Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 230.98 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

One step forward, one step back

As the market churns in a one step forward, one step back fashion, we remain in wait-and-see mode as to whether recent improvements in cyclical value areas of the market have staying power. Considering the lack of breakouts or breakdowns in key cyclical areas of the market, our neutral outlook remains intact.

• S&P 500, Dow, and S&P Small Cap 600 levels. We see short-term support for each of these indexes at their respective 50-day moving averages (prior resistance from August, turned support)... see charts below.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Defensives including Utilities and cap-weighted Staples remain at the top of our rankings. We examine the Utilities Sector (XLU) which exhibits signs of being overbought... see pages 2-3.

• Retail bottoming? Equal-weighted retail (XRT) displays bullish price and RS reversals, making it one of the most compelling value-oriented areas of the market to add exposure. We highlight a number of attractive and actionable bottom-fishing candidates, including Nordstrom (JWN), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Buckle (BKE), and Fossil (FOSL)... see pages 4-5.

• Growth vs. Value; Small vs. Large. Over the past 2-3 weeks the growth vs. value ratio has continued to slowly move in favor of value across the market cap spectrum. As for the small- vs. large-cap ratio, small-caps have not held their ground relative to large-caps, as this ratio has decisively moved in favor of large-caps over that same 2-3 week timeframe... see page 6.

• Precious Metals. Gold and silver prices exhibit signs of short-term deterioration. Barring a recovery in the next few days, gold and silver prices may be poised to revisit their prior breakout levels... see page 6.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Retailers, Auto Parts, FN-03 Canadian Banks, MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures, and MF-33 Building Products, Doors & Windows... see pages 14-30.
Underlyings
Advance Auto Parts Inc.

Advance Auto Parts is an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (Professional), and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers as well as independently owned operators. The company's stores and branches provide a range selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. Through its integrated operating approach, the company serves its Professional and DIY customers through a variety of channels ranging from brick and mortar store locations to self-service e-commerce sites.

American Woodmark Corporation

American Woodmark manufactures and distributes kitchen, bath and home organization products for the remodeling and new home construction markets. The company provides a variety of products that fall into product lines including kitchen cabinetry, bath cabinetry, office cabinetry, home organization and hardware. The company's cabinetry products are available in a variety of designs, finishes and finish colors and door styles. The company provides products in the following categories: made-to-order, which are special ordered and shipped directly to the home from the factory; and stock, which represents cash and carry products sold through home centers. The company's home organization products are stock products.

Armstrong World Industries Inc.

Armstrong World Industries is a producer of ceiling systems for use primarily in the construction and renovation of commercial and residential buildings. The company designs, manufactures and sells ceiling systems (primarily mineral fiber, fiberglass wool and metal). The company's segments are: Mineral Fiber, which produces suspended mineral fiber and soft fiber ceiling systems for use in commercial and residential settings and includes its joint venture, Worthington Armstrong Venture, that manufactures suspension system (grid) products and ceiling component products; and Architectural Specialties, which produces and sources ceilings and walls for use in commercial settings.

AutoZone Inc.

AutoZone is a retailer and a distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company operates stores in the United States, including Puerto Rico and Saint Thomas, Mexico, and Brazil. Each store carries a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. In addition, the company has a commercial sales program that provides commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products to local, regional and national repair garages, dealers, service stations and public sector accounts. The company also sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software.

Bank of Nova Scotia

Scotiabank is a financial services provider in North America, Latin America, the Caribbean and Central America, and parts of Asia. Through its three operating segments: Canadian Banking, International Banking, and Global Banking and Markets, Co. provides a range of advice, products and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management and private banking, corporate and investment banking, and capital markets. As of Oct 31 2017, Co. had total assets of C$915,273 million and total deposits of C$625,367 million.

BlueLinx Holdings

BlueLinx Holdings is a distributor of building and industrial products. The company operates its distribution business through a network of distribution centers. The company serves various metropolitan areas in the U.S. The company distributes products in two principal categories: structural products and specialty products. Structural products include plywood, oriented strand board, rebar and remesh, lumber, spruce and other wood products primarily used for structural support, walls, and flooring in construction projects. Specialty products include engineered wood products, moulding, siding (including vinyl products), cedar, metal products (excluding rebar and remesh) and insulation.

Builders FirstSource Inc.

Builders FirstSource, through its subsidiaries is a supplier and manufacturer of building materials, manufactured components and construction services to homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers and consumers. The company provides a solution to its customers providing manufacturing, supply and installation of structural and related building products. The company's manufactured products include factory-built roof and floor trusses, and wall panels and stairs. The company also assembles interior and exterior doors into pre-hung units. Additionally, the company supplies its customers with building products not manufactured by the company, such as dimensional lumber and lumber sheet goods and various window, door and millwork lines.

Continental Building Products Inc.

Continental Building Products is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company manufactures gypsum wallboard and complementary finishing products. Gypsum wallboard is a building product for interior and exterior walls and ceilings in residential and commercial structures. The company provides gypsum wallboard products, including LiftLite ?, its lightweight product, its Mold Defense ? line of products for protection against mold and mildew, and its Weather Defense ? line of moisture and mold-resistant exterior sheathing. The company also operates a finishing products business that manufactures joint compounds at its plant in Silver Grove (Kentucky) and its joint compound plant in Chambly (Quebec).

Gibraltar Industries Inc.

Gibraltar Industries is a manufacturer and distributor of building products for residential, industrial, infrastructure, renewable energy and conservation markets. The company has three segments: Residential Products, which services the residential repair and remodeling and the housing construction markets; Industrial and Infrastructure Products, which serves a variety of end markets such as industrial and commercial construction, highway and bridge construction, automotive, airports and energy and power generation; and Renewable Energy and Conservation, which is primarily a designer and manufacturer of solar mounting systems and greenhouse structures.

GMS Inc.

GMS is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as a building products including wallboard, suspended ceilings systems, or ceilings, steel framing and other complementary building products. The company's product offering are: wallboard for interior and exterior walls and ceilings in residential and commercial structures; ceilings, which consists of suspended mineral fiber, soft fiber and metal ceiling systems; Steel Framing, which consists of steel track, studs and the various other steel products; and Other Products, which includes complementary products such as insulation, lumber, ready-mix-joint compound and various other interior construction products and ancillary products.

Griffon Corporation

Griffon is a management and holding company that conducts its business through wholly-owned subsidiaries. The company's segments: Consumer and Professional Products, which manufactures and markets a portfolio of long-handled tools, landscaping products, and home organization product used by seasonal outdoor tools, project tools, outdoor decor and watering, home organization, and cleaning products categories; Home and Building Products, which manufactures a line of residential sectional garage doors; and Defense Electronics, which designs, develops, manufactures and provides logistical support and lifecycle sustainment services to defense, aerospace and commercial customers.

Installed Building Products Inc.

Installed Building Products is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company primarily install insulation, waterproofing, fire-stopping, fireproofing, garage doors, rain gutters, window blinds, shower doors, closet shelving and mirrors and other products for residential and commercial builders located in the continental U.S. The company provides its portfolio of services for new and existing single-family and multi-family residential and commercial building projects from its national network of branch locations. The company provides a range of insulation materials, including: fiberglass and cellulose insulation, and spray foam insulation.

LKQ Corporation

LKQ is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides alternative vehicle collision replacement products and alternative vehicle mechanical replacement products. The company is also a provider of alternative vehicle replacement and maintenance products in the United Kingdom, Germany, the Benelux region (Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg), Italy, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Austria, and other European countries. In addition to its wholesale operations, the company operates self service retail facilities across the United States that sell recycled automotive products from end-of-life-vehicles. The company is also a distributor of specialty vehicle aftermarket equipment and accessories.

Masco Corporation

Masco designs, manufactures and distributes home improvement and building products. The company's Plumbing Products include faucets, showerheads, handheld showers, valves, bath hardware and accessories, bathing units, shower bases and enclosures and toilets. This segment also includes brass, copper and composite plumbing system components and other non-decorative plumbing products. The company's Decorative Architectural Products include cabinet and door hardware, functional hardware, wall plates, hook and hook rail products, and picture hanging accessories. This segment also includes decorative indoor and outdoor lighting fixtures, ceiling fans, landscape lighting and LED lighting systems.

Masonite International Corp.

Masonite International designs, manufactures and distributes interior and exterior doors for the new construction and repair, renovation and remodeling sectors of the residential and non-residential building construction markets. Co. manufactures a line of interior doors, including residential molded, flush, stile and rail, louver and commercial and architectural doors; door components for internal use and sale to other door manufacturers; and exterior residential steel, fiberglass and wood doors and entry systems. Co.'s portfolio of brands include Masonite®, Marshfield®, Premdor®, Mohawk®, Megantic®, Algoma®, Birchwood Best®, Lemieux®, Door-Stop™, Harring Doors™ and National Hickman™ .

OWENS CORNING INC

Owens Corning is engaged in manufacturing and delivering a range of insulation, roofing, and fiberglass composite materials. The company's Composites segment includes vertically integrated downstream activities. The company manufactures, fabricates and sells glass reinforcements in the form of fiber. The company's Insulation segment includes a portfolio of high, mid and low-temperature products with a geographic mix of United States, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America, a market mix of residential, commercial, industrial and other markets, and a channel mix of retail, contractor and distribution. The company's products in the Roofing segment are laminate and strip asphalt roofing shingles.

PGT Innovations Inc.

PGT Innovations is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a manufacturer and supplier of residential impact-resistant windows and doors. The company manufactures lines of mass-custom aluminum and vinyl windows and doors and porch enclosure products targeting both the residential repair and remodeling and new construction end markets. The company's brands include: PGT? Custom Windows & Doors, CGI? Windows and Doors and WinDoor?. The geographic regions in which the company conducts business include the Southeastern U.S., Western U.S., Gulf Coast, Coastal mid-Atlantic, the Caribbean, Central America, and Canada. The company operates as one segment, the manufacture and sale of windows and doors.

Quanex Building Products Corporation

Quanex Building Products manufactures components for original equipment manufacturers in the building products industry. The company's segments are: North American Fenestration, which focuses on the fenestration market in North America manufacturing vinyl profiles, insulating glass (IG) spacers, screens and other fenestration components; European Fenestration, comprising the company's United Kingdom-based vinyl extrusion business, manufacturing vinyl profiles and conservatories, and the European IG business manufacturing IG spacers; and North American Cabinet Components, comprising the company's North American cabinet door and components business and wood-manufacturing plants.

Royal Bank of Canada

Royal Bank of Canada is a financial services company that provides personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, investor services and capital markets products and services. Co. serves personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 37 other countries. Co. is organized into five segments: Personal and Commercial Banking, which is comprised of Co.'s personal and business banking operations, and its auto financing businesses; Wealth Management, Insurance; Investor and Treasury Services; and Capital Markets. As of Oct 31 2017, Co. had total assets of C$1.21 trillion and total deposits of C$789.64 billion.

Simpson Manufacturing Co. Inc.

Simpson Manufacturing, through its subsidiary, designs, engineers and manufactures wood and concrete building construction products. The company's wood construction products are used in light-frame construction and include connectors, truss plates, fastening systems, fasteners and pre-fabricated lateral systems. The company's concrete construction products are used in concrete, masonry and steel construction and include adhesives, mechanical anchors, carbide drill bits, powder actuated tools, and fiber reinforced materials. The company also provides engineering services in support of some of its products and provides design and other software that facilitates the specification, selection and use of its products.

Tecnoglass Inc.

Toronto-Dominion Bank

Toronto Dominion Bank provides financial services. Co.'s segments comprised of: Canadian Retail, which include Canadian personal and commercial banking businesses, Canadian credit cards, TD Auto Finance Canada and Canadian wealth and insurance businesses; US Retail, which includes the US personal and commercial banking businesses, US credit cards, TD Auto Finance US, US wealth business and the Bank's investment its subsidiary, TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation; and Wholesale Banking, which provides a range of capital markets, investment banking, and corporate banking products and services. As of Oct 31 2017, Co. had total assets of C$1.28 trillion and total deposits of C$832.82 billion.

Tredegar Corp.

Tredegar is engaged in the manufacture of polyethylene (PE) plastic films, polyester (PET) films and aluminum extrusions. The company's business segments are: PE Films, which manufactures plastic films, elastics and laminate materials; Flexible Packaging Films, which produces PET-based films for use in packaging applications that have properties, such as heat resistance, strength, barrier protection and the ability to accept print graphics; and Aluminum Extrusions, which produces soft-alloy and medium-strength aluminum extrusions primarily for building and construction, automotive, consumer durables, machinery and equipment, electrical and distribution markets.

Trex Company Inc.

Trex Company is a manufacturer of composite decking and railing products, which are marketed under the brand name Trex?. In addition, the company is a national provider of custom-engineered railing and staging, systems for the commercial and multi-family market, including sports stadiums and performing arts venues. The company operates in two reportable segments: Trex Residential Products, which provides a set of product offerings in the decking, railing, fencing, steel deck framing, and outdoor lighting categories; and Trex Commercial Products, which designs and engineers custom railing solutions, which are used in collegiate sports facilities, standardized architectural and aluminum railing systems.

UFP Industries Inc.

Universal Forest Products is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, manufactures and markets wood and wood-alternative products for national home centers and other retailers, structural lumber and other products for the manufactured housing industry, engineered wood components for residential and commercial construction, specialty wood packaging, components and packing materials for various industries, and customized interior fixtures used in a variety of retail and commercial structures. In addition, the company provides outdoor living products. The company also sells engineered wood components to this market, which include roof trusses, wall panels and engineered floor systems.

US Auto Parts Network Inc

U.S. Auto Parts Network is an online provider of automotive aftermarket parts. The company's products are: collision parts serving the body repair segment, engine parts to serve the replacement/wear parts market and performance parts and accessories. The collision parts category is comprised of parts for the exterior of an automobile. The engine parts category is comprised of engine and chassis components as well as other mechanical and electrical parts. The company's performance parts and accessories consist of parts that improve the performance of the automobile, upgrade existing functionality of a specific part or improve the physical appearance or comfort of the automobile.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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