Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.95 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher

Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher. Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" considering our expectation for support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) with small- and mid-caps likely to outperform. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for the aforementioned indexes to find support at their 20-day MAs. Ultimately, we will remain bullish as long as the S&P 500 is above 5600-5670, but we do not see the SPX falling below 5850 any time soon.

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Overweight. RS on cap-weighted Consumer Discretionary (XLY) has formed an uptrend off of the August lows, while
Underlyings
Adtalem Global Education Inc.

Adtalem Global Education provides educational services. The company's institutions and companies provide an array of programs across medical and healthcare, financial services and business and law. The company's segments include: Medical and Healthcare, which includes Chamberlain University and Medical and Veterinary Schools that provide educational programs in nursing and health professions, respectively; Financial Services, which includes Becker Professional Education that provides education serving the accounting and finance professions; and Business and Law, which includes Adtalem Education of Brazil institution that focuses in business, engineering, healthcare, law, management, medical and technology.

American Public Education

American Public Education is a provider of online and on-campus postsecondary education. The company provides online postsecondary education directed primarily at the needs of the military and public safety communities through American Public University System, Inc., an online university that includes American Military University and American Public University. The company provides on-campus nursing education to students in Ohio through National Education Seminars, Inc., which it refers to as Hondros College of Nursing (HCON). HCON provides nursing education to students in Ohio to serve the needs of the nursing and healthcare communities.

Carnival Corporation

Choice Hotels International Inc.

Choice Hotels International is a hotel franchisor. The company franchises lodging properties under the following proprietary brand names: Comfort Inn?, Comfort Suites?, Quality?, Clarion?, Clarion Pointe?, Sleep Inn?, Econo Lodge?, Rodeway Inn?, MainStay Suites?, Suburban Extended Stay Hotel?, WoodSpring Suites?, Cambria? Hotels, and Ascend Hotel Collection?. The company's primary segment is the hotel franchising business. The company's domestic franchising operations are conducted through direct franchising relationships while its international franchise operations are conducted through a combination of direct franchising and master franchising relationships.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A

Hyatt Hotels is a hospitality company engaged in the development, ownership, operation, management, franchising, licensing or provision of services to a portfolio of properties, consisting of full service hotels, select service hotels, resorts, and other properties, including spas and fitness studios, timeshare, fractional, and other forms of residential and vacation properties. The company also manages, provides services to, or licenses its trademarks with respect to residential ownership units that are often adjacent to a Hyatt-branded hotel. Additionally, for condominium ownership units, the company provides services and/or manage the rental programs or homeowner associations associated with such units.

Laureate Education Inc. Class A

Laureate Education is engaged in providing higher education programs and services to students through an international network of licensed universities and higher education institutions (institutions). The company's programs are provided through institutions that are campus-based and internet-based, or through electronically distributed educational programs. The company has five reportable segments: Brazil; Mexico; Andean; Rest of World; and Online and Partnerships. The company's Online and Partnerships segment principally consists of Walden University.

Lincoln National Corporation

Lincoln National operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses through its subsidiary companies. The company provides products and services through four segments as follows: Annuities, which provides tax-deferred investment growth and lifetime income opportunities for its clients by providing variable annuities, fixed annuities and indexed variable annuities; Retirement Plan Services, which provides employers with retirement plan products and services, primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace; Life Insurance, which focuses on the creation and protection of wealth for its clients; and Group Protection, which provides group non-medical insurance products.

Marriott International Inc. Class A

Marriott International is a worldwide operator, franchisor, and licensor of hotel, residential and timeshare properties under various brand names at different price and service points. The company has operations in the following reportable business segments: North American Full-Service, which includes the company's Luxury and Premium properties located in United States and Canada; North American Limited-Service, which includes the company's Select properties located in United States and Canada; and Asia Pacific, which includes all properties in the company's Asia Pacific region.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation

Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a vacation company that provides vacation ownership, exchange, rental and resort and property management, along with related businesses, products and services. The company's reportable segments are; Vacation Ownership, which develops, markets, sells, rents and manages vacation ownership and related products under its licensed brands; and Exchange and Third-Party Management, which includes exchange networks and membership programs comprised of exchange, getaways, interval gold and interval platinum, club interval, sales and marketing support for interval international network resorts, and operational support for interval international network resorts.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

Perdoceo Education Corp

Career Education's academic institutions provide education to students in a variety of disciplines through online, campus-based and blended learning programs. The company's reporting segments are: Colorado Technical University, which provides industry-relevant degree programs and academic programs in the career-oriented disciplines of business studies, nursing, computer science, engineering, information systems and technology, cybersecurity and healthcare management; and American InterContinental University, which helps personnel get the degree and provides academic programs in the career-oriented disciplines of business studies, information technologies, education and criminal justice.

ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP

Stride Inc

Universal Technical Institute Inc.

Universal Technical Institute is a provider of postsecondary education for students seeking careers as automotive, diesel, collision repair, motorcycle and marine technicians as well as welders and computer numeric control machining technicians. The company provides certificate, diploma or degree programs under the banner of several brands, including Universal Technical Institute, Motorcycle Mechanics Institute and Marine Mechanics Institute and NASCAR Technical Institute. Additionally, the company provides manufacturer specific advanced training (MSAT) programs, including student-paid electives, at its campuses and manufacturer or dealer sponsored training at certain campuses and training centers.

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc.

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts is a hotel franchisor, licensing its hotel brands to hotel owners around the world. The company operates in the following segments: Hotel franchising, which licenses the company's lodging brands and provides related services to third-party hotel owners and others; and Hotel management, which provides hotel management services for full-service and limited-service hotels as well as several hotels that are owned by the company

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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