Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.45 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments

Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below. With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support; as long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.

Bottom Line: Major US and Global Indexes Still Above Critical Supports. Last week there was a strong bounce off of our key supports of 4545 and the 50-day MA on the S&P 500 and $383 and the 50-day MA on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ); these remain critical supports moving forward. On the other hand, other indexes have had weak bounces and are once again approaching support. This includes $208 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), $135 on Russell Micro Caps (IWC), $76.50 on MSCI EAFE (EFA), and $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX). If supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. However, if supports start to break we would turn bearish as we would expect a more significant correction... see page 3.
Reasons To Be Concerned. Market dynamics continue to deteriorate which means there are plenty of reasons to be concerned: (1) Defensive Sectors are improving relative to cyclicals, with both the cap- and equal-weighted Discretionary vs. Staples ratios violating uptrend support. (2) Small-caps are hitting 1-year RS lows. (3) Breadth remains unhealthy and is getting worse. (3) Emerging markets (EEM) remain in a downtrend and are hitting 1-year lows. (4) The US dollar (DXY) remains strong with the uptrend intact. (5) WTI crude oil broke below $76 long-term support and Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) displays a 1.5-year uptrend violation. (6) High yield spreads have widened to levels last seen in February. (7) Treasury yields are flirting with breakdowns below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield. (8) The 10/2s Treasury yield spread is on a narrowing path. These are all risk-off signals that have us on watch for potential breakdowns below $208 on IWM and $135 on IWC... see charts below and pages 3-5.
In
Underlyings
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company. The company primarily provides x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated into an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and personnel GPUs, and development services; server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company also licenses portions of its intellectual property portfolio. The company's segments are: Computing and Graphics, which consists of desktop, notebooks, commercial, and chipsets products; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom, which includes server processors, and embedded P\processors products.

Analog Devices Inc.

Analog Devices is an analog technology company. The company designs, manufactures, and markets a portfolio of solutions, including integrated circuits, algorithms, software, and subsystems. The company's analog products include data converter that translate real-world analog signals into digital data and also translate digital data into analog signals, amplifiers that condition analog signals, and power management and reference products that include functions such as power conversion, driver monitoring, sequencing and energy management. The company's digital signal processing products are designed to execute software programs, or algorithms, associated with processing digitized real-time, real-world data.

Armstrong World Industries Inc.

Armstrong World Industries is a producer of ceiling systems for use primarily in the construction and renovation of commercial and residential buildings. The company designs, manufactures and sells ceiling systems (primarily mineral fiber, fiberglass wool and metal). The company's segments are: Mineral Fiber, which produces suspended mineral fiber and soft fiber ceiling systems for use in commercial and residential settings and includes its joint venture, Worthington Armstrong Venture, that manufactures suspension system (grid) products and ceiling component products; and Architectural Specialties, which produces and sources ceilings and walls for use in commercial settings.

Ballard Power Systems Inc.

Ballard Power Systems is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, sale and service of proton exchange membrane fuel cell products for a variety of applications, focusing on the power product markets of Heavy-Duty Motive (consisting of bus, truck, rail and marine applications), Portable Power, Material Handling and Backup Power, as well as the delivery of Technology Solutions, including engineering services, technology transfer and the license and sale of Co.'s intellectual property portfolio and fundamental knowledge for a variety of fuel cell applications. A fuel cell is an electrochemical device that combines hydrogen fuel with oxygen (from the air) to produce electricity.

BlueLinx Holdings

BlueLinx Holdings is a distributor of building and industrial products. The company operates its distribution business through a network of distribution centers. The company serves various metropolitan areas in the U.S. The company distributes products in two principal categories: structural products and specialty products. Structural products include plywood, oriented strand board, rebar and remesh, lumber, spruce and other wood products primarily used for structural support, walls, and flooring in construction projects. Specialty products include engineered wood products, moulding, siding (including vinyl products), cedar, metal products (excluding rebar and remesh) and insulation.

Broadcom Inc.

Broadcom, via its subsidiaries, is a designer, developer and supplier of a range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The company develops semiconductor devices with a focus on digital and mixed signal complementary metal oxide semiconductor based devices and analog III-V based products. The company provides products that are used in end products such as enterprise and data center networking, home connectivity, set-top boxes, broadband access, telecommunication equipment, smartphones and base stations, data center servers and storage systems, and factory automation. The company has three segments: semiconductor solutions, infrastructure software and intellectual property licensing.

Builders FirstSource Inc.

Builders FirstSource, through its subsidiaries is a supplier and manufacturer of building materials, manufactured components and construction services to homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers and consumers. The company provides a solution to its customers providing manufacturing, supply and installation of structural and related building products. The company's manufactured products include factory-built roof and floor trusses, and wall panels and stairs. The company also assembles interior and exterior doors into pre-hung units. Additionally, the company supplies its customers with building products not manufactured by the company, such as dimensional lumber and lumber sheet goods and various window, door and millwork lines.

General Motors Corp.

Home Depot Inc.

The Home Depot is a home improvement retailer. The company provides its customers an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provides a number of services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rental. The company also maintains a network of distribution and fulfillment centers, as well as a number of e-commerce websites. The company provides a number of programs for its Professional Customers to meet their particular needs, and for its Do-It-Yourself and Do-It-For-Me customers, the company provides a number of installation services. The company also provides tool and equipment rentals for its customers.

Installed Building Products Inc.

Installed Building Products is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company primarily install insulation, waterproofing, fire-stopping, fireproofing, garage doors, rain gutters, window blinds, shower doors, closet shelving and mirrors and other products for residential and commercial builders located in the continental U.S. The company provides its portfolio of services for new and existing single-family and multi-family residential and commercial building projects from its national network of branch locations. The company provides a range of insulation materials, including: fiberglass and cellulose insulation, and spray foam insulation.

Lowe's Companies Inc.

Lowe's Companies is a home improvement retailer. The company provides home improvement products in lumber and building materials, appliances, seasonal and outdoor living, tools and hardware, fashion fixtures, rough plumbing and electrical, paint, millwork, lawn and garden, flooring, and kitchens categories. The company provides installation services through independent contractors in product categories, including appliances, flooring, kitchens, lumber and building materials, and millwork. The company also provides extended protection plans for various products within the appliances, kitchens, fashion fixtures, millwork, rough plumbing and electrical, seasonal and outdoor living, and tools and hardware categories.

MARVELL TECHNOLOGY INC

Masco Corporation

Masco designs, manufactures and distributes home improvement and building products. The company's Plumbing Products include faucets, showerheads, handheld showers, valves, bath hardware and accessories, bathing units, shower bases and enclosures and toilets. This segment also includes brass, copper and composite plumbing system components and other non-decorative plumbing products. The company's Decorative Architectural Products include cabinet and door hardware, functional hardware, wall plates, hook and hook rail products, and picture hanging accessories. This segment also includes decorative indoor and outdoor lighting fixtures, ceiling fans, landscape lighting and LED lighting systems.

Microchip Technology Incorporated

Microchip Technology develops, manufactures and sells semiconductor products. The company's product portfolio comprises general purpose and other eight-bit, 16-bit, 32-bit microcontrollers, 32-bit microprocessors, field-programmable gate array products, a range of linear, mixed-signal, power management, thermal management, discrete diodes, Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistors, radio frequency, timing, timing systems, safety, security, wired connectivity and wireless connectivity devices, serial Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory, Serial Flash memories, Parallel Flash memories, Serial Electrically Erasable Random Access Memory and serial Static Random Access Memory.

Micron Technology Inc.

Micron Technology provides memory and storage solutions. The company's portfolio of memory and storage technologies include Dynamic Random Access Memory, Not And, 3D XPoint? memory, and Not Or. The company's segments are: Compute and Networking Business, which includes memory products sold into client, cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets; Mobile Business, which includes memory products sold into smartphone and other mobile-device markets; Storage Business, which includes Solid-State Drives and component-level solutions sold into enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; and Embedded Business, which includes memory and storage products.

NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA engages in graphics processing unit (GPU)-based visual computing and accelerated computing platforms. The company has two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor, which are based on a single underlying architecture. The company's GPU product brands are aimed at markets including GeForce for gamers; Quadro for designers; Tesla and DGX for artificial intelligence data scientists and big data researchers; and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users. The company's Tegra brand integrates an entire computer onto a single chip, and incorporates GPUs and multi-core CPUs to drive supercomputing for autonomous robots, drones, and cars, as well as for game consoles and mobile gaming and entertainment devices.

NXP Semiconductors NV

NXP Semiconductors is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a global semiconductor company and a long-standing supplier in the industry. Co. provides High-Performance Mixed-Signal and Standard Product solutions. Co.'s product solutions are used in automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, industrial, mobile, consumer and computing applications. Co. engages with original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and sell products in all major geographic regions.

ON Semiconductor Corporation

ON Semiconductor is engaged in energy efficient electronics. The company is organized into three segments: Power Solutions Group, which provides a range of discrete, module and integrated semiconductor products; Analog Solutions Group, which designs and develops analog, mixed-signal, and advanced logic application specific integrated circuits and Application Specific Standard Product, and power solutions; and Image Sensor Group, which designs and develops complementary metal oxide semiconductor and charge-coupled device image sensors, as well as proximity sensors, image signal processors and actuator drivers for autofocus and image stabilization for automotive and industrial markets, among others.

Simpson Manufacturing Co. Inc.

Simpson Manufacturing, through its subsidiary, designs, engineers and manufactures wood and concrete building construction products. The company's wood construction products are used in light-frame construction and include connectors, truss plates, fastening systems, fasteners and pre-fabricated lateral systems. The company's concrete construction products are used in concrete, masonry and steel construction and include adhesives, mechanical anchors, carbide drill bits, powder actuated tools, and fiber reinforced materials. The company also provides engineering services in support of some of its products and provides design and other software that facilitates the specification, selection and use of its products.

Stabilus SA

Stabilus SA, formerly Servus HoldCo SARL is a Luxembourg-based company. The Company is the automotive and industrial supplier. It develops and produces electromechanical drives, gas springs and dampers. Its products in the automotive segment are used in a broad range of applications such as tailgates, hoods, doors and convertible tops. In addition, Stabilus SA supplies industrial customers, for example in medical and rehab technology (operating tables, hospital beds, wheelchairs), transportation and traffic (flaps and lids for luggage, loading and maintenance), furniture (cabinet lids, beds, tables) and house and building technology (skylights, smoke exhaust vents, awnings).

Trex Company Inc.

Trex Company is a manufacturer of composite decking and railing products, which are marketed under the brand name Trex?. In addition, the company is a national provider of custom-engineered railing and staging, systems for the commercial and multi-family market, including sports stadiums and performing arts venues. The company operates in two reportable segments: Trex Residential Products, which provides a set of product offerings in the decking, railing, fencing, steel deck framing, and outdoor lighting categories; and Trex Commercial Products, which designs and engineers custom railing solutions, which are used in collegiate sports facilities, standardized architectural and aluminum railing systems.

UFP Industries Inc.

Universal Forest Products is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, manufactures and markets wood and wood-alternative products for national home centers and other retailers, structural lumber and other products for the manufactured housing industry, engineered wood components for residential and commercial construction, specialty wood packaging, components and packing materials for various industries, and customized interior fixtures used in a variety of retail and commercial structures. In addition, the company provides outdoor living products. The company also sells engineered wood components to this market, which include roof trusses, wall panels and engineered floor systems.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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