Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 230.98 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Our outlook remains cautious and we continue to expect heightened volatility and a potential retest of the February 2018 lows over the next several weeks. Near-term we are monitoring for S&P 500 support near 2,600 (i.e., the October low) and resistance near 2,817 or the 100- and 50-day moving averages. In today's report we outline our current concerns along with developments that would cause us to become more constructive on the market.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings (RSRs) & Weighting Recommendations. We are upgrading Financials to market weight. A longstanding concern we have cited for the broad market has been weakness in banks, and to a lesser extent the Financials Sector. This concern has been diminished recently, as banking indexes (KBE, KRE) and large-cap Financials (XLF) are stabilizing in terms of price while RS is bullishly inflecting... see pages 2-3.

• Defensives (Staples, pharma, REITs, Utilities) remain leadership. Bottoming RS for Financials/banks is a good start in potentially reversing the trend of defensive outperformance. In order to get more positive on the U.S. market, we would like to see stabilization and bullish reversals among cyclical areas, including: EM equities, semiconductors, biotech, major autos, and homebuilders... see page 4.

• High yield spreads, absolute U.S. yields, and the U.S. dollar all need to stop rising. In last week's Compass, we highlighted high yield spreads over the 10-yr Treasury breaking out above ~2 year resistance. This is significant because it is a fast-moving, early indicator of slowdowns or recessions. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strong USD also appear to be acting as headwinds for the market... see page 5.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups within Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care... see pages 10-28.
Underlyings
Advance Auto Parts Inc.

Advance Auto Parts is an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (Professional), and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers as well as independently owned operators. The company's stores and branches provide a range selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. Through its integrated operating approach, the company serves its Professional and DIY customers through a variety of channels ranging from brick and mortar store locations to self-service e-commerce sites.

AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.

AllianceBernstein Holding provides research, investment management and related services to a range of clients. The company's principal services include: institutional, which services institutional clients, including private and public pension plans, foundations and endowments, insurance companies, and central banks and governments; retail, which services retail clients, primarily by means of retail mutual funds; private wealth management, which services private clients, including high-net-worth individuals and families, trusts and estates, and partnerships; and Bernstein research services, which services institutional investors, such as pension fund, and hedge fund and mutual fund managers.

Ares Management LP

Associated Capital Group

Associated Capital Group provides alternative investment management services and institutional research services, as well as management of its proprietary investment portfolio. In its alternative asset management operations, subsidiaries of the company serve as general partner or investment manager to investment funds including limited partnerships, offshore companies and separate accounts. The company primarily manages assets in equity event-driven value strategies, across a range of risk and event arbitrage portfolios. Also, the company provides institutional research services through its subsidiary, G.research, LLC, which is a broker-dealer and also acts as an underwriter primarily for the company's affiliates.

AutoZone Inc.

AutoZone is a retailer and a distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company operates stores in the United States, including Puerto Rico and Saint Thomas, Mexico, and Brazil. Each store carries a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. In addition, the company has a commercial sales program that provides commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products to local, regional and national repair garages, dealers, service stations and public sector accounts. The company also sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software.

Capital Southwest Corp.

Capital Southwest is an internally managed closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. The company's investment objective is to produce risk-adjusted returns by generating current income from its debt investments and capital appreciation from its equity and equity related investments.

Capitol Federal Financial Inc.

Capitol Federal Financial is a savings and loan holding company. Through its Capitol Federal Savings Bank subsidiary, the company accepts deposits from the public and businesses and invests those funds in permanent loans secured by first mortgages on owner-occupied, one- to four-family residences. The company also originates and participates in commercial loans, originates consumer loans secured by mortgages on one- to four-family residences, and invests in certain investment securities and mortgage-backed securities. The company provides a variety of deposit accounts, which include savings accounts, money market accounts, interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing checking accounts, and certificates of deposit.

Charles River Laboratories International Inc.

Charles River Laboratories International is a contract research organization. The company has a laboratory animal medicine and science to develop a portfolio of discovery and safety assessment services. The company's segments are: Research Models and Services, which supplies research models to the drug development industry; Discovery and Safety Assessment (DSA), which provides DSA services, including in vitro and in vivo studies, laboratory support services, and strategic non-clinical consulting and program management to support product development; and Manufacturing Support, which ensures the production and release of products manufactured by the company's clients.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill together with its subsidiaries operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which feature a menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), tacos, and salads. The company operates Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, international Chipotle restaurants, and non-Chipotle restaurants. The company uses various herbs, spices and seasonings to prepare its meats and vegetables. The company also serves tortilla chips that seasoned with lime juice and salt, with sides of hand mashed guacamole, salsas, or queso. In addition to sodas, fruit and tea drinks, and organic milk, most of the company's restaurants also provide a selection of beer and margaritas.

Domino's Pizza Inc.

Domino's Pizza is a pizza company. The company is primarily engaged in the following business activities: retail sales of food through the company-owned Domino's Pizza stores; sales of food, equipment and supplies to the company-owned and franchised Domino's Pizza stores through the company-owned supply chain centers; receipt of royalties, advertising contributions and fees from United States Domino's Pizza franchisees; and receipt of royalties and fees from international Domino's Pizza franchisees. The company's menu features pizza products with varying sizes and crust types. The company's store also provides oven-baked sandwiches, pasta, boneless chicken and wings, bread side items, desserts and soft drink products.

Dunkin' Brands Group Inc.

Dunkin' Brands Group is a franchisor of quick service restaurants serving hot and cold coffee and baked goods, as well as ice cream. Through its Dunkin' Donuts brand, the company franchises restaurants featuring coffee, donuts, bagels, breakfast sandwiches, and related products. The company licenses Dunkin' Donuts brand products sold in certain retail outlets such as retail packaged coffee, Dunkin' K-Cup? pods, and ready-to-drink bottled iced coffee. Through its Baskin-Robbins brand, the company franchises restaurants featuring ice cream, frozen beverages, and related products. The company distributes Baskin-Robbins ice cream products to certain markets for sale in Baskin-Robbins restaurants and certain retail outlets.

Genuine Parts Company

Genuine Parts is engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial parts, and business products. The company's reportable business segments are: Automotive, which distributes automotive parts and accessory items and provides inventory, cataloging, marketing, training and other programs to the automotive aftermarket; Industrial, which distributes industrial replacement parts and related supplies such as bearings, mechanical and electrical power transmission products, industrial automation, and hose, among others; and Business Products, which is engaged in the wholesale distribution of a line of office and other business-related products through a customer base of resellers.

Goldman Sachs BDC Inc

Illumina Inc.

Illumina is engaged in sequencing- and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis. The company provides whole-genome sequencing, genotyping, noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT), and product support services. Using the company's services, customers can perform whole-genome sequencing projects and microarray projects (including large-scale genotyping studies and whole-genome association studies). The company provides NIPT services through its partner laboratories that direct samples to the company on a test send-out basis in its Clinical Laboratory Improvements Amendments-certified, College of Pathologists-accredited laboratory. The company also provides support services to customers who have purchased its products.

McDonald's Corporation

McDonald's franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants. The company's menu includes hamburgers and cheeseburgers, Big Mac, Quarter Pounder with Cheese, Filet-O-Fish, several chicken sandwiches, Chicken McNuggets, wraps, fries, shakes, McFlurry desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, pies, soft drinks, coffee, McCafe beverages and other beverages. The company's restaurants in the United States and various international markets provide a full or limited breakfast menu. Breakfast offerings may include Egg McMuffin, Sausage McMuffin with Egg, McGriddles, biscuit and bagel sandwiches and hotcakes. The restaurants also sells a variety of other products during limited-time promotions

Monro Inc

Monro is engaged principally in providing automotive undercar repair and tire sales and services. The company provides a range of services on passenger cars, light trucks and vans for brakes; mufflers and exhaust systems; and steering, drive train, suspension and wheel alignment. The company also provides other products and services, including tires and routine maintenance services, including state inspections. The company focuses on the repair and replacement of parts which periodically replaced as they wear out. The company does not perform under-the-hood repair services except for oil change services, various flush and fill services and some minor tune-up services.

NanoString Technologies

NanoString Technologies develops, manufactures and sells products that unlock scientifically and clinically actionable information from minute amounts of biological material. The company has two commercially available product platform, its nCounter Analysis System and its GeoMx Digital Spatial Profiling (DSP) system, both of which include instruments and related consumables. nCounter can be used to analyze the activity of up to 800 genes in a single experiment. GeoMx DSP is designed to enable the field of spatial genomics and is used to analyze specifically selected regions of a biological sample in order to see how gene activity might vary across those regions or in certain cell types.

Noah Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A

O'Reilly Automotive Inc.

O'Reilly Automotive is a retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories, selling its products to both do-it-yourself and service provider customers. The company's stores carry a product line, including: new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting, oil and wiper blades; and accessories, such as floor mats, seat covers and truck accessories.

PerkinElmer Inc.

PerkinElmer is a provider of products, services and solutions for the diagnostics, life sciences and applied markets. The company operates in the following segments: Discovery and Analytical Solutions and Diagnostics. The company's Discovery and Analytical Solutions segment serves the life sciences and applied markets. The life sciences market consists of the life sciences research market and laboratory services market whereas the applied markets consist of environmental, food and industrial markets. In its Diagnostics segments, the company provides instruments, reagents, assay platforms, and software to hospitals, medical labs, clinicians, and medical research personnel to help improve the health of families.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc.

PNC Financial Services Group is a bank holding company. The company has businesses engaged in retail banking, including residential mortgage, corporate and institutional banking and asset management, providing its products and services nationally. The company's segments are: Retail Banking, which provides deposit, lending, brokerage, insurance services, investment management and cash management products and services; Corporate and Institutional Banking, which provides lending, treasury management, and capital markets-related products and services; Asset Management Group, which provides personal wealth management; and BlackRock, which provides a range of investment and technology services.

STERIS Plc

TFS Financial

TFS Financial is a stock holding company. The company's primary business activity consists of the ownership of Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland (the Association). The Association's principal business consists of originating and servicing residential real estate mortgage loans and accepting retail savings deposits. The Association also provides savings products and first mortgage refinance loans and home equity lines of credit. The Association's principal lending activity is the origination of fixed-rate and adjustable-rate, first mortgage loans to purchase or refinance residential real estate.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Thermo Fisher Scientific is engaged in serving science. The company's segments include: Life Sciences Solutions, which provides reagents, instruments and consumables used in biological and medical research, discovery and production of new drugs and vaccines as well as diagnosis of disease; Analytical Instruments, which provides instruments, consumables, software and services that are used for a range of applications in the laboratory, on the production line and in the field; and Specialty Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic test kits, reagents, culture media, instruments and associated products for customers in healthcare, clinical, pharmaceutical, industrial, and food safety laboratories.

Truist Financial Corporation

BB&T is a financial holding company. Through its bank subsidiary, Branch Banking and Trust Company, the company provides banking services to individuals, businesses and municipalities. The company provides loans and lease financing, including commercial and residential mortgages; permanent commercial real estate financing arrangements; loan servicing for third-party investors; direct consumer finance loans to individuals; credit card lending; automobile financing; and equipment financing. The company also provides other services, including deposits; discount and brokerage, annuities and mutual funds; life insurance, property and casualty insurance, health insurance and commercial general liability insurance.

U.S. Bancorp

U.S. Bancorp is a multi-state financial services holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services. The company also engages in credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing. The company's subsidiary, U.S. Bank National Association, is engaged in the general banking business, principally in domestic markets. The company's bank and trust subsidiaries provide a range of asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations and charitable organizations.

Waterstone Financial

Waterstone Financial is a savings and loan holding company. Through its subsidiary, WaterStone Bank SSB (the Bank), the company provides financial services to customers in southeastern Wisconsin. The Bank's principal lending activity is originating one- to four-family, multi-family residential, and commercial real estate loans. The Bank also provides home equity loans and lines of credit, construction and land loans, commercial real estate and commercial business loans, and consumer loans. The company's deposit offerings include certificates of deposit, money market savings accounts,transaction deposit accounts, non-interest bearing demand accounts and individual retirement accounts.

Wendy's Company

The Wendy's is a holding company. The company's subsidiary, Wendy's Restaurants, LLC, is the parent company of Wendy's International, LLC (Wendy's), which is the owner and franchisor of the Wendy's? restaurant system in the U.S. Wendy's is a quick-service restaurant company in the hamburger sandwich segment. Each Wendy's restaurant provides a menu featuring hamburger sandwiches and filet of chicken breast sandwiches. Wendy's menu also includes chicken nuggets, chili, french fries, baked potatoes, salads, soft drinks, Frosty? desserts and kids' meals. In addition, the restaurants sell a variety of promotional products.Wendy's also provides breakfast in some restaurants in the U.S.

Yum! Brands Inc.

Yum! Brands franchises or operates a system of quick service restaurants through its KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands. The company's operating segments consist of the KFC Division, the Pizza Hut Division and the Taco Bell Division. KFC restaurants provides fried and non-fried chicken products such as sandwiches, chicken strips, chicken-on-the-bone and other chicken products marketed under a variety of names. Pizza Hut is engaged in the sale of ready-to-eat pizza products. Pizza Hut operates in the delivery, carryout and casual dining segments. Taco Bell is engaged in Mexican-style food products, including various types of tacos, burritos, quesadillas, salads, nachos and other related items.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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