Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.02 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Breakouts On The Horizon

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are within striking distance of all-time highs and we believe breakouts are on the horizon. Overall, our outlook remains bullish and we recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

· S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 continues its multi-week consolidation phase following big gains in early November. We believe this consolidation sets the stage for a meaningful advance once the S&P 500 is able to break above 3645 short-term resistance. Short-term support levels to watch include 3550 followed by 3510-3520, and we are bullish as long as these levels hold. The Nasdaq 100 is similarly poised for a breakout following almost three months of consolidation... see charts below.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Cyclicals continue to outperform relative to defensives. Semiconductors remain leadership within Technology, something we view as a bullish sign for the broad market considering their role as the crude oil of the digital world. On page 3 we highlight an actionable idea: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Within Consumer Discretionary, retail and apparel stocks remain leadership. Two actionable ideas highlighted on page 3 include Lululemon (LULU) and Nike (NKE)... see pages 2-3.

· Big Picture Trends. The US dollar (DXY) is on the cusp of a breakdown below key support at 92; we continue to believe a decisive breakdown below 92 would be a risk-on signal for global equities. High yield spreads remain on a narrowing path and are hitting multi-month lows, something that signals confidence in the economy and lends itself to higher stock prices. Broad commodities and crude oil prices are hitting new post-COVID highs, a bullish sign for commodity Sectors and also the global economy, which suggests demand expectations are improving... see pages 4-5.
Underlyings
Advansix Inc.

AdvanSix is a manufacturer of Nylon 6, a polymer resin which is a synthetic material used by the company's customers to produce plastics, fibers, filaments and films that, in turn, are used in such end-products as automotive and electronic components, carpets, sports apparel, fishing nets and food and industrial packaging. The company also sells other products including caprolactam, ammonium sulfate fertilizers, and other chemical intermediates. The company sells its Nylon 6 resin under the Aegis? brand name, its nylon films under the Capran? brand name and its ammonium sulfate fertilizer under the Sulf-N? brand name. Chemical intermediates are also sold under the brand names of Nadone?, Naxol? and EZ-Blox?.

Aspen Aerogels

Aspen Aerogels is an aerogel technology company that designs, develops and manufactures aerogel insulation used primarily in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets. The company also conducts research and development related to aerogel technology. The company's product lines include: Pyrogel XT-E, which is designed for use in refineries and petrochemical facilities; Pyrogel XTF, which is designed to provide protection against fire; Cryogel Z, which is designed for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea, which is designed for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production.

Boot Barn Holdings

Boot Barn Holdings is a retail chain focused on western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories. The company's stores, which are freestanding or located in strip centers, feature an assortment of brands and styles, coupled with store associates. The company's product offering is anchored by a selection of western and work boots and an assortment of coordinating apparel and accessories. The company also carries assortments of denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, western-style jewelry and accessories. The company's work assortment includes footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim and shirts for the physically demanding jobs.

Caledonia Mining Corporation

Caledonia Mining Corporation is engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral properties for the exploitation of base and precious metals focused on Southern Africa. Co.'s primary asset is a 49% interest in the Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe which produced over 50,351 ounces of gold in 2016. Its segments include Corporate, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. The Corporate segment includes administrative functions within the group. The Zimbabwe segment comprise Caledonia Holdings Zimbabwe Ltd. and subsidiaries. The South Africa segment comprises a gold mine, that is on care and maintenance, as well as sales made by Caledonia Mining South Africa Proprietary Limited to the Blanket Mine.

China Automotive Systems ADS (N Shares)

China Automotive Systems is a holding company. Co.'s operations are conducted via wholly owned subsidiaries and Sino-foreign joint ventures. Co. is engaged in, among others, the marketing of automotive parts, and providing after sales service and research and development support; the production of rack and pinion power steering gear for cars and light duty vehicles, power steering gears for heavy-duty vehicles and power steering parts for light duty vehicles; the production and sales of sensor modules, automobile steering systems, automobile steering columns; and the design, development and manufacture of both hydraulic and electric power steering systems and parts.

Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.

Cooper-Standard Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a manufacturer of sealing, fuel and brake delivery, and fluid transfer systems. The company's sealing systems protect vehicle interiors from weather, dust and noise intrusion. In addition, the company's fuel and brake delivery systems sense, deliver and control fluids to fuel and brake systems. The company's fluid transfer systems sense, deliver and control fluid and vapors for powertrain and HVAC operation. The company has four operating segments: North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and South America.

Crane Co.

Crane is a manufacturer of engineered industrial products. The company's segments are: Fluid Handling, which is a provider of engineered fluid handling equipment; Payment and Merchandising Technologies, which provides payment acceptance products, supplies banknotes and banknote security features designs, and manufactures vending equipment and related solutions; Aerospace and Electronics, which supplies components and systems for the commercial aerospace and military aerospace and defense markets; and Engineered Materials, which manufactures fiberglass-reinforced plastic panels and coils, primarily for use in the manufacturing of recreational vehicles, truck bodies, truck trailers.

Dana Incorporated

Dana is engaged in providing power-conveyance and energy-management solutions for vehicles and machinery. The company's operating segments are: Light Vehicle Drive Systems, which include light trucks (full frame), sport utility vehicles, crossover utility vehicles, vans, and passenger cars; Commercial Vehicle Drive and Motion Systems, which include medium duty trucks, heavy duty trucks, buses, and specialty vehicles; Off-Highway Drive and Motion Systems, which iinclude construction, earth moving, agricultural, mining, forestry, material handling, and industrial stationary; and Power Technologies, which include medium/heavy vehicle market, and off-highway market.

Designer Brands Inc. Class A

Designer Brands is a footwear and accessories designer, producer and retailer. The company has three segments: U.S. Retail, which includes stores operated in the U.S. under the DSW Designer Shoe Warehouse banner and its related e-commerce site; Canada Retail, which includes stores operated in Canada under The Shoe Company, Shoe Warehouse, and DSW Designer Shoe Warehouse banners and related e-commerce sites; and Brand Portfolio, which includes sales from wholesale, serving retailers as the design and buying agent for products under private labels, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce sites. The company separates its merchandise into three categories: women's footwear; men's footwear; and accessories and other.

Gates Industrial Corp

Genesco Inc.

Genesco is a retailer and wholesaler of branded footwear, apparel and accessories. The company's segments include: Journeys Group, which includes Journeys, Journeys Kidz and Little Burgundy retail stores, e-commerce and catalog operations and sells footwear and accessories for young men, women and children; Schuh Group, which includes e-commerce operations and sells a range of branded casual and athletic footwear along with a private label offering; Johnston & Murphy Group, which includes retail stores, e-commerce and catalog operations and wholesale distribution; and Licensed Brands, which includes include the sale of footwear marketed under the Dockers? brand.

Gentherm Incorporated

Gentherm designs, develops, and manufactures thermal management technologies. The company's products provide solutions for automotive passenger comfort, battery thermal management, remote power generation, patient temperature management, and other consumer and industrial temperature control needs. The company has two segments: Automotive, which includes climate comfort systems, automotive cable systems, battery thermal management, and automotive electronic and software systems; and Industrial, which includes the company's remote power generation systems business, its patient temperature management systems business, its environmental testing equipment business and its research and product development division.

Harsco Corporation

Harsco is a provider of environmental solutions for industrial and specialty waste streams, and equipment and technology for the rail sector. The company's segments are: Harsco Environmental, which is a provider of environmental services and material processing to the global steel and metals industries; Harsco Clean Earth, which provides processing and reuse solutions for hazardous wastes, contaminated materials, and dredged volumes through its facilities; and Harsco Rail, which is a supplier of equipment, after-market parts and services for the construction and maintenance of railway track as well as a supplier of collision avoidance and warning systems.

Ingevity Corporation

Ingevity is a manufacturer of specialty chemicals and activated carbon materials. The company reports in two business segments: Performance Materials, which manufactures and sells hardwood-based, chemically activated carbon products, produced through a technical and specialized process primarily for use in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats; and Performance Chemicals, which is comprised of four application areas (pavement technologies, oilfield technologies, industrial specialties, and engineered polymers), develops, manufactures, and sells a range of specialty chemicals primarily derived from co-products of the kraft pulping process and caprolactone.

Innospec Inc.

Innospec develops, manufactures, blends, markets and supplies chemicals for use as fuel additives, and ingredients for personal care, home care, agrochemical, mining and other applications and oilfield chemicals. The company has four segments: Fuel Specialties, which develops, manufactures, blends, markets and supplies a range of chemical products; Performance Chemicals, which provides products focused on the personal care, home care, agrochemical and mining markets; Oilfield Services, which develops and markets products to prevent loss of mud in drilling operations, and chemical solutions; and Octane Additives, which comprises sales of tetra ethyl lead for use in automotive gasoline.

ITT Inc.

ITT is a manufacturer of engineered components and customized technology solutions for the transportation, industrial, and oil and gas markets. The company's segments are: Motion Technologies, which manufactures brake pads, shims, shock absorbers, energy absorption components, and sealing technologies; Industrial Process, which provides a portfolio of industrial pumps, valves, and plant optimization systems and services; and Connect and Control Technologies, which designs and manufactures a range of connectors and products for applications supporting various markets including aerospace and defense, industrial, transportation, medical, and oil and gas.

Kadant Inc.

Kadant is a supplier of equipment and components used in process industries worldwide. Through its Papermaking Systems segment, the company develops, manufactures, and markets equipment and products for the global papermaking, paper recycling, recycling and waste management, and other process industries. Through its Wood Processing Systems segment, the company develops, manufactures, and markets stranders and related equipment used in the production of oriented strand board. Through its Fiber-based Products business, the company manufactures and sells granules derived from papermaking by-products for use as carriers for agricultural, home lawn and garden, and lawn, turf and ornamental applications.

Meritor Inc.

Meritor is a global supplier of a range of integrated systems, modules and components to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the aftermarket for the commercial vehicle, transportation and industrial sectors. The company serves commercial truck, trailer, military, bus and coach, construction, and other industrial OEMs and certain aftermarkets. The company's segments are: Commercial Truck, which supplies drivetrain systems and components, including axles, drivelines and braking and suspension systems; and Aftermarket, Industrial and Trailer, which supplies axles, brakes, drivelines, suspension parts and other replacement parts to commercial vehicle and industrial aftermarket customers.

Modine Manufacturing Company

Modine Manufacturing is engaged in providing thermal management solutions. The company is a provider of engineered heat transfer systems and heat transfer components for use in on- and off-highway original equipment manufacturer vehicular applications. In addition, the company is involved in thermal management technology and solutions for sale into a range of commercial, industrial, and building heating, ventilating, air conditioning, and refrigeration markets. The company's primary product groups include powertrain cooling and engine cooling; coils, coolers, and coatings; and heating, ventilation and air conditioning.

Quaker Chemical Corporation

Quaker Chemical develops, produces, and markets a range of formulated specialty chemical products and provides chemical management services for various industrial and manufacturing applications throughout its four segments: Americas; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Asia/Pacific; and Global Specialty Businesses. The primary product lines of the company include metal removal fluids, cleaning fluids, corrosion inhibitors, metal drawing and forming fluids, die cast mold releases, heat treatment and quenchants, metal forging fluids, hydraulic fluids, specialty greases, offshore sub-sea energy control fluids, rolling lubricants, rod and wire drawing fluids and surface treatment chemicals.

Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc

Rayonier Advanced Materials is a manufacturer of cellulose products, lumber, and pulp & paper products. The company's operating segments are: High Purity Cellulose, which manufactures and markets cellulose, which is sold as either cellulose specialties or commodity products that is primarily used in dissolving chemical applications; Forest Products, which the lumber, primarily spruce, pine, or fir, is used in the construction of residential and multi-family homes, light industrial and commercial facilities, and the home repair and remodel markets; Pulp, which manufactures and markets pulp products; and Paper, which manufactures and markets paper products consisting of paperboard and newsprint.

Shoe Carnival Inc.

Shoe Carnival is a family footwear retailers. The company provides customers a a range of dress, casual and athletic footwear for men, women and children with an emphasis on national name brands. The company operates stores in the states and Puerto Rico and provides online shopping at www.shoecarnival.com. The company's stores carry complementary accessories such as socks, belts, shoe care items, handbags, sport bags, backpacks, scarves and wallets, while its e-commerce site provides certain handbags, sport bags and backpacks. Women's, men's and children's non-athletic footwear categories are further divided into dress, casual, sport, sandals and boots.

SPX Corporation

SPX is a supplier of infrastructure equipment serving the heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC), detection and measurement, power transmission and generation, and industrial markets. The company's segments are: HVAC, which engineers, designs, manufactures, installs and services cooling products and heating and ventilation products; Detection and Measurement, which engineers, designs, manufactures and installs underground pipe and cable locators, inspection and rehabilitation equipment, bus fare collection systems, communication technologies, and obstruction lighting; and Engineered Solutions, which engineers, designs, manufactures, installs and services transformers and process cooling equipment.

Standex International Corporation

Standex International is a manufacturing company. The company's segments include: Food Service Equipment, which provides refrigeration, display merchandising and component pumps for the Commercial Food Service and Life Sciences markets; Engraving, which creates textures and surface finishes on tooling; Engineering Technologies, which provides metal-formed solutions for Original Equipment Manufacturers and Tier-1 manufacturers; Electronics, which provides custom magnetic sensing and power conversion components and assemblies; and Hydraulics, which manufactures mobile hydraulic cylinders and complete hydraulic systems for the heavy off-road construction and refuse markets.

Strattec Security Corp.

Strattec Security designs, develops, manufactures and markets automotive access control products including mechanical locks and keys, electronically improved locks and keys, steering column and instrument panel ignition lock housings, latches, power sliding side door systems, power lift gate systems, power deck lid systems, door handles and related products for North American automotive customers. The company also supplies global automotive manufacturers through a joint venture relationship with WITTE Automotive (WITTE) and ADAC Plastics Inc. (ADAC). Under this relationship the company, WITTE and ADAC market the products of each company to global customers under the VAST Automotive Group brand name.

Superior Industries International Inc.

Superior Industries International is engaged in the design and manufacture of aluminum wheels for sale to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in North America and Europe and aftermarket distributors in Europe. The company's OEM aluminum wheels are primarily sold for factory installation on vehicle models manufactured by BMW (including Mini), Daimler AG Company (Mercedes-Benz, AMG, Smart), FCA, Ford, GM, Honda, Jaguar-Land Rover, Mazda, Nissan, PSA, Renault, Subaru, Suzuki, Toyota, VW Group (Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, Skoda, Porsche, Bentley) and Volvo. The company also sells aluminum wheels to the European aftermarket under the brands ATS, RIAL, ALUTEC and ANZIO.

The Shyft Group Inc

Tronox Holdings Plc

Valhi Inc.

Venator Materials PLC

Visteon Corporation

Visteon is an automotive supplier that designs, engineers and manufactures cockpit electronics and connected car solutions for vehicle manufacturers. The company's products include: Instrument Clusters, which provides standard analog gauge clusters to 2-D, and 3-D display-based devices; Information Displays, which provides information displays for applications within the cockpit; Audio and Infotainment Systems, which includes Phoenix? display audio and embedded infotainment platform; Telematics Solutions, which provides telematics control unit; Head-Up Displays (HUD), which includes combiner HUD; SmartCore? Domain Controller; and DriveCore? Autonomous Driving Controller.

Welbilt Inc

Welbilt is a commercial foodservice equipment company. The company designs, manufactures and supplies food and beverage equipment for the commercial foodservice market. The company's products are used by commercial and institutional foodservice operators including restaurants, quick-service restaurant chains, hotels, resorts, cruise ships, caterers, supermarkets, convenience stores, hospitals, schools and other institutions. The company's portfolio of brands includes Cleveland?, Convotherm?, Crem?, Delfield?, Frymaster?, Garland?, Kolpak?, Lincoln?, Manitowoc? Ice, Merco?, Merrychef? and Multiplex?. The company's products brands are supported by FitKitchen?, KitchenCare?, and KitchenConnect?.

Westlake Chemical Partners LP

Westport Fuels Systems

Westport Fuel Systems is engaged in developing technology to enable more environmentally sustainable engines without compromising the performance, fuel economy, durability, and reliability of diesel engines. The substitution of natural gas for petroleum-based fuel drives a significant reduction in harmful combustion emissions, such as nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and greenhouse gas, in addition to providing an abundant, relatively inexpensive alternative fuel. Co.'s systems can be used to enable combustion engines to use gaseous fuels, such as natural gas, propane, or hydrogen.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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