Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 232.00 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Europe & the UK remain in focus

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. As a result of these and several other observations highlighted below, our outlook on global equities is positive.

• Europe & the UK. As has been the case over the last several weeks, a major focus of ours within global equities (ex-U.S.) has been on attractive developments in Europe and the UK. Today we highlight additional index improvements for the UK, Norway, Denmark, France, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, and Spain... see pages 2-3.

• Actionable Sector: Financials. The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today's report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int'l Financial Sector... see page 3 for an overview and pages 6-13 for actionable stocks.

• China consolidating; Broad EM bottoming. Another major focus of ours has been on China -- remain overweight. China's Shanghai Composite has cooled off recently as the market works off some of the overbought excess... see page 5.

• Japan remains a notable exception. Underperformance has continued in Japan and major indexes (Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, JASDAQ) remain below their respective 200-day moving averages. RS continues to trend lower -- remain underweight as long as this continues.
Underlyings
Admiral Group plc

Admiral Group provides motor and household insurance. Co. has four reportable segments: U.K. Insurance, which consists of the underwriting of car insurance, van insurance, household insurance and other products that supplement these insurance policies; International Car Insurance, which consists of the underwriting of car insurance and additional products outside of the U.K., specifically covering Co.'s operations in Spain, Italy, France and the U.S.; Price Comparison, which relates Co.'s price comparison businesses, Confused.com in the U.K., Rastreator in Spain, LeLynx in France and Compare.com in the U.S.; and Other, which includes Co.'s commercial van insurance broker, Gladiator.

Allianz SE

Allianz is engaged in the provision of a range of insurance and asset management products and services. Co. has three business segments: Property-Casualty, which provides insurance products to both private and corporate customers, including motor liability and own damage, accident, general liability, fire and property, legal expense, credit and travel insurance; Life/Health, which provides life and health insurance products including annuities, endowment and term insurance, unit-linked and investment-oriented products and private health and supplemental health and long-term care insurance; and Asset Management, which provides institutional and retail asset management products and services.

Baloise-Holding AG

Baloise is a holding company, engaged in providing insurance and pension solutions. Co.'s segments include: non-Life, which provides accident and health insurance as well as products relating to liability, motor, property and marine insurance; life, which provides a range of endowment policies, term insurance, investment-linked products and private placement life insurance; banking, which comprises Baloise Bank SoBa, and Deutscher Ring Bausparkasse; and other, which includes equity investment companies, real-estate firms and financing companies.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is an international financial group, engaged primarily on providing banking services and consumer finance to private individuals and businesses in Spain and Portugal; providing real estate activity in Spain; providing services to international companies and investment banking, capital markets and treasury management services to clients; and providing the banking, insurance and pension businesses in Mexico and the U.S., as well as in South America.

Banco Santander S.A.

Banco Santander is a holding company, providing a range of financial products. Co.'s products and services include: retail banking business that covers all customer banking businesses; wholesale banking business; as well as asset management and insurance business. Co.'s principal operations are in Spain, the U.K., Portugal, Germany, Italy and Latin America. As of Dec 31 2014, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro1,266,296,000,000 and total customer deposits amounted to Euro647,627,000,000.

Cembra Money Bank AG

Cembra Money Bank provides financial services in Switzerland. Its product range includes consumer loans, auto leases and loans, credit cards and insurances sold with these products as well as deposit and savings products. As of Jan. 1, 2017, Co. renders its services through its headquarters in Zurich as well as through 18 branches in Switerland.

Chugoku Bank Limited

The Chugoku Bank is a regional bank engaged in commercial banking services with total assets of Y8,284,008 million as of Mar 31 207. Co. maintains 153 branches and 7 sub-branches mainly in the Chugoku Region and one branch in Hong Kong. Co.'s principal services include various type of deposits; consumer and commercial loans; interest bearing government bonds, portfolio management, venture capital, and custody of securities; foreign exchange; international trading assistance; electric banking; and other services including ATM and Internet banking. In addition, Co., through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the provision of credit card, leasing, and insurance and asset management services.

Eurazeo SA

Eurazeo is a listed investment company in Europe. Co. invests in French or other European companies in which it can exercise influence. Co. divides its operaion in five divisions: Holding company, Eurazeo Capital, Eurazeo PME, Eurazeo Croissance, and Eurazeo Patrimoine. Holding company focuses on investment in non-consolidated fund business; Eurazeo Capital invests in companies valued over Euro150,000,000 to Euro200,000,000; Eurazeo PME invests in enterprises valued at less than Euro150,000,000 to Euro200,000,000; Eurazeo Croissance targets companies with high growth potential in promising markets; and Eurazeo Patrimoine groups Co.'s real estate asset management and investment activities.

EXOR N.V.

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates through the following segments: Imerys, which consists of the Imerys group that operates in four business lines of energy solutions and specialties, filtration and performance additives, ceramic materials, and high resistance minerals; and Financial Pillar, which includes, on the one hand, under investment activities, the companies Sienna Capital, Ergon Capital Partners (ECP), ECP II, ECP III, PAI Europe III, Sagard, Sagard II and Sagard III, Kartesia and Merieux Participations I and II and, on the other hand, under consolidated operating activities, the operating subsidiaries of ECP III.

HDFC Bank Limited

HDFC Bank is a commercial banking group based in India. Co. is engaged in providing banking and financial services. Co.'s operations are organized along four segments: Treasury, which includes its investment operations; Retail Banking, which serves retail customers with deposit products, loans and other services through a branch network and other delivery channels; Wholesale Banking, which provides loans, non-fund facilities and transaction services to corporations, public sector units, government bodies, and medium scale enterprises; and Other Banking Business, which includes para banking activities such as credit cards and debit cards.

Hellenic Exchanges SA

The Hellenic Exchanges is engaged in the following business sectors: trading, clearing, settlement, data feed, IT, exchange services, depository services, clearinghouse services, and other.

ING Groep NV

ING Groep is a global financial institution based in the Netherlands. Co. is engaged in offering a wide range of retail and wholesale banking services to customers in over 40 countries across Europe, the Americas, Asia and Australia. In addition to the basic banking services of lending, payments and cash management and treasury, Co. provides tailored banking solutions in areas including corporate finance, commercial finance (factoring), equity markets and debt capital markets to help clients achieve their business goals. Co.'s operations are organized along five segments: Retail Netherlands; RetailBelgium: Retail Germany: Retail Other; and Wholesale Banking.

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.

Intesa Sanpaolo is a commercial bank. Co. is engaged in lending and deposit collection operations in Italy and associated financial services, serving Households, Personal, Small Business, Private and Small and Medium Enterprise customers. Co. provides medium-term credit, leasing, factoring and agribusiness (Mediocredito Italiano), consumer credit (Intesa Sanpaolo Personal Finance), management of electronic payments (Setefi), and trust services (Sirefid). Co. has approximately 4,300 branches, including Retail and Business branches, distributed broadly throughout Italy. At Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets of Euro646.43 billion.

Investor AB Class B

Investor AB is an industrial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. invests in companies and industries. Co.'s holdings are divided into two business areas: Core Investments and Financial Investments. Core Investments consists of listed holdings, in which Co. is a major owner, and its wholly-owned subsidiaries. Financial Investments consists of Co.'s investments in EQT and Investor Growth Capital, its partner-owned investments and other investments and activities.

Julius Baer Gruppe AG

Julius Baer is engaged in private banking activities primarily in Switzerland, Europe, Asia and South America. Co. focuses in private banking, which includes certain internal supporting functions which serve entirely the core business activities.

KBC Group N.V.

KBC Group is a bank-insurance group engaged in providing products and services mainly to retail, private banking, SME and mid-cap clients. Co. focuses on its primary markets of Belgium, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria. Co. is also present in Ireland and, to a limited extent, in several other countries to support corporate clients from its primary markets. Co.'s main brands are KBC and CBC in Belgium, CSOB in Czech Republic and Slovakia, K&H in Hungary, CIBANK and DZI Insurance in Bulgaria, and KBC Bank Ireland in Ireland. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had 1,601 bank branches. In addition, Co. had total assets of Euro245.17 billion.

Lloyds Banking Group plc

Lloyds Banking Group is a financial services provider. Co.'s main business activities are retail and commercial banking, general insurance and long-term savings. Co.'s Lending products are mortgages, credit cards, personal and business loans; Deposit products include taking Current accounts and savings accounts; Insurance products are home insurance, motor insurance and protection; Commercial financing products includes term lending, debt capital markets and private equity; and Risk management products includes interest rate hedging, currency and liquidity. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. had total assets of £812.1 million and total deposits of £448.0 million.

Manulife Financial Corporation

Manulife Financial is a provider of financial protection and wealth management products and services, including individual life insurance, group life and health insurance, long-term care insurance, pension products, annuities and mutual funds to individual and group customers in Asia, Canada and the United States. Co. also provides investment management services with respect to Co.'s general fund assets, segregated fund assets, mutual funds, and to institutional customers. Co. also offers reinsurance services, specializing in property and aviation catastrophe risk reinsurance products.

Mega Financial Holding Co. Ltd.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a Taiwan-based financial holding company principally engaged in the investment and management of its subsidiaries. The Company mainly operates through four business segments. The Banking Business segment is mainly engaged in the commercial banking, consumer banking, wealth management, investment banking businesses and the provision of other services. The Securities Business segment is mainly engaged in the brokerage, underwriting and proprietary trading businesses. The Bill Banking segment is mainly engaged in the brokerage, dealing and underwriting businesses, as well as the guaranteeing of short-term debt instruments. The Insurance Business segment is mainly engaged in the provision of insurance services and insurance agency businesses.

NATIXIS

Natixis is a player in the European banking industry. As the banking partner of large companies in France, Co. also plays an active role in serving financial institutions (banks, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.). Co.'s activities are divided into in three main business lines: Wholesale Banking, Investment Solutions (Asset Management, Private Banking, Insurance, and Private Equity) and Specialized Financial Services. Co. operates in four geographical regions: France; other EU countries; North America (Canada, USA); and other OECD countries. As of Dec. 31 2013 Co.'s total assets totaled Euro510,131,000,000.

NatWest Group Plc

Royal Bank of Scotland Group is a banking and financial services company. Co.'s activities are organized in franchise basis; Personal and Business Banking (PBB) comprising UK PBB and Ulster Bank RoI segment, which serve individuals and small businesses in the U.K. and the Republic of Ireland; Commercial & Private Banking comprising, Commercial Banking and Private Banking segment, which serve commercial, corporate and private banking in the U.K. and Western Europe; RBS International, which serves retail, commercial and financial institution in Jersey, Luxembourg and London; and NatWest Markets, which provides risk management and financing solutions through its trading and sales operations.

OTP Bank Nyrt

OTP Bank is a financial institution based in Hungary. Co. is engaged in retail banking (account management, bankcards and Electronic sevices - OTPdirekt) corporate banking and private banking. In Hungary traditional banking operations are performed by Co. while specialized services, including car leasing, investment funds and insurance are developed and offered by Co.'s subsidiaries. Co. expands its operations throughout the region via its foreign subsidiaries. As of Dec 31 2011, Co. had total assets of HUF10,200,527,000,000 and deposits of HUF6,398,853,000,000.

Pendal Group Limited

Pendal Group is engaged in the provision of investment management services. Co.'s operating segments comprise the investment management business in Australia (BTIM Australia) and outside of Australia (BTIM International). BTIM International comprises the BTIM (UK) Limited group of companies.

Punjab National Bank

Punjab National Bank is a commercial banking group based in India. Co. is engaged in offering its customers personal, social, agricultural, international and corporate banking services. Co. specialized in offering commercial banking, retail banking, SME banking, rural banking, transaction banking, merchant banking, financial inclusion, credit syndication, treasury, internet & mobile banking services. Co. maintains over 6,300 branches and 7,900 ATMs across 764 cities. Co. has a banking subsidiary in the U.K., as well as branches in Hong Kong, Dubai and Kabul. Co. maintains representative offices in Almaty (Kazakhstan), Dubai, Shanghai (China), Oslo (Norway) and Sydney (Australia).

SpareBank 1 BV

Sparebank 1 BV, formerly Sparebank1 Buskerud-Vestfold (the Bank), is a Norway-based regional bank. It is primarily active in Buskerud, Kongsberg, Drammen and Vestfold in Norway. It is engaged in the provision of a range of banking and related products and services to both private clients and small and middle-sized enterprises. Its products and services include financing, payment processing, savings accounts, insurance and real estate services. The Bank is active through branches in Drammen, Kongsberg, Hvittingfoss, Horten, Tonsberg, Sandefjord, Larvik and Stavern. As of December 31, 2011, the Bank had three direct wholly owned subsidiaries, namely EiendomsMegler 1 Buskerud Vestfold AS, Georg Solberg AS and Imingen Holding AS. Additionally, it had one indirect subsidiary, Parkeringsplassen AS, and three associated companies. Sparebank1 BV is a member of the SpareBank1 bank alliance, which comprises 15 independent Norwegian banks.

St. James's Place Plc

St. James's Place provides a range of insurance, investment and other wealth management services through its subsidiaries, which are incorporated in the U.K., Ireland and Asia.

UniCredit S.p.A.

Unicredit is a pan-European commercial banking group based in Italy. Co. is engaged in the provision of in-branch and online corporate and investment banking services, providing customers with access to banks in 14 core markets as well as to an another 18 countries worldwide. Co.'s operations are organized along six business lines: Commercial Banking Italy; CEE Division; CIB; Commercial Banking Germany; Commercial Banking Austria; and Asset Gathering. Co.'s European banking network includes Italy, Germany, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia and Turkey.

UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A.

UnipolSai Assicurazioni is an insurance group based in Italy. Co.'s business segments are non-life insurance sector, which provides insurance cover pursuant to Article 2, paragraph 3 of Legislative Decree 209/05; life insurance sector, which provides insurance cover with payment of capital or an annuity against a life related event, and capitalisation contracts with or without insurance risk; real estate sector, which rents offices, buildings and residential homes that exceed the coverage requirements and also operates in the management of investment property; and other activities sector, which provides products and services in asset management and the financial and agricultural sectors.

WIZ SOLUCOES E CORRETAGEM

Wiz Solucoes e Corretagem de Seguros SA, formerly FPC Par Corretora de Seguros SA, is a Brazil-based company engaged in the insurance brokerage activities. The Company's product portfolio is divided into two areas: products for individuals and corporate products. Within the personal insurance area, it primarily provides life, dental, car and property insurance, among others. The corporate area includes health, dental, life, fleet and equipment, as well as property and casualty insurance, among others. The Company provides also insurance-related consulting services. Furthermore, it cooperates with a number of entities, such as Caixa bank, Caixa Seguros group and Federacao Nacional das Associacoes do Pessoal da Caixa Economica Federal (Fenae).

Zurich Insurance Group Ltd

Zurich Insurance Group is a multi-line insurance company. Co. provides a range of general insurance and life insurance products and services, serving individuals, small businesses, and mid-sized and large companies, including multinational corporations, in more than 170 countries. Co.'s business segments include: General Insurance, which provides property and casualty insurance and services, risk insights; Global Life, which provides protection, savings and investment solutions; and Farmers, which provides management services related to property and casualty insurance.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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