Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 233.15 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

A pause in the uptrend

Note: This report is presented in an abbreviated format, as we are in production of our September U.S. Macro Vision book.

In last week's Compass we noted the S&P 500 was near the top end of the uptrend channel and that the index could fall 2.75%-3.25% before we get to uptrend support. Considering the S&P 500 fell roughly 1% last week we believe the recent pause appears to be a normal and healthy pullback within the multi-month uptrend. Despite the potential for additional backing-and-filling toward the 50-day moving average and uptrend support, our expectation is that this uptrend continues, supporting our overall positive outlook.

• Internals remain healthy. The S&P 500's advance/decline line and percentage of stocks above their 200-day and 50-day moving average indicators all continue to hit higher lows which points to healthy breadth. Cap- and equal-weighted discretionary vs. staples ratios also remain in uptrends, pointing to a risk-on environment.

• Cyclicals remain long-term leadership as commodity Sectors lag. Long-term price and RS uptrends remain intact for Technology and Consumer Discretionary - what we want to see continue to confirm the market's advance.

• Primary concerns. Foreign markets (ACWX, EEM) remain in downtrends due in part to a stronger USD. Thus far foreign weakness has capped the upside for U.S. markets as opposed to dragging the U.S. down. With that said, the latter remains a possibility. Another concern is interest rates, which have been quietly on the rise. 3.2-3.3% on the 30-year and 3.1% on the 10-year are important resistance areas we are monitoring.

• In today's report we highlight one attractive Group and three negatively developing Groups. Attractive: CD-05 Retailers, Auto Parts. Negative Developing: CD-23 Casinos & Gaming, Large-Cap, FN-24 and FN-25 Asset Management & Custody Banks, Large-Cap and Mid-Cap... see pages 7-18.
Underlyings
Advance Auto Parts Inc.

Advance Auto Parts is an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (Professional), and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers as well as independently owned operators. The company's stores and branches provide a range selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. Through its integrated operating approach, the company serves its Professional and DIY customers through a variety of channels ranging from brick and mortar store locations to self-service e-commerce sites.

Affiliated Managers Group Inc.

Affiliated Managers Group is a global asset management company with equity investments in boutique investment management firms (Affiliates). The company provides centralized capabilities to its Affiliates, including strategy, marketing and distribution, and product development. Through its Affiliates, the company provides strategies designed to assist institutional, retail and clients worldwide in achieving their investment objectives. The company provides boutique investment management services to retail investors through advisory and sub-advisory services to return-oriented mutual funds, Undertakings for the Collective Investment of Transferable Securities, collective investment trusts and other retail products.

Agilent Technologies Inc.

Agilent Technologies is engaged in life sciences, diagnostics and applied chemical markets. The company's segments are: Life Sciences and Applied Markets Business, which provides instruments and software that enable customers to identify, quantify and analyze the physical and biological properties of substances and products; Diagnostics and Genomics Business, which includes the genomics, nucleic acid contract manufacturing and research and development, pathology, companion diagnostics, reagent partnership and biomolecular analysis businesses; and Agilent CrossLab Business, which spans the entire lab with its consumables and services portfolio to improve customer outcomes.

Ameriprise Financial Inc.

Ameriprise Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of products and services to individual and institutional clients. The company's segments are: Advice and Wealth Management, which provides financial planning and advice, as well as brokerage services, to retail clients through its advisors; Asset Management, which provides investment management, advice and products to clients through the Columbia Threadneedle Investments? brand; Annuities, which provides variable and fixed annuity products to clients; and Protection, which provides products to address the protection and risk management needs of the company's retail clients including life, disability income insurance.

AutoZone Inc.

AutoZone is a retailer and a distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company operates stores in the United States, including Puerto Rico and Saint Thomas, Mexico, and Brazil. Each store carries a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. In addition, the company has a commercial sales program that provides commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products to local, regional and national repair garages, dealers, service stations and public sector accounts. The company also sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software.

BLACKROCK INC.

BlackRock is an investment management firm. The company provides a range of investment and technology services to institutional and retail clients worldwide. Products are provided directly and through intermediaries in a variety of vehicles, including open-end and closed-end mutual funds, iShares? exchange-traded funds, separate accounts, collective investment trusts and other pooled investment vehicles. The company also provides technology services, including the investment and risk management technology platform, Aladdin?, Aladdin Wealth, eFront, Cachematrix and FutureAdvisor, as well as advisory services and solutions to a base of institutional and wealth management clients.

Eaton Vance Corp.

Eaton Vance is engaged in managing investment funds and providing investment management and advisory services to high-net-worth individuals and institutions. Through its investment affiliates, the company manages active equity, income, alternative and blended strategies across a range of investment styles and asset classes, including United States, global and international equities, floating-rate bank loans, municipal bonds, global income, high-yield and investment grade bonds, and mortgage-backed securities, as well as a range of systematic investment strategies, including systematic equity, systematic alternatives and managed options strategies.

Franklin Resources Inc.

Franklin Resources is a holding company that, together with its subsidiaries, operates as Franklin Templeton?. The company is an investment management organization that provides investment management and related services to retail, institutional and investors in jurisdictions worldwide through its investment products. The company's investment products include its sponsored funds, as well as institutional and separate accounts, and sub-advised products. The company's funds include registered and unregistered funds. The company's services include fund administration, sales and distribution, and shareholder servicing. The company also provides sub-advisory services to certain investment products sponsored by other companies.

Genuine Parts Company

Genuine Parts is engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial parts, and business products. The company's reportable business segments are: Automotive, which distributes automotive parts and accessory items and provides inventory, cataloging, marketing, training and other programs to the automotive aftermarket; Industrial, which distributes industrial replacement parts and related supplies such as bearings, mechanical and electrical power transmission products, industrial automation, and hose, among others; and Business Products, which is engaged in the wholesale distribution of a line of office and other business-related products through a customer base of resellers.

Invesco Ltd.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Las Vegas Sands is a developer of destination properties (Integrated Resorts) that feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, restaurants and other amenities. The company owns and operates Integrated Resorts in Asia and the United States. Through its ownership of Sands China Ltd., the company owns and operates properties including The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao. In Singapore, the company owns and operates the Marina Bay Sands. The company's Las Vegas Operating Properties includes The Venetian Resort Las Vegas and the Sands Expo Center.

Legg Mason Inc.

Legg Mason is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an asset management company that provides investment management and related products and services. The company's investment advisory services include discretionary and non-discretionary management of separate investment accounts for institutional and individual investors. The company's investment products include proprietary mutual funds ranging from money market and other liquidity products to fixed income, equity and alternative funds managed in various investment styles. The company also provides other domestic and offshore funds to both retail and institutional investors, privately placed real estate funds, hedge funds, and funds-of-hedge funds.

Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited Sponsored ADR

MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts across the United States and in Macau. The company's segments include: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, which consists of casino resorts such as Bellagio, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, The Mirage, Luxor, New York-New York, Excalibur, and Park MGM; Regional Operations, which consists of casino resorts such as MGM Grand Detroit, Beau Rivage, Gold Strike Tunica, Borgata, MGM National Harbor, MGM Springfield, Empire City, and MGM Northfield Park; and MGM China, which owns and operates casino resorts and the related gaming subconcession and land concessions.

Monro Inc

Monro is engaged principally in providing automotive undercar repair and tire sales and services. The company provides a range of services on passenger cars, light trucks and vans for brakes; mufflers and exhaust systems; and steering, drive train, suspension and wheel alignment. The company also provides other products and services, including tires and routine maintenance services, including state inspections. The company focuses on the repair and replacement of parts which periodically replaced as they wear out. The company does not perform under-the-hood repair services except for oil change services, various flush and fill services and some minor tune-up services.

O'Reilly Automotive Inc.

O'Reilly Automotive is a retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories, selling its products to both do-it-yourself and service provider customers. The company's stores carry a product line, including: new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting, oil and wiper blades; and accessories, such as floor mats, seat covers and truck accessories.

SEI Investments Company

SEI Investments is holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of investment processing, investment management and investment operations solutions. The company's segments are: private banks, which provides outsourced investment processing and investment management platforms; investment advisors, which provides investment management and investment processing platforms; institutional investors, which provides investment management and administrative outsourcing platforms; investment managers, which provides investment operations outsourcing solutions; and investments in new businesses, which focuses on providing investment management solutions to families residing in the U.S.

T. Rowe Price Group

T. Rowe Price Group is a financial services holding company that provides global investment management services. The company provide a range of United States mutual funds, subadvised funds, separately managed accounts, and other T. Rowe Price products. The company also provides certain investment advisory clients with related administrative services, including distribution, mutual fund transfer agent, accounting, and shareholder services; participant recordkeeping and transfer agent services for defined contribution retirement plans; brokerage; and trust services. The company also provide non-discretionary advisory planning services to fund shareholders and potential investors.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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