Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.92 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" that we have referenced since late March.

Financials, Copper, US Dollar. These three areas were a primary focus in last week's Compass, and they have since produced very bullish signals, including (1) a decisive breakout above $39 for Financials (XLF), (2) copper making a bullish reversal above $4.38, and (3) the US dollar holding below the major $94.70-$95 resistance level. These are all very bullish developments as they signal strong risk appetites... see chart below and page 3.
Upgrading Financials; Downgrading Communications. We are upgrading Financials to overweight; cap- and equal-weighted Financial Sectors (XLF, RYF), banks (KBE, KRE), and insurance stocks (KIE) are all breaking out to new highs in unison, as interest rates and spreads rise (i.e., 10/2's spread) -- add exposure. Meanwhile, growth areas have gotten hit, and we are downgrading the Communications Sector to market weight due to RS deterioration for the cap-weighted Sector (XLC) -- reduce exposure... see charts below and page 2.
Additional Risk-On Developments. Several areas are breaking out to new all-time highs, a bullish sign that signals strong risk appetites. Major breakouts can be seen in the Russell 1000 Value index (IWD), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and bitcoin. Buy pullbacks... see pages 4-5.
S&P 500. We noted last week that a break above 4430 in the S&P 500 would signal the pullback is over, and would be a buy signal. We got that breakout on Thursday of last week, and there has been healthy upside follow-through. The S&P 500 is now testing all-time high resistance at 4546. As long as the S&P 500 remains above supports at the 50-day MA (4442) and 4430, we expect to see new highs, targeting 4580 followed by 4675..
Underlyings
Advansix Inc.

AdvanSix is a manufacturer of Nylon 6, a polymer resin which is a synthetic material used by the company's customers to produce plastics, fibers, filaments and films that, in turn, are used in such end-products as automotive and electronic components, carpets, sports apparel, fishing nets and food and industrial packaging. The company also sells other products including caprolactam, ammonium sulfate fertilizers, and other chemical intermediates. The company sells its Nylon 6 resin under the Aegis? brand name, its nylon films under the Capran? brand name and its ammonium sulfate fertilizer under the Sulf-N? brand name. Chemical intermediates are also sold under the brand names of Nadone?, Naxol? and EZ-Blox?.

Ally Financial Inc

Ally Financial is a digital-financial services and financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial services and insurance products to automotive dealerships and consumers. The company's online bank provides mortgage-lending, personal lending and a variety of deposit and other banking products, including savings, money-market and checking accounts, certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts. Additionally, the company provides securities-brokerage and investment-advisory services through Ally Invest. The company's corporate-finance business provides capital for equity sponsors and middle-market companies.

APA Corporation

Arabian Cement Co

Arabian Cement Co SAE is an Egypt-based company engaged in the manufacture of cement and concrete. Its products include: Clinker, the raw material for the production of Portland types of cement, used in different percentages depending on the properties sought for the final product; Al Mosalah Cement, used for concrete with special needs, concrete pump, shotcrete, mortar and supporting floors, among others; Al Tahrir Cement, used for general construction purposes, general concrete works, reinforced and ordinary concrete, buildings, tanks, reservoirs and culverts; El Sadd Cement, used in all concrete works that are exposed to sea water or soils of high sulphate content, and Ready Mix Concrete, offered through the Company's subsidiary, Andalus Ready Mix Concrete. The Company offers its products in a variety of formats such as, bagged, bulk, big bags and in containers, among others.

Arcadian Partners LP

Aspen Aerogels

Aspen Aerogels is an aerogel technology company that designs, develops and manufactures aerogel insulation used primarily in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets. The company also conducts research and development related to aerogel technology. The company's product lines include: Pyrogel XT-E, which is designed for use in refineries and petrochemical facilities; Pyrogel XTF, which is designed to provide protection against fire; Cryogel Z, which is designed for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea, which is designed for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production.

Atlanticus Holdings Corp

Atlanticus Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides various credit and related financial services and products. The company has two segments: Credit and Other Investments, whereby the company supports lenders who originate consumer loan products that include retail credit and credit cards marketed through various channels, including retail point-of-sale, direct mail solicitation, and partnerships with third parties; and Auto Finance, which purchases and/or services loans secured by automobiles from or for, and also provides floor plan financing for, a pre-qualified network of automotive dealers and automotive finance companies in the buy-here, pay-here, used car business.

Balchem Corporation

Balchem is engaged in the development, manufacture and marketing of specialty performance ingredients and products for the food, nutritional, feed, pharmaceutical, medical sterilization and industrial markets. The company has four reportable segments: Human Nutrition & Health, which provides human grade choline nutrients and mineral amino acid chelated products for nutrition wellness applications; Animal Nutrition & Health, which provides nutritional products in addition to basic choline chloride; Specialty Products, which provides ethylene oxide and propylene oxide; and Industrial Products, which provides certain derivatives of choline chloride, as well as manufactures and sells methylamines.

CF Industries Holdings Inc.

CF Industries Holdings is a global fertilizer and chemical company. The company's principal nitrogen fertilizer products are anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution and ammonium nitrate. The company's other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to its industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products, which are solid granular fertilizer products for which the nutrient content is a combination of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The company serves its customers in North America through its production, storage, transportation and distribution network.

CIT Group Inc.

CIT Group is a bank and a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides financing, leasing and advisory services to middle-market companies and small businesses in a range of industries in North America. The company also provides banking and related services to commercial and individual customers through its banking subsidiary. The company has three operating segments: Commercial Banking, which include Commercial Finance, Rail, Real Estate Finance, and Business Capital; Consumer Banking, which includes Retail Banking, Consumer Lending, and Small Business Administration Lending; and Non-Strategic Portfolios, which includes businesses and portfolios that the company no longer consider strategic.

Compass Diversified Holdings

Compass Diversified Holdings is a statutory trust that acquires and manages a group of small and middle-market businesses. The company's businesses include: branded consumer businesses, which includes its subsidiary, 5.11 ABR Corp., that provides purpose-built tactical apparel and gear for law enforcement, firefighters, EMS, and military special operations as well as outdoor and adventure enthusiasts; and niche industrial businesses, which includes its subsidiary, Foam Fabricators Inc., that designs and manufactures custom molded protective foam solutions and original equipment manufacturer components made from expanded polystyrene and other expanded polymers.

Credit Acceptance Corporation

Credit Acceptance provides financing programs that enable automobile dealers to sell vehicles to consumers. The company refers to automobile dealers who participate in its programs as Dealers. The company has two programs: the Portfolio Program and the Purchase Program. Under the Portfolio Program, the company advances money to Dealers in exchange for the right to service the underlying retail installment contracts (Consumer Loans). Under the Purchase Program, the company buys the Consumer Loans from the Dealers and keeps all the amounts collected from the consumer. The company provides Dealers the ability to provide vehicle service contracts to consumers through its relationships with Third Party Providers.

Hawkins Inc.

Hawkins distributes, blends and manufactures chemicals and ingredients for its customers. The company's segments are: Industrial, which provides industrial chemicals, products and services to industries such as agriculture, chemical processing, and plating; Water Treatment, which provides chemicals, equipment and solutions for potable water, municipal and industrial wastewater, industrial process water and non-residential swimming pool water; and Health and Nutrition, which provides ingredient distribution, processing and formulation solutions to manufacturers of nutraceutical, functional food and beverage, personal care, dietary supplement and other nutritional food, health and wellness products.

ICL Group Ltd.

Israel Chemicals, through its subsidiaries, extracts raw materials and utilizes processing and product formulation technologies to add value to customers in the areas of agriculture, electronics, food, fuel and gas exploration, water purification and desalination, detergents, cosmetics, medicines and vehicles. Co. operates two segments: Essential Minerals and Specialty Solutions. The Essential Minerals segment includes the ICL Potash & Magnesium, ICL Phosphate and ICL Specialty Fertilizers business lines. The Specialty Solutions segment includes four business lines: ICL Industrial Products; ICL Specialty Fertilizers; ICL Advanced Additives and ICL Food Specialties.

Intrepid Potash

Janus Henderson Group PLC

Janus Henderson Group is a global investment manager. Co. manages a range of investment products for institutional and retail investors, across five capabilities, being European Equities, Global Equities, Global Fixed Income, Multi-Asset and Alternatives, including Private Equity and Property. Management operates across product lines, distribution channels and geographic regions. All investment product types are sold in most, if not all, of these regions and are managed in various locations. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had total assets under management of £101.00 billion.

KKR & Co. Inc.

KKR & Co. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an investment firm that manages various alternative asset classes including private equity, energy, infrastructure, real estate and credit, with strategic partners that manage hedge funds. The company's business lines include: Private Markets, in which the company manages and sponsors a group of private equity funds that invest capital for long-term appreciation, either through controlling ownership of a company or strategic minority positions; Public Markets, in which the company operates its combined credit and hedge funds platforms; and Capital Markets, which develops and implements capital solutions for investments or companies seeking financing.

LendingClub Corp

LendingClub is an online lending marketplace connecting borrowers and investors. The company's subsidiary, LC Trust I (the Trust), acquires loans from the company and holds them for the sole benefit of certain investors that have purchased trust certificates issued by the Trust that are related to underlying loans for the benefit of the investor. The company's subsidiary, Springstone Financial LLC, facilitates the origination of education and patient finance loans by third-party issuing banks. Also, the company's subsidiary, LendingClub Asset Management LLC, acts as the general partner for private funds. The company's lending marketplace facilitates Personal Loans, Auto Refinancing Loans, and Small Business Loans, among other.

LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

LPL Financial Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the retail financial advice market and independent broker-dealer. The company's product and solution access includes: Commission-Based Products, which include variable and fixed annuities, mutual funds, equities, and insurance, among others; Fee-Based Advisory Platforms and Support, which include wrap-fee programs, mutual fund asset allocation programs, financial planning services, and retirement plan consulting services; and Cash Sweep Programs, which manage their clients' cash balances through a money market sweep vehicle involving money market fund providers and insured sweep vehicles involving banks.

LSB Industries Inc.

LSB Industries is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company manufactures and markets chemical products. Within its agricultural products, the company produces and sells urea ammonia nitrate, high density ammonium nitrate (HDAN) and ammonia, all of which are nitrogen-based fertilizers. Within its industrial acids and other chemical products, the company manufactures and sells industrial acids and other chemical products primarily to the polyurethane intermediates, paper, fibers, emission control, and electronics industries. Within its mining products, the company produces and sells low density ammonium nitrate, HDAN and ammonium nitrate (AN) solution to the mining industry.

Mosaic Company

Mosaic is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company is organized into three reportable business segments: Phosphates, which owns and operates mines and production facilities in Florida that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, and processing plants in Louisiana that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients; Potash, which mines and processes potash in Canada and the United States and sells potash in North America and internationally; and Mosaic Fertilizantes, which produces and sells concentrated phosphates crop nutrients, phosphate-based animal feed ingredients and potash fertilizer.

OneMain Holdings Inc.

OneMain Holdings is a financial service holding company. The company provides origination, underwriting and servicing of personal loans to non-prime customers. Within its consumer and insurance segment, the company originates and services secured and unsecured personal loans and provides optional credit and non-credit insurance and related products through its combined branch network and its centralized operations. Personal loan origination and servicing, along with its insurance products, forms the core of the company's operations. The company's insurance business is conducted through its wholly-owned insurance subsidiaries, American Health and Life Insurance Company and Triton Insurance Company.

Somec

Somec SpA is an Italy-based holding company, which designs and manufactures glass envelopes for cruise ships and special architectural projects. The Company provides products, systems and services based on clients' needs. It supplies prefabricated balconies, balcony sliding and hinged doors, balcony automatic doors, balcony balustrades and partitions, as well as wheelhouse windows, glass walls for public spaces, windscreens, special glazing for solarium, skywalks and skylights, fire-rated doors and glazing. Through its subsidiaries, the Company operates in the shipyards, in dry-docks and navigation to guarantee the product installation, renovation and maintenance. The Company operates in Italy, Germany, Spain, Finland, France, Japan, Australia, North and Central America.

Tronox Holdings Plc

Walker & Dunlop Inc.

Walker & Dunlop is a holding company and conducts the majority of its operations through Walker & Dunlop, LLC, its operating company. The company originates, sells, and services a range of multifamily and other commercial real estate financing products, provides multifamily property sales brokerage services, and engages in commercial real estate investment management activities. The company's commercial real estate finance products include first mortgage, second trust, supplemental, construction, small-balance, and bridge/interim loans. The company provides property sales services to owners and developers of multifamily properties and commercial real estate investment management services for various investors.

World Acceptance Corporation

World Acceptance is a small-loan consumer finance company, providing short-term small installment loans, medium-term larger installment loans, related credit insurance and ancillary products and services to individuals. The company serves individuals with limited access to other sources of consumer credit such as banks, credit unions, other consumer finance businesses and credit card lenders. The company also provides income tax return preparation services to its loan customers and other individuals. Using the proprietary data processing software package developed by its subsidiary, ParaData Financial Systems, the company automates all of its loan account processing and collection reporting.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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