Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.33 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000

We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.

Semiconductors & Transports Breaking Out. The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOXX) and the equal-weighted Transportation Sector (XTN) are the latest cyclical areas to break out to new YTD closing highs. They join the list that includes Energy (XOP), Financials/banks (XLF, KRE), mid-caps (IJH), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). Virtually all signs are pointing to a new broad-based bull market. That leaves the Russell 2000 small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) as the last two key areas that we would like to see break out to YTD highs, and we believe it will happen soon. Lastly, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above the key $74 resistance level; as long as it remains below $74 it will be a drag on overall risk sentiment... see chart below and page 3.
Cyclicals vs. Defensives, Gold vs. S&P 500. Cap- and equal-weighted Discretionary vs. Staples ratios (XLY/XLP, RCD/RHS) continue to hit new highs, as has been the case for over a month. Additionally, the gold vs. S&P 500 ratio is hitting 16+ year lows. These are major risk-on signals... see page 4.
10-Year Treasury Yield. The 10-year Treasury yield is testing logical resistance in the 1.69-1.76% range; we believe the 10-year yield will need to get above this range in order for value to outperform. As long as support around 1.40-1.45% holds we expect an eventual breakout above 1.76%... see page 5.
S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish as it hit our 4600 initial target. Resistance remains at the solid red uptrend (see chart on page 5), which is currently 4620. As long as the S&P 500 remains above supports at 4545, the 50-day MA (4463), and 4430, we expect to see 4700 next (the blue dashed uptrend)... see page 5.
Underlyings
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company. The company primarily provides x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated into an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and personnel GPUs, and development services; server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company also licenses portions of its intellectual property portfolio. The company's segments are: Computing and Graphics, which consists of desktop, notebooks, commercial, and chipsets products; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom, which includes server processors, and embedded P\processors products.

ArcBest Corporation

ArcBest is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a suite of freight transportation services and integrated logistics solutions. The company's operations are conducted through three reportable operating segments: Asset-Based, ArcBest, and FleetNet. The company's Asset-Based segment provides less-than-truckload services through its subsidiary, ABF Freight System, Inc., and certain other subsidiaries' motor carrier operations. The ArcBest and FleetNet reportable segments, combined, represent the company's Asset-Light operations, which provide customers end-to-end logistics solutions, designed to satisfy the supply chain and shipping requirements they encounter.

Electrostar S.A.

Enphase Energy Inc.

Enphase Energy is a global energy technology company. The company designs, develops, manufactures and sells home energy solutions that connect energy generation, energy storage and control and communications management on one platform. The company's semiconductor-based microinverter converts energy at the individual solar module level and, combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control. The Enphase Home Energy Solution with IQ consists of four primary components: Enphase microinverters, the AC Battery?, an Envoy gateway, and Enlighten cloud-based software.

First Solar Inc.

First Solar is a provider of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions. The company designs, manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology, and also develops and sells PV solar power systems that mainly use the modules it manufactures. The company also provides operations and maintenance (O&M) services to system owners. The company's modules segment involves the design, manufacture and sale of cadmium telluride solar modules, which convert sunlight into electricity. The company's second segment is its systems segment, through which it provides power plant solutions, which include project development, engineering, procurement, and construction services and O&M services.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a surface transportation, delivery, and logistics company. The company's service offerings include transportation of full-truckload containerized freight, which it directly transports utilizing its equipment and company drivers or independent contractors. The company also provides customized freight movement, revenue equipment, labor, systems, and delivery services. The company's local and home delivery services typically are provided through a network of cross-dock service centers throughout the continental United States. The company's segments include Intermodal, Dedicated Contract Services?, Integrated Capacity Solutions, and Truckload.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Class A

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings is a truckload carrier and a provider of transportation solutions. The company provides multiple truckload transportation, intermodal, and logistics services using a nationwide network of business units and terminals in the United States and Mexico. In addition to its truckload services, the company contracts with third-party capacity providers to provide a range of truckload services to its customers. The company operates company tractors, independent contractor tractors, and trailers within its Knight Trucking, Swift Truckload, Swift Dedicated, and Swift Refrigerated segments. Additionally, the company operates tractors and intermodal containers within its Swift Intermodal segment.

Marten Transport Ltd.

Marten Transport is a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier. The company has four segments: Truckload, which provides regional short-haul and medium-to-long-haul full-load transportation services; Dedicated, which provides customized transportation solutions using temperature-controlled trailers, dry vans and other equipment; Intermodal, which transports customers' freight using its temperature-controlled trailers on railroad flatcars for portions of trips, with the balance of the trips using its tractors or, to a lesser extent, contracted carriers; and Brokerage, which arranges for third-party carriers to transport freight for its customers in temperature-controlled trailers and dry vans.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd.

Marvell Technology Group is a semiconductor provider of application-specific products. The company is focused on the development of System-on-a-Chip devices, utilizing its technology portfolio of intellectual property in the areas of analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing, and embedded and standalone integrated circuits. The company develops integrated hardware platforms along with software that incorporates digital computing technologies. In storage, the company is engaged in fibre channel products and data storage controller solutions spanning cloud, enterprise, edge and personal computing markets. The company's networking products include ethernet solutions, embedded processors and WiFi connectivity solutions.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless semiconductor company. The company designs, develops and markets power solutions for systems found in consumer, computing and storage, automotive, industrial, communications and consumer applications. The company's primary product families include the following: Direct Current (DC) to DC products, which are used to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems such as portable electronic devices, wireless Local Area Network access points, computers, and monitors, automobiles and medical equipment; and Lighting Control Products, which include lighting control integrated circuits that are used in backlighting and general illumination products.

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.

Old Dominion Freight Line is a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier providing regional, inter-regional and national LTL services, which include expedited transportation. In addition to the company's primary LTL services, the company provides a range of services including container drayage, truckload brokerage and supply chain consulting. The company also provides access to its systems through multiple gateways that provide its customers and employees flexibility and access to information. The company employs vehicle safety systems, on-board and hand-held computer systems, freight handling systems and logistics technology to reduce costs and transit times.

ON Semiconductor Corporation

ON Semiconductor is engaged in energy efficient electronics. The company is organized into three segments: Power Solutions Group, which provides a range of discrete, module and integrated semiconductor products; Analog Solutions Group, which designs and develops analog, mixed-signal, and advanced logic application specific integrated circuits and Application Specific Standard Product, and power solutions; and Image Sensor Group, which designs and develops complementary metal oxide semiconductor and charge-coupled device image sensors, as well as proximity sensors, image signal processors and actuator drivers for autofocus and image stabilization for automotive and industrial markets, among others.

P.A.M. Transportation Services Inc.

P.A.M. Transportation Services is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a truckload dry van carrier transporting general commodities throughout the continental U.S., as well as in certain Canadian provinces. The company also provides transportation services in Mexico under agreements with Mexican carriers. The company's operations are classified into: truckload services, which generally utilize the company-owned trucks, long-term contractors, or single-trip contractors to transport loads of freight for customers; or brokerage and logistics services, which coordinate or facilitate the transport of loads of freight for customers and generally involve the utilization of single-trip contractors.

RENESOLA ADS

Saia Inc.

Saia is a transportation company. The company provides regional and interregional less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. The company also provides customers a range of other services, including non-asset truckload, expedited and logistics services across North America. The company's subsidiary, Saia Motor Freight Line, LLC (Saia LTL Freight) is an LTL carrier that serves several states. Saia LTL Freight is engaged in providing its customers a range of regional and interregional LTL services including time-definite and expedited options. Saia LTL Freight primarily provides its customers with solutions for shipments between 100 and 10,000 pounds.

Schneider National Inc. Class B

Schneider National is a transportation and logistics services company providing a portfolio of truckload, intermodal, and logistics solutions and operating for-hire trucking fleets. The company categorizes its operations into the following segments: truckload, which consists of freight transported and delivered with equipment by the company's company-employed drivers in company trucks and by owner-operators; intermodal, which consists of door-to-door container on flat car service by a combination of rail and over-the-road transportation; and logistics, which consists of non-asset freight brokerage services, supply chain services (including third-party businesses), and import/export services.

SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

SolarEdge Technologies designs, develops, and sells an intelligent inverter solution designed for power generation at the individual photovoltaic module level. The company's products consist mainly of power optimizers designed to maximize energy throughput from each and every module via constant tracking of Maximum Power Point individually per module; inverters, which invert direct current from the PV module to alternating current; a related cloud-based monitoring platform; and a storage solution that is used to increase energy independence and maximize self-consumption for homeowners by utilizing a battery that is sold separately by third party manufacturers, to store and supply power as needed.

Stabilus SA

Stabilus SA, formerly Servus HoldCo SARL is a Luxembourg-based company. The Company is the automotive and industrial supplier. It develops and produces electromechanical drives, gas springs and dampers. Its products in the automotive segment are used in a broad range of applications such as tailgates, hoods, doors and convertible tops. In addition, Stabilus SA supplies industrial customers, for example in medical and rehab technology (operating tables, hospital beds, wheelchairs), transportation and traffic (flaps and lids for luggage, loading and maintenance), furniture (cabinet lids, beds, tables) and house and building technology (skylights, smoke exhaust vents, awnings).

SunPower Corporation

SunPower is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an energy company that delivers solar solutions to residential, commercial, and power plant customers worldwide. The company has two segments: SunPower Energy Services, which refers to sales of solar energy solutions in the North America including direct sales of turn-key engineering, procurement and construction services, and sales to resellers, among other; and SunPower Technologies, which refers to its technology development, worldwide solar panel manufacturing operations, equipment supply to resellers, commercial and residential end-customers outside of North America, and worldwide power plant project development and project sales.

Sunrun Inc.

Sunrun is engaged in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems. The company's main solar service offerings are provided through its lease and power purchase agreements, which it refers to as its Customer Agreements. While homeowners have the option to purchase a solar energy system outright from the company, a majority of its customers choose to buy solar as a service through its Customer Agreements. With its solar service offerings, the company installs solar energy systems on its customers' homes and provides them the solar power produced by those systems. In addition, the company monitors, maintains and insures the system during the term of the contract.

Xilinx Inc.

Xilinx designs and develops programmable devices and associated technologies, including: integrated circuits (ICs) in the form of programmable logic devices (PLDs), including programmable System on Chips and three-dimensional ICs; Adaptive Compute Acceleration Platform, a multi-core heterogeneous compute platform; software design tools to program the PLDs; software development environments and embedded platforms; targeted reference designs; printed circuit boards; and intellectual property (IP), which consists of the company and third-party verification and IP cores. In addition to its programmable platforms, the company provides design services, customer training, field engineering and technical support.

Yellow Corporation

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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