Athletica Inc

lululemon athletica is a designer, distributor, and retailer of athletic apparel. Co.'s athletic apparel is marketed under the lululemon and ivivva brand names. Co. provides a line of apparel and accessories for women, men and female youth. Co.'s apparel assortment includes items such as pants, shorts, tops, and jackets designed for healthy lifestyle and athletic activities such as yoga, running, training, other sweaty pursuits, and athletic wear for female youth. Co. also provides fitness-related accessories. Co. primarily conducts its business through two channels: company-operated stores and direct to consumer. As of Jan 28 2018, Co. operated 404 stores.

LVMH MOET HENNESSY

Magna International Inc.

Magna is a global automotive supplier whose product capabilities include producing body, chassis, exterior, seating, powertrain, electronic, vision, closure and roof systems and modules, as well as vehicle engineering and contract manufacturing. Co.'s operations are segmented on a geographic basis. Co.'s segments consist of North America, Europe, Asia and Rest of World.

Movado Group Inc.

Movado Group designs, sources, markets and distributes watches. The company's portfolio of watch brands comprised of owned brands MOVADO?, MVMT?, OLIVIA BURTON?, EBEL? and CONCORD? as well as licensed brands COACH?, TOMMY HILFIGER?, HUGO BOSS?, LACOSTE?, SCUDERIA FERRARI?, REBECCA MINKOFF? and URI MINKOFF?. The company conducts its business primarily in two operating segments: Watch and Accessory Brands, which includes the designing, manufacturing and distribution of watches of quality owned brands and licensed brands; and Company Stores, which includes retail outlet locations in the U.S. and Canada. The company divides its business into two primary geographic locations: U.S. and International.

NetApp Inc.

NetApp is the data authority for the hybrid cloud. The company's product, services and solutions portfolio include: cloud data services, which include the NetApp Data Fabric, which manages, secures, and protects the data of its customers from on-premises to public to hybrid cloud; cloud infrastructure, which helps customers build cloud-architected data centers; storage systems and software, which enables customers to modernize their IT architectures with cloud-connected flash to free the resources necessary; and support services, which enable a portfolio of technical services including independent support services, support account managers, residency services, and managed services.

Oxford Industries Inc.

Oxford Industries is an apparel company that designs, sources, markets and distributes products bearing the trademarks of its Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer and Southern Tide lifestyle brands, other owned brands and licensed brands as well as private label apparel products. The company's business is primarily operated through its Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, Lanier Apparel and Southern Tide operating groups. The company distributes its products through its direct to consumer channels, consisting of its Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer retail stores and its e-commerce sites for Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer and Southern Tide, and through its wholesale distribution channels.

PVH Corp.

PVH is a branded apparel company. The company designs and markets branded dress shirts, neckwear, sportswear, jeanswear, performance apparel, intimate apparel, underwear, swimwear, swim products, handbags, accessories, footwear and other related products. The company also licenses the use of its trademarks to third parties and joint ventures. The company's businesses include: Tommy Hilfiger, which consists of the Tommy Hilfiger North America and Tommy Hilfiger International segments; Calvin Klein, which consists of the Calvin Klein North America and Calvin Klein International segments; and Heritage Brands, which consists of the Heritage Brands Wholesale and Heritage Brands Retail segments.

Ralph Lauren Corporation Class A

Ralph Lauren designs, markets, and distributes lifestyle products, including apparel, accessories, home furnishings, and other licensed product categories. The company's brand names include Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Polo Ralph Lauren, Double RL, Lauren Ralph Lauren, Polo Ralph Lauren Children, Chaps, and Club Monaco, among others. The company sells directly to customers via its retail stores, concession-based shop-within-shops, and through its own digital commerce sites; while its international licensing partners operated Ralph Lauren stores, Ralph Lauren concession shops, and Club Monaco stores and shops. The company has three segments: North America ; Europe; and Asia.

Seagate Technology PLC

Tapestry Inc.

Tapestry is a lifestyle company. The company's primary product offerings, manufactured by third-party suppliers, include women's and men's bags, small leather goods, footwear, ready-to-wear including outerwear, watches, weekend and travel accessories, scarves, eyewear, fragrance, jewelry and other lifestyle products. The company has three reportable segments: Coach, which includes sales of Coach brand products to customers through Coach operated stores; Kate Spade, which includes sales primarily of Kate Spade New York brand products to customers through Kate Spade operated stores; and Stuart Weitzman, which includes sales of Stuart Weitzman brand products primarily through Stuart Weitzman operated stores.

Under Armour Inc. Class A

Under Armour is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The company provides HEATGEAR?, which is designed to be worn in warm to hot temperatures under equipment or as a single layer; and COLDGEAR?, which is designed to wick moisture from the body while circulating body heat from hot spots to help maintain core body temperature. The company's footwear products include running, basketball, cleated sports, slides, training, and outdoor. The company provides digital fitness subscriptions, along with digital advertising through its MapMyFitness, MyFitnessPal and Endomondo applications.

V.F. Corporation

VF is an apparel and footwear company. The company designs, produces, procures, markets and distributes a variety of lifestyle products, including outerwear, footwear, occupational and performance apparel, jeanswear, backpacks and luggage for consumers of all ages. Products are marketed primarily under the company-owned brand names. The company's segment comprised of: Outdoor, which includes performance-based and outdoor apparel, footwear and equipment; Active, which includes active apparel, footwear and accessories; Work, which consists of work and work-inspired lifestyle apparel and footwear and occupational apparel; and Jeans, which markets denim and related casual apparel products.

Western Digital Corporation

Western Digital is a developer, manufacturer, and provider of data storage devices and solutions. The company's portfolio of technology and products address the following markets: Client Devices, which consist of hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid state drives (SSDs) for computing devices, flash-based embedded storage products, and flash-based memory wafers and components; Data Center Devices and Solutions, which consist of enterprise HDDs and enterprise SSDs, data center software and system solutions; and Client Solutions, which consist of HDDs and SSDs embedded into external storage products and removable flash-based products, such as cards, universal serial bus flash drives and wireless drives.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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