Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Local Tops for 10-Year Yield, DXY, and WTI Crude OilOur outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity. Our most recent and highest conviction "buy the dip" call came last week (1/14/25 Compass) amid all the major indexes testing key supports (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJI, S&P Mid Caps, VXF, Russell 2000, ARKK, and SMH), bullish breadth divergences, and other ongoing risk-on signals. Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all of the aforementioned indexes breaking out from their 1+ month consolidations, and small- and mid-caps are leading the way. The S&P 500 has gapped-up on four of the past five trading days, indicating significant strength. Furthermore, recent concerns that we have had, including rising Treasury yields, U.S. Dollar (DXY), and WTI Crude oil, could very well be turning into tailwinds for U.S. equity indexes, as they all appear to be putting-in local tops. Bottom line: as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish.
Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, U.S. Dollar (DXY), and WTI Crude Oil. Rising yields, DXY, and crude oil prices had been pressuring stocks over the past month, but the good news is all three appear to be putting-in local tops that could easily turn out to be major tops. The 10-year Treasury yield displays a failed breakout at 4.7-4.75% and a 1.5-month uptrend violation, the DXY is violating its 4-month uptrend, and WTI crude oil is staging a false breakout at its 1+ year downtrend. In the past two Compass reports we have discussed our expectations for the DXY and Treasury yields to roll over, and that appears to be happening. We expect all of them (yields, DXY, oil) to continue moving lower in the near-term, which would be very bullish for the broad equity market... see charts below & page 3.
Breakouts and Ongoing Risk-On Signals. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 400 Mid Caps (IJH), Vanguard Extended Market (VXF), Russell 2000 (IWM), ARKK, and Semiconductors (SMH) all display bullish 1+ month breakouts after holding at support last week. These are bullish continuation patterns, and it is not too late to buy. Of course, this comes with the backdrop of a number of ongoing risk-on signals: high yield spreads at 17-year narrows, interest rate volatility (MOVE index) near multi-year lows, Bitcoin remains bullish, underperformance from select defensive Sectors (especially Consumer Staples), and Discretionary vs. Staples ratios (XLY vs. XLP, RSPD vs. RSPS) that remain in uptrends... see charts below and pages
Adtalem Global Education provides educational services. The company's institutions and companies provide an array of programs across medical and healthcare, financial services and business and law. The company's segments include: Medical and Healthcare, which includes Chamberlain University and Medical and Veterinary Schools that provide educational programs in nursing and health professions, respectively; Financial Services, which includes Becker Professional Education that provides education serving the accounting and finance professions; and Business and Law, which includes Adtalem Education of Brazil institution that focuses in business, engineering, healthcare, law, management, medical and technology.
American Public Education is a provider of online and on-campus postsecondary education. The company provides online postsecondary education directed primarily at the needs of the military and public safety communities through American Public University System, Inc., an online university that includes American Military University and American Public University. The company provides on-campus nursing education to students in Ohio through National Education Seminars, Inc., which it refers to as Hondros College of Nursing (HCON). HCON provides nursing education to students in Ohio to serve the needs of the nursing and healthcare communities.
Asbury Automotive Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an automotive retailer. The company's stores provide automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles; parts and service, including vehicle repair and maintenance services, replacement parts and collision repair services; and finance and insurance products, including arranging vehicle financing through third parties and aftermarket products, such as extended service contracts, guaranteed asset protection debt cancellation, prepaid maintenance, and credit life and disability insurance. The company's new vehicle franchise retail network is made up of dealerships operating under locally-branded dealership groups.
AutoNation, through its subsidiaries, is an automotive retailer. The company provides a range of automotive products and services, including new vehicles, used vehicles, parts and service, which includes automotive repair and maintenance services as well as wholesale parts and collision businesses, and automotive finance and insurance products, which include vehicle service and other protection products, and the arranging of financing for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. The company owns and operates new vehicle franchises from stores located in the United States, in main metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region. The company has three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury.
CarMax is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as a retailer of used vehicles. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations, which sells used vehicles, purchases used vehicles from customers and other sources, sells related products and services, and arranges financing options for customers; and CarMax Auto Finance, which consists of finance operation that provides vehicle financing to customer buying retail vehicles from the company The company's products and services include retail merchandising, wholesale auctions, extended protection plans, reconditioning and service, and customer credit.
Flex is a provider of Sketch-to-Scale™ services that designs, engineers, manufactures, and supply chain services and solutions. Co. operates following segments: Communications & Enterprise Compute, which includes its telecom and networking business, server and storage platforms, and security appliance products; Consumer Technologies Group, which includes its consumer-related businesses in connected living and supply chain solutions; Industrial and Emerging Industries, which include energy and metering, semiconductor tools and capital equipment, and industrial automation and kiosks; and High Reliability Solutions, which include its medical, automotive, defense and aerospace businesses.
Group 1 Automotive is an operator in the automotive retail industry. Through its dealerships, the company sells new and used cars and light trucks, arranges related vehicle financing, sells service and insurance contracts, provides automotive maintenance and repair services, and sells vehicle parts. The company sells retail used vehicles directly to its customers at its dealerships or via its internet sites and wholesale used vehicles at auctions. The company sells replacement parts and provides both warranty and non-warranty maintenance and repair services, as well as provides collision repair services at the collision centers that the company operates. The company also sells parts to wholesale customers.
Jabil is a provider of manufacturing services and solutions. The company provides electronics design, production and product management services to companies in various industries and end markets. The company's manufacturing and supply chain management services and solutions include design, planning, fabrication and assembly, delivery and managing the flow of resources and products. The company's segments include: Electronics Manufacturing Services, which utilizes information technology, supply chain design and engineering, technologies centered on primary electronics; and Diversified Manufacturing Services, which provides engineering solutions, with a focus on material sciences, technologies and healthcare.
Laureate Education is engaged in providing higher education programs and services to students through an international network of licensed universities and higher education institutions (institutions). The company's programs are provided through institutions that are campus-based and internet-based, or through electronically distributed educational programs. The company has five reportable segments: Brazil; Mexico; Andean; Rest of World; and Online and Partnerships. The company's Online and Partnerships segment principally consists of Walden University.
Lincoln Educational Services provides post-secondary education to high school graduates and working adults. The company provides programs in automotive technology, skilled trades, which include heating, ventilating and air conditioning, welding and computerized numerical control and electronic systems technology, among other programs; healthcare services, which include nursing, dental assistant, medical administrative assistant, among other programs; hospitality services, which include culinary, therapeutic massage, cosmetology and aesthetics; and information technology, which consists of information technology programs.
Lithia Motors is a providers of personal transportation solutions. The company's segments are Domestic, Import and Luxury. The company's Domestic segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured by Chrysler, General Motors and Ford. The company's Import segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured primarily by Honda, Toyota, Subaru, Nissan and Volkswagen. The company's Luxury segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured primarily by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus. The franchises in each segment also sell used vehicles, parts and automotive services, and automotive finance and insurance products.
Penske Automotive Group is a transportation services company that operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships and distributes commercial vehicles, diesel engines, gas engines, power systems and related parts and services. The company has four segments: Retail Automotive, consisting of its retail automotive dealership operations; Retail Commercial Truck, consisting of its retail commercial truck dealership operations in the United States and Canada; Other, consisting of its commercial vehicle and power systems distribution operations and other non-automotive consolidated operations; and Non-Automotive Investments, consisting of its equity method investments in non-automotive operations.
Career Education's academic institutions provide education to students in a variety of disciplines through online, campus-based and blended learning programs. The company's reporting segments are: Colorado Technical University, which provides industry-relevant degree programs and academic programs in the career-oriented disciplines of business studies, nursing, computer science, engineering, information systems and technology, cybersecurity and healthcare management; and American InterContinental University, which helps personnel get the degree and provides academic programs in the career-oriented disciplines of business studies, information technologies, education and criminal justice.
Sonic Automotive is an automotive retailer in the United States. The company has two reportable segments: the Franchised Dealerships Segment and the EchoPark Segment. The Franchised Dealerships segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles and buy and sell used vehicles, sell replacement parts, perform vehicle maintenance, warranty and repair services, and arrange finance and insurance products. The EchoPark segment is comprised of pre-owned vehicle retail locations that provide customers an opportunity to search the company's nationwide inventory, purchase a pre-owned vehicle, select finance and insurance products and sell their vehicle to the company
Universal Technical Institute is a provider of postsecondary education for students seeking careers as automotive, diesel, collision repair, motorcycle and marine technicians as well as welders and computer numeric control machining technicians. The company provides certificate, diploma or degree programs under the banner of several brands, including Universal Technical Institute, Motorcycle Mechanics Institute and Marine Mechanics Institute and NASCAR Technical Institute. Additionally, the company provides manufacturer specific advanced training (MSAT) programs, including student-paid electives, at its campuses and manufacturer or dealer sponsored training at certain campuses and training centers.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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